30 de abril de 2008
"... this figure on “cumulative fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions by different countries as a percent of global total”. China has a long way to go to catch up to this country — let alone the entire industrialized world — on cumulative emissions (though they are obviously trying as hard as they can)."
- ver em Climate Progress » Blog Archive » ‘Tipping Point’ — A non-technical Hansen piece
29 de abril de 2008
28 de abril de 2008
Mais sobre o comportamento do gelo na Gronelândia. Vejam a figura acima. A figura e a informação vêm na nota Climate Feedback: Losing Greenland. Um excerto:
"...the American Geophysical Union meeting last December, ... session after session presented new data about the extent of summer melt in Greenland. Information from the GRACE satellites shows that the overall mass balance of the ice sheet is dropping steadily, and although surface melt varies quite a bit from summer to summer, two of the last three years have seen record levels of melt.
“2007 was a shocking year,” Scott Luthcke, who works with GRACE at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland, told me later. One record melt season does not spell the end of Greenland, of course, and journalists must always be wary about sounding too alarmist based on short-term records. But overall, the outlook for Greenland is simply not good: Changes in speeds of the island’s outlet glaciers show that, no matter whether they are advancing or retreating, they are far faster at changing their behavior than anyone had thought before."
26 de abril de 2008
"The news from NOAA is that all our dawdling on climate action this decade is having real impact on the atmosphere:
- Concentrations of CO2 jumped 2.4 ppm in 2007, taking us to 385 ppm (preindustrial levels hovered around 280 through 1850).
- Levels of methane (a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2) rose last year for the first time since 1998, perhaps an early indication of thawing permafrost [ver gráfico acima]. "
"“He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind.” A Biblical proverb for our times, it turns out…. The bark beetle is devastating North American trees (see “Climate-Driven Pest Devours N. American Forests“). Global warming has created a perfect climate for these beetles — Milder winters since 1994 have reduced the winter death rate of beetle larvae in Wyoming from 80% per year to under 10%, and hotter, drier summers have made trees weaker, less able to fight off beetles. [Picture shows forests turned red by beetle.]"
"Check out this 4-minute clip of Dr. Rashid Sumaila, head of the Fisheries Economics Research Unit here at the UBC Fisheries Centre (and also one of my committee members), as he discusses overfishing, subsidies, and what we can do about it. The clip is an out-take from the PBS series Strange Days on Planet Earth and Rashid also gave a nice interview for the Strange Days website..."
- ver em Shifting Baselines : Fisheries Economist Rashid Sumaila on Overfishing.
22 de abril de 2008
"This reminded me of the words of a leading energy efficiency scientist, Lee Schipper, who is now a visiting scholar working on transportation sector issues at the University of California-Berkeley. When I talked to him for my story, he said he remembers firsthand how contentious the notion of energy efficiency was in the 1970s, when he began his research. But what disturbs him the most is that he sees the same arguments replayed today—over compact fluorescent light bulbs, over appliance standards, over auto efficiency. "To me, that's the story," he says. "We've been doing these scenarios and potentials for 35 years. The question is why are we still doing it?" Schipper has come to believe that the battle is ideological: "There is a fundamentally deep and disturbing opposition to the notion that things can change," he says."
21 de abril de 2008
Spiral Galaxies in Collision
- ver em Suzanne Vega - Paul Krugman - Op-Ed Columnist - New York Times Blog.
20 de abril de 2008
"A recent Financial Times displayed this staggering map of the globe: Black dots marked each of the countries were food riots have been sparked in outrage against the rising prices of food. Thirty dots in all. A recent CNN report noted that "Riots, instability spread as food prices skyrocket." These surging costs, warns World Bank President Robert Zoellick, "could mean 'seven lost years' in the fight against worldwide poverty."
- Spanish economy In a slump Economist.com:
"... Productivity and competitiveness remain Spain's greatest challenges. These need reforms to the labour market, the education system and Spain's research and development infrastructure that may take years to produce results."
Brazil An economic superpower, and now oil too Economist.com: onde se lê natural endowment, pode-se ler, quando analisando outras situações, rendas, qualquer que seja o seu tipo:
"An oil gusher could also sharpen Brazil's already voracious appetite for the politics of the pork barrel. Lula has done much to make Brazil's democracy more genuine. But he was re-elected in 2006 despite a corruption scandal that would have felled a politician of lesser skills. Since then he has basked in popularity derived from sunny economic times and well-designed social policies. The danger is complacency. Compared with its past, Brazil is indeed doing much better. But before oil euphoria kicks in, Brazil's leaders should ask themselves why so many other countries have made bigger returns from a much smaller natural endowment."
