"Este é um problema de sobrevivência, não um problema da agricultura"

Comment of the Day: Graydon: : 

"Care to specify one of those problems?... ...They were hard in 1980. So far as I know, they're all solved, and usually solved multiple ways. (Eg., ammonia synthesis and flow batteries for storing renewable energy.)

Also, we cannot keep burning coal and natural gas. We're already somewhere around 50/50 on breaking agriculture. Break agriculture and that's it. Earth reverts to conditions where the maximum human population is around 500 million and probably not that. (Pre-industrial peak was about a billion. We've damaged a lot of soil.)

This is a survival problem, not an agricultural problem.

J. Bradford DeLong on March 07, 2016 at 04:33 AM in Streams: Comment of the Day | Permalink

Este é o melhor argumento que vi desenvolvido em favor da Uber: vejam o vídeo.

Só tive uma vez a oportunidade de usar a Uber e gostei da experiência. Tive ao longo da vida experiências muito desagradáveis com taxistas, nomeadamente, nas Chegadas do Aeroporto de Lisboa (tenho casa em Moscavide), e isso é algo a contar para a minha apreciação dos méritos relativos da questão. Este vídeo, no entanto, poderá mesmo ser o melhor e o final argumento para a minha aceitação da bondade da solução. 

No entretanto, chamo a atenção para o exemplo dado de como a regulamentação (a má regulamentação) dum pré-Uber, por volta de 1915, deu cabo de algo de algo prometedor, e como isso foi o resultado, tomem nota (é mais um exemplo de algo muito importante, mas negligenciado pela esquerda), de uma coligação de interesses, como a indústria de trolleys, os construtores de carros (e, potencialmente, dos produtores de gasolina).

A finalizar: apesar de tudo gostaria de alguma imposição fiscal e de alguma regulamentação adequada e não castradora.

Uber's plan to get more people into fewer cars

Pico de petróleo

Ontem, no programa do Medina Carreira na TV24, um especialista declarava que a tese do pico de petróleo tinha sido infirmada pelos factos. Existem outros que discordam e que rebatem todos os pontos referidos naquele programa (é necessário ler a nota na totalidade):

Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed: Stop wrangling over global warming and instead reduce fossil-fuel use for the sake of the global economy.

That’s the message from two scientists, one from the University of Washington and one from the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, who say in the current issue of the journal Nature (Jan. 26) that the economic pain of a flattening oil supply will trump the environment as a reason to curb the use of fossil fuels.

“Given our fossil-fuel dependent economies, this is more urgent and has a shorter time frame than global climate change,” says James W. Murray, UW professor of oceanography, who wrote the Nature commentary with David King, director of Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.

The “tipping point” for oil supply appears to have occurred around 2005, says Murray, who compared world crude oil production with world prices going back to 1998. Before 2005, supply of regular crude oil was elastic and increased in response to price increases. Since then, production appears to have hit a wall at 75 million barrels per day in spite of price increases of 15 percent each year.

No entretanto, se tivesse sido diferente...

Ler a nota referenciada na totalidade:

Energy: That's oil she wrote | The Economist

I'VE been meaning to draw attention to this analysis from Stuart Staniford (brought to my attention by Kevin Drum). In it, Mr Staniford asks what the world might have looked like had oil demand continued to grow from 2009 on at its 2000-2008 rate of increase:

In the counterfactual world, 2009 gross world product would have been 6.4 percent larger than in the actual world. We can estimate the implications for oil supply because we know that the global income elasticity of oil demand is about 2/3. Thus the counterfactual world would have required an additional 4.5 percent more oil than the real world.

…2009 oil production was around 85 [million barrels per day] (depending on what source you like) so in the counterfactual world we would have needed it to be around 88-89mbd. Now, in 2008, oil production got up to around 86mbd (on an average basis) but doing so triggered (or required) an oil shock in which prices briefly reached $135/barrel on a monthly basis and almost $150 on a daily basis. What would the likely price path have been had the world then needed an additional 2-3mbd the following year?

