EUA: e agora?

Bem. E agora? As coisas estão complicadas para o lado do Partido Democrata. É essa a sensação que perpassa a opinião de tutti quanti. As vitórias de Hillary Clinton repuseram-na na corrida; mas o consenso é de não ter possibilidades de chegar a Denver com mais delegados, mesmo que ganhasse todas as primárias até lá. Obama, por seu lado, embora com mais delegados, poderá também não conseguir descolar de Hillary Clinton. Assim, será o Congresso a decidir, através dos superdelegados.

Uma seleccão de opiniões:

• Economist Brad DeLong's Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based Semi-Daily Journal: É uma declaração de apoio: "The Democratic Primaries Are Over. BHO and HRC each took about half the delegates on offer yesterday. Her failure to reduce the delegate gap that had opened up in February means that BHO is sure to go into the convention with a lead in delegates--albeit not a lead so large that the unpledged delegates decide as a block that HRC would make a better candidate in the fall. If they decide to do so, I'm fine with that: their judgment on these issues is likely to be better than mine. But I don't think they will--in part because I suspect that they think America's swing independents are more attracted to him, and for that and other reasons BHO would be the stronger candidate in the fall. And I agree that BHO would be the stronger candidate--and I think we have good reason to judge that he would make a better president as well. So I enthusiastically endorse Barack Obama as the Democratic candidate for president in 2008."

• Comment is free: No end in sight: É um artigo de discussão sobre as facetas da situação, concluído com esta tese curiosa: "There is one way to square this circle - and it is something that until very recently I would have rejected as foolish. It may still be. But perhaps the best way to unite the party and heal a damaging primary battle is a Clinton-Obama presidential ticket, or even an Obama-Clinton ticket. Whoever wins the nomination in Denver in August should openly, graciously and unconditionally offer the vice-presidential nomination to the other. Obviously it is then up to the losing candidate to accept or reject it, but even if he or she did reject it, the fact of the offer would do a great deal to mollify each campaign's supporters. One danger is that a Clinton-Obama ticket could be the worst of both worlds, gluing together the motivating force of Clintonophobia among Republicans and the barely-disguised racist repetition of Barack Hussein Obama. Perhaps. But in fact the worst of all possible worlds is the current reality: the Democratic party's two leading assets battling each other to the death. As Matthew records, 'What shall a man give in exchange for his soul?'"

• Hillary’s Math Problem Print Article Newsweek.com: Discute a matemática dos delegados: "I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries."
  

• Michael Gerson - Obama's First 100 Days - washingtonpost.com: É ficção científica, vertentes política e terror:"And this is not Agent Clinton's only contribution. By raising questions about Obama's foreign policy judgment, she has identified a potent issue -- an issue she cannot fully exploit because of the liberalism of her own party. But John McCain could. As a thought experiment, consider the foreign policy achievements of Obama's first 100 days in office."