"...Even against a slowing world economy, Italy stands out for its dim prospects. .... Its causes are deep-rooted and structural, so they will take years to remedy. Italy is deemed by international watchdogs to be one of the most heavily regulated of all rich countries. Trade unions and special interests have repeatedly fought off attempts at reform. Infrastructure is crumbling, the investment climate is unwelcoming, inflation is troubling and productivity growth has been low (indeed, it has recently been negative). The education and health-care systems are deteriorating. Public administration is inefficient ...."
"His mess of white hair rising with the wind, Nobel laureate Harold Kroto delivered what has become his standard speech on evolution: Humans and fruit flies share the same genes. "You may not like that but it's not my fault," Kroto, 68, said in front of the state Capitol on Monday. "It's the way it actually is."
For months, he has been writing newspaper articles explaining the basic tenets of Darwin's theory, hoping to change minds. He sits on round-table discussions and hands out booklets on evolution from the National Academy of Sciences. He races to the Capitol between lectures to give the fruit fly talk. To Kroto, and mainstream scientists like him, the idea that humans evolved from the world's earliest life forms is as obvious as the laws of gravity. "The bedrock of all biology," Kroto calls it. "It's beautiful."
But Florida lawmakers and a national movement of mostly religious-based groups believe evolution is less absolute. State proposals this year would undo a recent decision by the state Board of Education and allow teachers to "present scientific information relevant to the full range of views on biological and chemical evolution." Kroto and other scientists surmise such legislation would allow teachers to present as credible theories of creationism and intelligent design, basically beliefs that God or a higher being created humans.
Proponents say it allows teachers "academic freedom" to explore a theory, and that laws clearly ban the teaching of religious theories. The proposals would also protect from punishment students who refuse to accept Darwin's evolution. The bill's Senate sponsor, Ronda Storms, R-Valrico, says teachers and students feel too frightened to even discuss intelligent design. Senate Majority Leader Dan Webster, R-Winter Garden, said the theory of evolution "had flaws." Republicans have voted for the plan to the point where it will be considered by the full Senate, and has only one more committee to pass in the House..."
"Meat production, particularly beef, is responsible for a large proportion of the world's greenhouse gas emissions due to the energy required to grow animal feed, the clearing of land for feed crops, N2O emissions from fertilizer application and both N2O and CH4 emissions from the animals themselves.
The graph at right shows the consistent rise in per capita consumption in the Americas and Asia over the past 45 years. Meat production and consumption is expected to continue to rise due to rising demand in China and other parts of Asia.The demand for animal feed, coupled the demand for biofuels, is being felt most of all in the Amazon, the one large area of "unused" and potentially productive farmland left on the planet.
The rate of Amazonian deforestation increased in the last few months, and may increase further in the rainy months to come, when most illegal cutting usually occurs."
- ver maribo: Greenhouse gases, meat consumption and the Amazon; ver também aqui.
Tenho aqui um conjunto de artigos sobre a crise alimentar a nível mundial. O problema tem causas próximas (uma é retratada no gráfico acima - ver em Econbrowser: Food prices ) e outras, que o não são tanto, já que se prendem com o enquadramento político, e a evolução económica tecnológica, do sector agrícola nos últimos 15 a 20 anos. Uma questão que se coloca é a rapidez com que esta crise será resolvida e o que terá de ser tido em linha de conta na transformação da actividade nos próximos anos - e.g., subsidiação da agricultura, comércio internacional de produtos alimentares, produtos agrícolas geneticamente modificados... Isto tudo servindo de alerta à necessidade de se estar atento às consequências das alterações climáticas na actividade agrícola - por exemplo, uma das modificações previstas como decorrendo daquelas será o aumento, em quantidade e em intensidade, dos surtos de seca...
- Econbrowser: Food prices: Comentário à política de subsidiação da produção de etanol a partir do milho: "As a result of ethanol subsidies and mandates, the dollar value of what we ourselves throw away in order to produce fuel in this fashion could be 50% greater than the value of the fuel itself. In other words, we could have more food for the Haitians, more fuel for us, and still have something left over for your other favorite cause, if we were simply to use our existing resources more wisely. We have adopted this policy not because we want to drive our cars, but because our elected officials perceive a greater reward from generating a windfall for American farmers. But the food price increases are now biting ordinary Americans as well."
Geoorge Monbiot: Credit crunch? The real crisis is global hunger. And if you care, eat less meat Comment is free The Guardian:
"Never mind the economic crisis. Focus for a moment on a more urgent threat: the great food recession that is sweeping the world faster than the credit crunch. You have probably seen the figures by now: the price of rice has risen by three-quarters over the past year, that of wheat by 130%. There are food crises in 37 countries. One hundred million people, according to the World Bank, could be pushed into deeper poverty by the high prices. But I bet that you have missed the most telling statistic. At 2.1bn tonnes, the global grain harvest broke all records last year - it beat the previous year's by almost 5%. The crisis, in other words, has begun before world food supplies are hit by climate change. If hunger can strike now, what will happen if harvests decline? There is plenty of food. It is just not reaching human stomachs. Of the 2.13bn tonnes likely to be consumed this year, only 1.01bn, according to the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organisation, will feed people."