To give an indication of the scale of 2-3mbd, note that the loss of 1.6mbd of oil this year (Libya) triggered something like a $30 increase in the price of oil (before it became clear that the global economy was slowing again causing prices to fall). That, along with other commodity price increases, was enough to cause a little bump in inflation that significantly reduced the Federal Reserve's latitude for action. [....]

A diferença é que uns ainda fazem estudos, mesmo que não tenham planos de contingência; outros, nem sabem que pode haver um problema cuja "remota", mas séria possibilidade, exigiria estudo...

Peak oil: 'Nothing to worry about' – but Labour knew the real facts | George Monbiot | Environment | guardian.co.uk: 

"In public, the last government shrugged off the prospect of peak oil. In private, we know now that it had a different view. A powerpoint presentation released at last by the Department of Energy and Climate Change, in response to freedom of information (FoI) requests by the indefatigable Lionel Badal, shows that in 2007 the Labour government spent six months secretly gaming the likely impacts of declining global oil supplies. The results were not pretty.

The officials who conducted the assessment found that 'it is not possible to predict with any accuracy exactly when or why oil production will peak'. They believed that 'a permanent decline in global oil production [ie, peak oil] is unlikely to take place before 2020. However, if it were to happen, the consequences for economic prosperity and security are likely to be serious'. Among these consequences were:

• Impacts on UK security of oil supply

• Disruption of the UK economy especially the transport sector

• Possible geopolitical implications.

If peak oil hit the UK economy, the officials found, it could take 'several years or even decades' for the government and the economy to adjust."

Obviamente, para continuar a ler... 

Outros sarilhos a médio prazo ....

A  resposta à pergunta transcrita abaixo é pedagógica:

The Oil Drum | Will the decline in world oil supply be fast or slow? An Oil Drum reader wrote, asking the following question:

Dear Oil Drum Editors,
I have been reading quite a bit about peak oil recently. I get the impression (not based on data) that at some point there will be a quite steep decline in oil production/supply, and therefore we will see dramatic changes in how the world runs. However, when I look at oil depletion rates and oil production declines based on the Hubbert Curve, it seems to suggest a rather smooth decline. How is that some people expect a serious energy crunch in about two or three years, then? Many thanks! --Curious Reader

             [continuar a ler ....]

Convém não esquecer ....

Abaixo o sumário do que o FMI diz sobre as tendências da evolução do mercado do petróleo ( ver em trends in the market for oil) e potenciais consequências sobre o crescimento mundial:

Energy prices: Oil and trouble | The Economist: The persistent increase in oil prices over the past decade suggests that global oil markets have entered a period of increased scarcity. Given the expected rapid growth in oil demand in emerging market economies and a downshift in the trend growth of oil supply, a return to abundance is unlikely in the near term. This chapter suggests that gradual and moderate increases in oil scarcity may not present a major constraint on global growth in the medium to long term, although the wealth transfer from oil importers to exporters would increase capital flows and widen current account imbalances. Adverse effects could be much larger, depending on the extent and evolution of oil scarcity and the ability of the world economy to cope with increased scarcity. Sudden surges in oil prices could trigger large global output losses, redistribution, and sectoral shifts. There are two broad areas for policy action. First, given the potential for unexpected increases in the scarcity of oil and other resources, policymakers should review whether the current policy frameworks facilitate adjustment to unexpected changes in oil scarcity. Second, consideration should be given to policies aimed at lowering the risk of oil scarcity.

Obviamente, isto deve ser uma preocupação maior da governação dos Açores.

Não sei o que dizer ....

Japan may have lost race to save nuclear reactor « Climate Progress:

"The radioactive core in a reactor at the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant appears to have melted through the bottom of its containment vessel and on to a concrete floor, experts say, raising fears of a major release of radiation at the site."

