E continua ... a evolução do CO2

Figure Figure 3: CO2 levels (parts per million) over the past 10,000 years. Blue line derived from ice cores obtained at Taylor Dome, Antarctica (NOAA). Green line derived from ice cores obtained at Law Dome, East Antarctica (CDIAC). Red line from direct measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (NOAA).

A visual deconstruction of a skeptic argument 

Nota: É a imagem final da última nota. E não é que o período do aquecimento medieval até tem um pico de CO2?

E continua ... explicação com imagens

A visual deconstruction of a skeptic argument: "[...] The argument is 'Human CO2 emissions are small compared to natural emissions'. Humans emit 29 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide every year. In contrast, land and vegetation emit 439 gigatonnes and the ocean emits 332 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year. One cannot deny that 29 gigatonnes of human emissions is small compared to 771 gigatonnes of natural emissions. But is this the full picture?" 

 
Figure 1: Human CO2 emissions compared to natural CO2 emissions. Numbers represent flux of carbon dioxide in gigatonnes (Figure 7.3 in the IPCC AR4).

What this argument fails to disclose is that nature both emits and absorbs carbon dioxide. [...]The net contribution of carbon dioxide from nature is -17 gigatonnes per year. A more complete picture of the carbon cycle is depicted in Figure 2:

 
Figure 2: Global carbon cycle. Numbers represent flux of carbon dioxide in gigatonnes (Figure 7.3 in the IPCC AR4).

Figures 1 and 2 are a visual demonstration of the dangers of focusing on one piece of puzzle while ignoring the broader picture. A false argument doesn't necessarily have to contain falsehoods - omitting all the facts can be enough to paint a misleading picture. In this case, a fuller understanding of the carbon cycle shows us that the climate is in approximate balance. Carbon dioxide levels have remained at relatively steady levels over the past 10,000 years. In fact, current CO2 levels of 385 parts per million are the highest in 15 to 20 million years (Tripati 2009). 

A figura 3 apresento-a na nota seguinte:

E continua ... quem são os inocentes?

Retirei isto do Climate Progress ("watch Ross Gelbspan's video..." December 27, 2009). Descreve como as indústrias fósseis têm tentado, e conseguido, formatar a opinião pública e a comunicação social quanto ao debate sobre o aquecimento global.

Nota: Consegue-se ver com o écran completo.

PS: Acabei de ver o vídeo. Não era aquilo que estava à espera - estava a contar com uma denúncia mais extensa da formatação referida acima, e o que sucede é que se trata  em grande parte, da apresentação de um programa para actuar, bem intencionado, mas, muito provavelmente, com aspectos impraticáveis por motivos políticos, ou tecnológicos. Vale, no entanto, ver e ouvir, não só como denúncia daquele aspecto, mas também como demonstração de como vai o desespero de muita gente que está preocupada com tudo isto. Eu estou muito preocupado, e você?

E continua ... ora, isto devia ser óbvio, mas é precisamente por isto que "eles" criaram, de fio a pavio, a idéia da ciência do aquecimento global ser controvertida (como antes o conseguiram com a ciência dos efeitos do tabaco; com a ciência dos efeitos do chumbo - ah!, então, não sabiam o que custou para termos a gasolina sem chumbo?). Vejam por favor a nota abaixo de 21.12.09

Warming or not, we must end global oil economy: "As the world's leaders begin a second round of climate talks, it would behoove those who question the science behind global warming to understand that the world's current energy policy is unsustainable. This means that the proposed carbon reduction goals will help drive the world towards new sources of energy -- a good thing for all. The assembled international presidents and prime ministers must attempt to set realistic goals that address the issues that can be tackled, and new sources of energy should be at the top of the to-do list."

Astronomy Picture of the Day - 2009 December 26: Galáxia M51

M51 Hubble Remix 

S. Beckwith (STScI), Hubble Heritage Team, (STScI/AURA), ESA, NASA Additional Processing: Robert Gendler 

Explanation: The 51st entry in Charles Messier's famous catalog is perhaps the original spiral nebula - a large galaxy with a well defined spiral structure also cataloged as NGC 5194. Over 60,000 light-years across, M51's spiral arms and dust lanes clearly sweep in front of its companion galaxy (right), NGC 5195. Image data from the Hubble's Advanced Camera for Surveys has been reprocessed to produce this alternative portrait of the well-known interacting galaxy pair. The processing has further sharpened details and enhanced color and contrast in otherwise faint areas, bringing out dust lanes and extended streams that cross the small companion, along with features in the surroundings and core of M51 itself. The pair are about 31 million light-years distant. Not far on the sky from the handle of the Big Dipper, they officially lie within the boundaries of the small constellation Canes Venatici."