- FT.com / Comment & analysis / FT Columnists - A modest proposal for preventing world famine: "...Manila has not been able to buy enough rice abroad to secure food for its people, because no one has wanted to sell. ...The price of rice has more than doubled in a year. ... Riots over food prices have erupted across Africa .... It is tempting to assume that the problem is purely one of supply and can be fixed by genetically modified plants or investment in a new “green revolution” to boost crop yields. The three most productive solutions, however, are all matters of policy. First, there is an urgent need for a sustained liberalisation of agricultural trade. The immediate cause of this crisis is not – perhaps surprisingly – a shortage of food. The problem is the sudden reluctance of traditional exporters to sell their surpluses. ... Trust in the efficiency and liquidity of the market has collapsed. Farm protectionism is not new and international markets are grotesquely distorted by tariffs and subsidies. The main producers – particularly the European Union and the US – have jealously protected their farm sectors from foreign competition, partly on food security grounds. International farm trade has nevertheless managed satisfactorily for decades to redistribute surpluses of staple foods. The current seizures in the markets are therefore a cause for general alarm. ... The second level at which policies need to change is national. Like international trade, domestic trade in farm produce is often highly distorted. While developed nations tend to support their farmers at the expense of consumers, developing countries typically subsidise city-dwellers at the expense of rural smallholders, who receive low prices and have no incentive to increase their output. Third and last, governments need to examine their population policies and limit population growth. Although there is enough grain to go round at the moment, you do not need to be a neo-Malthusian to worry about the demand implications of a global population rising by about 80m people a year or to notice that countries with fast-growing populations... are especially vulnerable to disruptions in the world’s food trade. Perhaps we should not worry too much that global rice stocks are expected to fall this year to the lowest level in 25 years. Some of the changes recommended above for international and domestic food trade regimes could reverse the decline, probably within a few years. A more disturbing thought is that we may in the longer term be approaching the limits of our ability to exploit the natural resources required for food production – crude oil, cultivable land, soil fertility and available fresh water, to name a few. Strains on one resource, furthermore, quickly lead to additional strains on another. To make fresh water, more cities are burning fuel to desalinate seawater, but that helps push up the price of oil. To make substitutes for crude oil, farmers are being encouraged to switch to biofuel production, but that uses almost as much fuel as it produces and contributes in its turn to shortages of food."
- "The collapse of Australia’s rice production is one of several factors contributing to a doubling of rice prices in the last three months — increases that have led the world’s largest exporters to restrict exports severely, spurred panicked hoarding in Hong Kong and the Philippines, and set off violent protests in countries including Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Haiti, Indonesia, Italy, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, the Philippines, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Yemen."
- Food The silent tsunami Economist.com: "Agriculture is now in limbo. The world of cheap food has gone. With luck and good policy, there will be a new equilibrium. The transition from one to the other is proving more costly and painful than anyone had expected. But the change is desirable, and governments should be seeking to ease the pain of transition, not to stop the process itself."
- "But the food scare of 2008, severe as it is, is only a symptom of a broader problem. The surge in food prices has ended 30 years in which food was cheap, farming was subsidised in rich countries and international food markets were wildly distorted. Eventually, no doubt, farmers will respond to higher prices by growing more and a new equilibrium will be established. If all goes well, food will be affordable again without the subsidies, dumping and distortions of the earlier period. But at the moment, agriculture has been caught in limbo. The era of cheap food is over. The transition to a new equilibrium is proving costlier, more prolonged and much more painful than anyone had expected."
A-propósito ver também Les biocarburants sont-ils coupables ? Telos.
"The HiRISE camera onboard Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter keeps churning out incredible images of Mars. This one is very cool, but it’s not obvious why at a glance:..."
- ver a continuação em Bad Astronomy Blog » More gorgeous HiRISE pictures
19 de abril de 2008
"Svetlana Jevrejeva of the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, UK, says a new, more accurate reconstruction of sea levels over the past 2000 years suggests that the prediction of a an 18-59 centimetre rise by 2100 made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is wildly inaccurate. Meeting at European Geosciences Union conference in Vienna, Austria, this week, researchers including Jevrejeva said in a statement that the pace at which sea levels are rising is accelerating. They predict they will be 0.8-1.5 metres higher by next century."
"I managed to find this wonderful Google Map Hack that allows you to observe sea level increases. Surf around and take a look at Thailand and Amsterdam under 2m of water. Feel free to post links to other extremely flooded areas below. ... Only one thing left to do: sing!"
E apresenta o vídeo que se apresenta acima.
- ver Deep Sea News : 1.5m Sea Level Rise by 2100.