The UK’s Guardian reports the grim news in its breaking story whose blunt headline I used above.

– Enviado através da Barra de ferramentas do Google"

Ainda o nuclear

Is Nuclear Power Worth the Risk? - NYTimes.com: 

"Nuclear power is hardly the pristine, economical, unambiguous answer to the nation’s energy needs and global warming concerns. It offers benefits and big-time shortcomings. Ultimately, the price may be much too high.

- Sent using Google Toolbar"

A leitura é obrigatória - é uma excelente síntese do que está em jogo.

Energias renováveis, Portugal, nuclear, Japão ....

Desde há algum tempo a estratégia energética seguida pelos governos Sócrates tem sido sujeita a críticas incidindo sobre o seu custo relativo face a outras alternativas - a necessidade de subsidiação do arranque das renováveis traduz-se no encarecimento da energia quer para as famílias, quer para as empresas; a ênfase nas renováveis, particularmente, da energia eólica, pelas características da produção desta, leva a resultados ineficientes do ponto de vista económico e tecnológico, etc., etc. Muitas destas críticas são articuladas por quem considera a opção nuclear como algo, no mínimo, a exigir discussão em Portugal, na perspetiva da construção de uma, ou duas centrais nucleares, no nosso país. Eu fui acumulando informação sobre a polémica, mas nunca a estudei, e logo não estou em condições de emitir um juízo sobre ela - podem ler o que diz o blogue A ciência é neutra a esse respeito.

O meu partis pris nessa questão foi sempre o de que se deve apostar em primeiro lugar, e de modo enfático, na eficiência energética; em segundo lugar, nas renováveis, com respeito, sempre, pelas restrições económicas e financeiras aplicáveis em cada caso. Entendia e entendo, por um lado, que o necessário encarecimento do preço de energia decorrente da aposta nas renováveis se poderia justificar como prémio de seguro contra os riscos (desde sempre previsíveis e inevitáveis) do aumento do preço do petróleo e da extrema dependência do País do fornecimento dos combustíveis fósseis; por outro, entendia que esse sobre-custo seria um custo admissível pelo fato do  País ser um dos primeiros a encetar, de modo tão extensivo, uma estratégia desse tipo. Como pano de fundo haveria ainda tudo aquilo que diz respeito à emissão de gases de estufa. No entanto, encarei aquela polémica como podendo carrear elementos sérios para qualificar a tempestividade da aposta, quer a dimensão efetiva dos custos  - uma estratégia adequada pode transformar-se num desastre se for mal operacionalizada, e acontece estarmos em Portugal. O tempo dirá do mérito da aposta de Sócrates, e espero que o considere significativo.

"Se non è vero, è ben trovato."

Cartoon: What Does Libya Give Us? « Climate Progress:

"- Sent using Google Toolbar"

Charles Koch: sabem quem é? Não?

Pois deveriam sabê-lo!

The most Orwellian op-ed of the year « Climate Progress: 

Second, here’s a joke that’s circulating:

A public union employee, a Tea Party activist and Charles Koch are sitting at a table with a plate of a dozen cookies in the middle. Koch takes 11 of the cookies, turns to the Tea Partier and says, “watch out for that union guy he wants a piece of your cookie.”

"- Sent using Google Toolbar"

Big Oil gains from higher prices while families pay the price « Climate Progress

Big Oil gains from higher prices while families pay the price « Climate Progress:

Political instability in the Middle East over the past month has driven parallel unrest in world oil prices. The drive for political freedom in the Middle East has rightfully captured the world’s attention but it has also roiled oil markets. Governments across the globe are worried that sustained unrest will escalate oil prices past $100 per barrel on their way to $120 or more, choking the struggling economic recovery in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. One entity, however, is almost certain to benefit from this volatility: Big Oil companies.

"- Sent using Google Toolbar"

Clicar na imagem para obter melhor resolução.