Astronomy Picture of the Day: NASA (Archive, 2009 December 26)

Nota: Clicar na imagem para ter acesso a uma versão maior

E continua ... as notas do Climate Progress mais comentadas em 2009

The most-discussed Climate Progress posts of 2009 « Climate Progress

 

This list of most-commented-on posts is, I think, an okay introduction to Climate Progress (though I’d still recommend starting with the articles on the right hand column) — but it’s an even better introduction to the terrific set of readers that make CP’s comments section so lively and informative:

75 (comments). High Water: Greenland ice sheet melting faster than expected and could raise East Coast sea levels an extra 20 inches by 2100 — to more than 6 feet

77. Breaking: NOAA puts out “El Niño Watch,” so record temperatures are coming and this will be the hottest decade on record

83. The U.S. House of Representatives approves landmark (bipartisan!) climate bill, 219 – 212. Waxman-Markey would complete America’s transition to a clean energy economy, which started with the stimulus bill.

86. How the world can (and will) stabilize at 350 to 450 ppm: The full global warming solution

91. Anti-science conservatives are stuck in denial but for climate science activists, the reverse is true

93. What are some questions and issues you want Climate Progress to address?[I think I addressed over half of the suggestions raised.]

100. Error-riddled ‘Superfreakonomics’: New book pushes global cooling myths, sheer illogic, and “patent nonsense” — and the primary climatologist it relies on, Ken Caldeira, says “it is an inaccurate portrayal of me” and “misleading” in “many” places.

104. Earth to John Christy: Misleading for free is wrong, too.

111. Memo to media, blogosphere: Swift boat smearer Marc Morano has no credibility. He is unquotable and uncitable.

113. Exclusive analysis, Part 1: The staggering cost of new nuclear power

186. National Solar Observatory, NASA say no “Maunder Minimum” — sorry, deniers — Solar Cycle 24 poised to rev up

201. Contest: Come up with a title for my book  [The response to that contest was amazing. While no one quite got the title that we ended up using, it did help inspire the final title, as I'll discuss in January.]

231. WattsUpWithThat labels people who advocate putting a price on global warming pollution as “criminal.”

279. An open letter to graduate students and young scientists in fields related to climate research from Dr. Judith Curry regarding hacked CRU emails

390. Exclusive: New NSIDC director Serreze explains the “death spiral” of Arctic ice, brushes off the “breathtaking ignorance” of blogs like WattsUpWithThat

As you can see, I’m getting a lot more comments than I did last year, which is no surprise since I have more than twice as many readers (not counting subscribers, which have increased 6-fold)."

Recomendação forte: utilizem o Climate Progress, juntamente com o Real Climate, Skeptical Science, e outros como fonte de informação, e de validação das questões que são ventiladas sobre o aquecimento global - recorram aos instrumentos de procura dos próprios blogues.

E continua ... Himalaia

Political Economy Research: Global Warming: Catastrophe from the Himalayas to the Bay of Bengal:

"As the Copenhagen summit continued, a stunning example of the killing and devastating effects global warming and climate change is already having on humanity came out in a story from the UK Guardian newspaper. Reporters for the paper wrote a story about a 1,000 mile journey they had undertaken—from the Himalayan mountains in Nepal to the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh where the rivers that start in the Himalayas empty out. These reporters wanted to observe and witness the actual effects of global warming on the people and ecosystems in this region. 

Their journey started in the high Himalayas—the roof of the world, a world of snow-capped peaks and awe-inspiring glaciers. But they found something else—evidence of immense changes that are occurring. They saw the Thulagi glacier—with a melted lake that has doubled in size in a few years and is held back by only a low wall of dead ice and earth. If the glacier continues to melt as it has, billions of gallons of water will burst through this dam and devastate villages and farmland below. Thulagi is just one of 20 growing glacial lakes in Nepal. Average temperatures in Nepal have risen 1.6 degees C in 50 years. But high in the mountains of Nepal, temperatures have risen 4 degees C and are expected to increase 8 degees C by 2050 at the current rate."

E continua ... os insectos ao barulho!

Global warming is already speeding up insect breeding « Climate Progress

"From a pest perspective it's an important issue."

December 26, 2009

Two butterfly species, the small heath (left) and common blue (right), have become more likely since 1980 to have multiple generations in Central Europe in the same year, as a long-term warming trend has picked up pace:

E continua ... The best climate cartoons of 2009 « Climate Progress

Apanhei o Climate Progress em erro (atenção aos denegacionistas do mundo!): são 11 cartoons e não 10.

Nota: Clicar em cima para obter uma imagem ampliada.

The best climate cartoons of 2009 « Climate Progress

Astronomy Picture of the Day - 2009 December 25: a nossa Galáxia

A Graceful Arc 

 Explanation: 

The graceful arc of the Milky Way begins and ends at two mountain peaks in this solemn night sky panorama. Created from a 24 frame mosaic, exposures tracking Earth and sky were made separately, with northern California's Mount Lassen at the left and Mount Shasta at the far right, just below the star and dust clouds of the galactic center. Lassen and Shasta are volcanoes in the Cascade Mountain Range of North America, an arc of the volcanic Pacific Ring of Fire. In the dim, snow-capped peaks, planet Earth seems to echo the subtle glow of the Milky Way's own faint, unresolved starlight."

Astronomy Picture of the Day: NASA, Tony Hallas (Archive, 2009 December 25)

Lido hoje

Going to America: A Ponzi scheme that works | The Economist: "The greatest strength of America is that people want to live there"

The idea of progress: Onwards and upwards | The Economist: "In the rich world the idea of progress has become impoverished. Through complacency and bitter experience, the scope of progress has narrowed. The popular view is that, although technology and GDP advance, morals and society are treading water or, depending on your choice of newspaper, sinking back into decadence and barbarism. On the left of politics these days, “progress” comes with a pair of ironic quotation marks attached; on the right, “progressive” is a term of abuse. It was not always like that. There has long been a tension between seeking perfection in life or in the afterlife. 

Optimists in the Enlightenment and the 19th century came to believe that the mass of humanity could one day lead happy and worthy lives here on Earth. Like Madach’s Adam, they were bursting with ideas for how the world might become a better place. Some thought God would bring about the New Jerusalem, others looked to history or evolution. Some thought people would improve if left to themselves, others thought they should be forced to be free; some believed in the nation, others in the end of nations; some wanted a perfect language, others universal education; some put their hope in science, others in commerce; some had faith in wise legislation, others in anarchy. Intellectual life was teeming with grand ideas. For most people, the question was not whether progress would happen, but how. 

The idea of progress forms the backdrop to a society. In the extreme, without the possibility of progress of any sort, your gain is someone else’s loss. If human behaviour is unreformable, social policy can only ever be about trying to cage the ape within. Society must in principle be able to move towards its ideals, such as equality and freedom, or they are no more than cant and self-delusion. So it matters if people lose their faith in progress. And it is worth thinking about how to restore it."

A happy Christmas – alone | Balaji Ravichandran | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk: "The meaning of Christmas, and its supposed power to bring friends and family together, is again in evidence this year. Jonathan Freedland admirably called for an end to loneliness, and urged social policy to address it – a sentiment echoed by a Guardian leader. I do not wish to detract from the importance of addressing chronic loneliness, particularly in the elderly. Many people end up alone, not just over the festive season, but for significantly longer periods, for want of company, and not of their own volition. It is easy to pity them (which is just offensive) and say that we must do more as a society to help them. What is significantly harder is to understand the nature of, and the causes behind, loneliness in various sections of society, and ask whether and where society should act. [...]
Thomas de Quincey, the famed intellectual who influenced Baudelaire and Borges, wrote: Solitude, though it may be silent as light, is like light – the mightiest of agencies; for solitude is essential. All come into this world alone; all leave it alone For those who willingly choose to spend their Christmas alone, this is my Christmas message."

E continua ... no Natal, também ...

Two Christmas Climate Cartoons « Climate Progress

E continua ... para ir lembrando factos básicos

The Truth About Climate Science « Climate Progress

Ora, aqui está um sugestão de oferta de um livro a um seu amigo, honesto, capaz de ler em inglês, que "acredite" ser esta "moda" da ecologia e das alterações climáticas mais uma tontice esquerdista como o Professor Pacheco Pereira, lucidamente, aponta... Ou, você já sabia disto? ... Ou, você considera tudo isto uma peça de desinformação da cabala para criar um estado mundial como um cronista do Diário Económico afirmou há algumas semanas atrás? ... Ou, você ignora que o tribunal já iniciou o seu julgamento, e que "o desconhecimento da lei (da verdade) a ninguém aproveita (não pode ser invocado)".