Mas há outras notícias do futuro

Não tenho dúvidas quanto à capacidade de encontrarmos soluções tecnológicas que possibilitem uma resposta adequada às consequências da inevitabilidade (já está adquirida, penso eu) das alterações climáticas - as notícias referidas abaixo (a confirmarem-se) poderão ser um exemplo disso. A dúvida está em saber se o quadro político-institucional, ideológico e dos interesses, em países estratégicos para concretizar aquela resposta, como é o caso dos EUA, o vai permitir através da procura dessas soluções e da potenciação das, no entretanto, já descobertas.

Google-backed startup zaps electricity waste - Environment - The Independent:

A Google-backed startup on Wednesday came out of "stealth mode" with a way to dramatically cut the amount of electricity wasted by data centers, solar panels, hybrid cars and more. Transphorm has made a module that can cut by as much as 90 percent the amount of electricity lost while converting currents in anything from laptops to elevator motors and massive computer server farms. Figures cited by the startup indicated that inefficient electric power conversion in the US power grid wastes the equivalent of the output of 318 coal-fired power plants and costs the nation's economy $40 billion a year.

"- Sent using Google Toolbar"

Climate change no problem, says futurist Ray Kurzweil | Environment | guardian.co.uk:

Author, inventor, and futurist Ray Kurzweil [....] 's prognostications are derived from his law of accelerating returns -- the idea that information technologies progress exponentially, in part because each iteration is used to help build the next, better, faster, cheaper one. [....]

Kurzweil also believes this theory can be applied to solar energy. As part of a panel convened by the National Association of Engineers, Kurzweil, together with Google cofounder Larry Page, concluded that solar energy technology is improving at such a rate that it will soonbe able to compete with fossil fuels.

"- Sent using Google Toolbar"

Guerra civil

war of position | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opinion: 

"- Sent using Google Toolbar"

PS: Oil prices: The markets watch the revolution, cont. he Economist: Conditions have deteriorated in Libya, where open civil war appears to have broken out. Some of Libya's oil production has been disrupted, and prices continue to rise around the world. How serious are matters? .... The interesting thing about recent market moves is that they're pricing in the possibility that instability speads. And it well might. But for now, all eyes are on Libya, where the primary danger is not to the global economy but to those caught in the conflict.

Sustentabilidade

Oil prices: Dwindling reserves | The Economist: 

"The U.S. fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show. The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels-- nearly 40%.

....the world doesn't need to experience declines in potential oil production to see a rise in oil prices. All it needs is for oil producers to see that such limits loom and begin betting on the near-certainty of rising prices. Of course, different countries will face different liquidity constraints; some leaders may find themselves producing full out in order to sustain their socialist paradise, particularly when prices temporarily dip thanks to recession. But at those times, other countries with fiscal room to spare should cut back their production further—to buy more, essentially, when prices are low in order to sell more when prices are high.

- Sent using Google Toolbar"

Pois, é uma leitura, excessivamente, interessante...

Life After Growth| post carbon institute: "In late 2009 and early 2010, the economy showed some signs of renewed vigor. Understandably, everyone wants it to get 'back to normal.' But here's a disturbing thought: What if that is not possible? What if the goalposts have been moved, the rules rewritten, the game changed? What if the decades-long era of economic growth based on ever-increasing rates of resource extraction, manufacturing, and consumption is over, finished, and done? What if the economic conditions that all of us grew up expecting to continue practically forever were merely a blip on history's timeline?"

Para ler, reflectir, e ter como elemento incontornável de qualquer cenário!

 

Notícias (potencialmente) boas, mas que outros qualificam

Seria muito bom uma corrida (estilo do que se passou entre a URSS e os EUA, no espaço, nos anos 60) entre os EUA e a China no domínio das renováveis e da eficiência energética:

• Smart Grid Arms Race? U.S., China Face Very Different Challenges | SolveClimate.com: "Talking about a green revolution as a competition between China and the U.S. is like putting two teams on the same field that play different games. Yet, this has been the popular spin on news that China’s spending on smart grid technology will exceed that of the U.S. by $200 million. It has also been the spin on high-speed rail and the so-called 'clean tech arms race.'"