Amazon.com: Doubt is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health (9780195300673): David Michaels: Books: "Editorial Reviews Review

'In Doubt Is Their Product, David Michaels gives a lively and convincing history of how clever public relations has blocked one public health protection after another. The techniques first used to reassure us about tobacco were adapted to reassure us about asbestos, lead, vinyl chloride-and risks to nuclear facilities workers, where Dr. Michaels' experience as the relevant Assistant Secretary of Energy gave him an inside view. And if you're worried about climate change, keep worrying, because the same program is underway there.'--Donald Kennedy, Editor-in-Chief, Science

'We live in an age of unprecedented disinformation, misinformation, and outright lying by those in power. This important book shows who profits by misleading the public-and who ultimately pays with their health.'--Eric Schlosser, author of Fast Food Nation

'This well-researched book by someone who truly knows the system is a must read for anyone who wants to understand the cozy relationship between industry and regulatory agencies on matters that affect the health and safety of our families and neighbors. The cited examples illustrate how, with the help of irresponsible members of Congress and other public officials, corporate greed can trump any sense of ethics, morality, and human compassion.'--Neal Lane, former Science Advisor to President Bill Clinton and former Director of the National Science Foundation

'This brave, shocking book exposes the abuse of science by government and industry in ways that endanger the workplace, the home, the water supply, the air quality-in fact, our planet as a whole. David Michaels speaks authoritatively from his firsthand experience as a champion of occupational safety and health. He tells a terrific story.'--Dava Sobel, author of Longitude and Galileo's Daughter

'In Doubt Is Their Product, David Michaels calls out the corporations you'll recognize them that bankroll lobbyists and unethical scientists to attack factual evidence that their products, such as asbestos, lead, and tobacco, are deadly.'--Vanity Fair, Green Issue, May 2008

'David Michaels has written a powerful, thorough indictment of the way big business has ignored, suppressed or distorted vital scientific evidence to the detriment of the public's health.'--Nature From Newsweek, 5/12/08

That science can be bought is hardly news to anyone who knows about tobacco 'scientists.' But how pervasive, effective and stealthy this science-for-hire is-as masterfully documented by David Michaels of George Washington University in his new book, 'Doubt Is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health'-will shock anyone who still believes that 'science' and 'integrity' are soulmates. In studies of how toxic chemicals affect human health, Michaels told me, 'It's quite easy to take a positive result [showing harmful effects] and turn it falsely negative. This epidemiological alchemy is used widely.' -Sharon Begley From Nature, 6/12/08

David Michaels has written a powerful, thorough indictment of the way big business has ignored, suppressed or distorted vital scientific evidence to the detriment of the public's health. Doubt Is Their Product catalogues numerous corporate misdemeanours, especially in the United States, from the criminal neglect of the dangerous nature of asbestos and the lies told by the tobacco industry, to the suppression of adverse findings of deaths caused by the anti-inflammatory drug Vioxx and the increased risk of suicide among teenagers taking selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors for depression. The book concludes with a list of prescriptions for securing better regulation and greater protection for the public, mainly through increased public disclosure of vested interests. -Dick Taverne

'The book is a shocking portrayal of the tactics used by corporate America to delay public health and environmental regulation of their products for the sake of profit...It is a must read for anyone interested in public health and environmental protection.'--Chemical & Engineering News '

...Doubt Is Their Product reminds one of deeper risks that threaten scientific fields and democratic deliberation. ...The scientific community and the public need to be on guard against such abuses; Michaels's history of these events sounds an alert that must not be ignored.'--Durrants One of Library Journal's top 10 sci-tech books of 2008! Received an Honorable Mention in the Society for Environmental Journalism's 2009 Awards for Reporting on the Environment for the category Rachel Carson Environment Book Award.

 'Doubt is our product,' a cigarette executive once observed, 'since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy.' In this eye-opening expose, David Michaels reveals how the tobacco industry's duplicitous tactics spawned a multimillion dollar industry that is dismantling public health safeguards. Product defense consultants, he argues, have increasingly skewed the scientific literature, manufactured and magnified scientific uncertainty, and influenced policy decisions to the advantage of polluters and the manufacturers of dangerous products. To keep the public confused about the hazards posed by global warming, second-hand smoke, asbestos, lead, plastics, and many other toxic materials, industry executives have hired unscrupulous scientists and lobbyists to dispute scientific evidence about health risks. In doing so, they have not only delayed action on specific hazards, but they have constructed barriers to make it harder for lawmakers, government agencies, and courts to respond to future threats. The Orwellian strategy of dismissing research conducted by the scientific community as 'junk science' and elevating science conducted by product defense specialists to 'sound science' status also creates confusion about the very nature of scientific inquiry and undermines the public's confidence in science's ability to address public health and environmental concerns Such reckless practices have long existed, but Michaels argues that the Bush administration deepened the dysfunction by virtually handing over regulatory agencies to the very corporate powers whose products and behavior they are charged with overseeing. In Doubt Is Their Product Michaels proves, beyond a doubt, that our regulatory system has been broken. He offers concrete, workable suggestions for how it can be restored by taking the politics out of science and ensuring that concern for public safety, rather than private profits, guides our regulatory policy."

Consequência:

On environment, Obama and scientists take hit in poll - washingtonpost.com: "There's also rising public doubt and growing political polarization about what scientists have to say on the environment, and a widespread perception that there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether global warming is happening."

No entretanto:

Further reading of stolen emails reveals scientists searching for the truth « Climate Progress: "I have spent the last week reading far more emails belonging to other people than I ever would have liked. While a number of the emails have been flogged around the blogosphere and captured much of the attention, I found that a lot of emails worth seeing have gotten no attention at all. Including some that show that the denialista’s claims of a grand conspiracy is more of a grand hallucination. Because the stolen emails contain plenty of discussions that reveal just how hard the scientists work to make sure they are getting the information right. That’s Pete Altman, NRDC’s Climate Campaign Director, writing last week on the Switchboard blog on the stolen emails you haven’t heard about."

E continua ... veja, descubra, o que isto tem a ver com o aquecimento global

Open Left:: How little Palin supporters know. Not a surprise, but a reminder. And....

O que muita gente esquece, ou não sabe

The Known Universe (Video) | Universe Today

E continua ... mais da "crença" no aquecimento global

NASA Unveils Amazing GHG Models | ecogeek.org "NASA's Aqua spacecraft has been taking daily CO2 measurements with its Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument (AIRS) for the past seven years and now all that information gathering has led to beautiful and frightening maps and models of the concentration and movement of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. [...]

The data reveals major findings like a belt-like ring of CO2 in the southern hemisphere where it acts as a sink for CO2 from the northern hemisphere. Also, the data shows the strong correlation between a rise in CO2 and a rise in water vapor, leading to "exacerbated" warming.

You can check out all of the amazing models, including global CO2, water vapor and methane movements here."

E continua ... esclarecimento para a ausência: é uma mais deprimente do que a outra

Estou deprimido: a política nacional está deprimente; as opiniões (de alguns) sobre o aquecimento global são deprimentes. Consequência: tenho cerca de 100 notas guardadas e não publicadas.

A que se segue -  mais um exemplo acabado da evidência científica sobre o aquecimento global - lia-a há bocado; estive tentado em publicá-la como um adicional a um comentário irónico-pedagógico que fiz por dever de cidadania a um apontamento sobre a "crença" no aquecimento global, saída num blogue regional, no :ilhas, mas não estive para isso - que se dane: não há mesmo pachorra.

Earth's Upper Atmosphere is Cooling | Universe Today: "New measurements from a NASA satellite show a dramatic cooling in the upper atmosphere that correlates with the declining activity of the current solar cycle. For the first time, researchers can show a timely link between the Sun and the climate of Earth's thermosphere, the region above 100 km, an essential step in making accurate predictions of climate change in the high atmosphere. This finding also correlates with a fundamental prediction of climate change theory that says the upper atmosphere will cool in response to increasing carbon dioxide.[...]"

Deviam (como sempre) ler a notícia na totalidade.

E continua ... opiniões em português

ambio: Incerteza e política | Miguel B. Araújo: "A questão de fundo, de um ponto de vista político, é como gerir o risco associado às alterações climáticas mesmo aceitando que existem incertezas sobre as projecções oferecidas pelo IPCC. Se traduzirmos a incerteza em probabilidade e assumindo, por hipótese, que os cépticos estão correctos, estariamos perante um cenário de elevado impacte mas baixa probabilidade. Assumindo que damos igual crédito a cada um dos lados, teriamos elevado impacte e probabilidade intermedia. Na prática, a balança da evidência favorece claramente as projecções (e observações) disponíveis pelo que estamos perante um cenário de elevado impacte e alta probabilidade."

Este blogue é português e, pelo que tenho lido, bem informado sobre o debate das alterações climáticas. A nota que se referencia demonstra-o - é reproduzido também um artigo do The Economist.

Um reparo: é certo que existem incertezas quanto às projeccções do IPCC, mas até agora o que tem vindo a verificar-se é que foram demasiado optimistas o que obrigou a sua actualização para Copenhaga.

E continua ... a opinião dos ursos

More polar bear gallows humor « Climate Progress 

Clicar na figura para ampliá-la