As notícias (potencialmente) boas...:

• Sustentabilidade é Acção: Bill Gates e a energia nuclear "limpa": "Bill Gates esteve no mês passado a dar uma conferência no grupo TED sobre uma nova forma de energia nuclear.[...]" Acedam a este blogue e vejam o vídeo que vale a pena.  

•  Op-Ed Columnist - Dreaming the Possible Dream -Tom Friedman NYTimes.com

... e as qualificações feitas por outros (respectivamente):

• Bill Gates is wrong about “energy miracles” « Climate Progress»

• Dear Vinod Khosla & Tom Friedman: No amount of sequestration will make coal “clean” | Grist: "No, no, a thousand times no. Even if a coal-fired power plant sequestered 100 percent of its carbon pollution, it would not be 'clean.' Even if, as Khosla says, it sequestered all its carbon pollution and helped abate carbon pollution from other sources, it still wouldn't be 'clean.'"

Energia, alimentação, enfim, picos...

Agricultura, e população, nas próximas décadas:

• The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand | Is There Enough Food Out There For Nine Billion People ?: "A threefold challenge now faces the world: Match the rapidly changing demand for food from a larger and more affluent population to its supply; do so in ways that are environmentally and socially sustainable; and ensure that the world’s poorest people are no longer hungry. This challenge requires changes in the way food is produced, stored, processed, distributed, and accessed that are as radical as those that occurred during the 18th- and 19th-century Industrial and Agricultural Revolutions and the 20th-century Green Revolution. Increases in production will have an important part to play, but they will be constrained as never before by the finite resources provided by Earth’s lands, oceans, and atmosphere. ... Recent studies suggest that the world will need 70 to 100% more food by 2050. In this article, major strategies for contributing to the challenge of feeding 9 billion people, including the most disadvantaged, are explored. Particular emphasis is given to sustainability, as well as to the combined role of the natural and social sciences in analyzing and addressing the challenge." 

Curioso, o nível de preocupação de alguns:

• Possibilities in Solar Energy - Scitizen: "Scientists say that fundamental advances that are more likely to come from government research are what is needed to fix the carbon emission problem. Yet the electric utility industry spends less as a percentage of revenue on research and development than does the dog food industry.

Boa notícia?

• Launch of the Bloom box fuel cell generates a slice of Apple hype | Environment | guardian.co.uk

Bem, o José Rodrigues dos Santos, não sei em que livro, já o disse:

• The Oil Drum | Further Evidence of Saudi Arabia's Oil Production Decline

Desvios no processo da aquisição do conhecimento (importância para a discussão do pico do petróleo, aquecimento global, ...):

• The Oil Drum | Why We Disagree on Peak Oil and Climate Change: Part III - Our Belief Systems:"[...] The previous nine points were tenderizer for the meat of the article to follow. If you've read this far you're either unemployed, retired, a psychologist, a blood relative, my girlfriend or someone on the edge of a paradigm shift. Thank you in any case.[...]"

Mais sobre o pico da energia

• The Oil Drum: Campfire | Bloomington, Indiana Peak Oil Task Force has Lots of Ideas: Alguns já começaram a preparar-se - leitura instrutiva.  

• A foreshadowing ignored - The Globe and Mail: "[...]Will the depletion of a nonrenewable and essential resource like oil cause a cataclysmic shock to our economic system? Will the demise of oil happen rapidly? Will its depletion render obsolete, within a very short time, much of the road infrastructure, the suburban housing, the dispersed shopping malls, the stocks of trucks and cars, as well as all the industries that are dependent upon the long-distance shipment of goods?" No que se segue vem uma boa síntese do modo como os economistas, em geral, tendem a analisar a problemática dos recursos não renováveis.