"March 2008 missed the record for the warmest March (2002) by a whopping 0.07°F. March 2008 was the warmest March over land in the record, beating the previous record by nearly 0.3°F. And it was the warmest March over land and sea in the northern hemisphere on record by 0.2°F . "
- ver em Climate Progress » Blog Archive » NOAA: The second warmest March on record, e também aqui.
18 de abril de 2008
17 de abril de 2008
Boeing would not survive if the aircraft it built fell out of the sky. Yet in the financial industry, huge blunders are also almost always made in common. If everybody is in the dance nobody is to blame and, in any case, governments, horrified by the consequences of a collapsing financial system, will come to the rescue...
...Yet I am not that optimistic about regulation either. Regulators are doomed to close the stable doors behind financial institutions that always find new and more exciting ways of losing money. It is, for this reason, crucial that the institutions, and unsecured creditors, feel some pain: the burned child fears the fire; singeing is less effective. Yet the fire must never burn too far, since that might destroy the entire economy. If regulation is to be effective, it must cover all relevant institutions and the entire balance sheet, in all significant countries; it must focus on capital, liquidity and transparency; and, not least, it must make finance less pro-cyclical. Will it ever work perfectly? Certainly not. It is impossible and probably even undesirable to create a crisis-free financial system. Crises will always be with us. But we can surely do far better than we have been doing. In any case, we are doomed to try."
15 de abril de 2008
- A nossa dor de André Macedo: sobre a actuação da Ministra da Saúde - preocupante. De acordo com muita coisa do que é dito. O excerto é o final da coluna:
"Sobra, portanto, só um ponto, que deveria refrear o entusiasmo da ministra: ao dizer o que disse, ficou a impressão de que será mais tolerante com os gastos, menos dura com o desperdício, desde que se tenha “o cidadão em consideração”. Ora, é por ter “o cidadão em consideração” que é fundamental consolidar os métodos de gestão privada e dar espaço aos privados para desenvolverem os seus negócios, desde que fiscalizados por um regulador eficaz. Sem estes dois elementos – boa gestão e concorrência –, o SNS voltará à má vida anterior. Nessa altura, o problema já não será de Ana Jorge. Será do país."
- Grande política de Bruno Maçães: sobre o impacto da revolução bio-tecnológica e como isso obriga o regresso da "grande política":
"A revolução biotecnológica começou ontem. Começa a grande política.Eis o que quero dizer com esta expressão. Durante dois ou três séculos foi muito mais fácil manipular o mundo exterior do que a natureza humana. Também tentámos manipular a segunda, claro, com recurso à propaganda e à educação, à psicanálise ou à cirurgia plástica, mas os resultados foram decepcionantes. A consequência foi a perda de importância da política, que não é senão a tentativa de transformar os homens."
Brechas no consenso de Miguel Castro Coelho. A desigualdade (e o enfraquecimento das redes de segurança social nalguns países, e.g., caso dos EUA) induz reacções que poderão por em causa a globalização e o comércio internacional:"O aumento da disparidade na distribuição de rendimentos nos países desenvolvidos é uma tendência marcante do processo de globalização que não pode continuar a ser ignorada. A integração internacional dos mercados assenta num equilíbrio de consensos políticos que se tem vindo a tornar cada vez mais precário. ......Mais recentemente nuvens muito negras começaram a pairar sobre o papel do sector financeiro nesta história. Primeiro, por aquilo que a actual crise financeira colocou a nu: a capacidade de o sistema gerar rendimentos elevados para os ‘insiders’ enquanto uma espiral de alavancagem artificial perdura, e transferir os custos para a generalidade dos contribuintes quando a realidade bate à porta. Segundo, e como consequência do ponto anterior, pelos sinais cada vez mais fortes de uma desconexão grave entre o valor acrescentado pelo sistema financeiro e a parcela do produto de que se apropria. Terceiro, pela eficácia dos seus ‘insiders’ para evitar a malha fiscal – há alguns meses atrás Nicholas Ferguson (’chairman’ da SVG Capital) mostrou-se indignado por ser tributado a uma taxa efectiva inferior à da sua empregada de limpeza (situação que Paul Krugman, noutro contexto, apelidou de ‘Robin Hood in reverse’). Quarto, pela influência que o sector financeiro tem desempenhado no estímulo à criação de bolhas imobiliárias (e.g. EUA, e agora em Inglaterra) e, por inerência, no estímulo ao endividamento excessivo, à fraca poupança líquida nacional e ao desequilíbrio externo."
importância da forma versus conteúdo. O excerto (conclusão do artigo):
"Israel has achieved some remarkable things during its 60 years. But for the sake of its security and domestic well-being, it now needs a system that makes politicians answerable to voters, not to other politicians. What shape it should take—whether a mixture of proportional representation with electoral districts, higher thresholds to keep small parties out of the parliament, or just rules to make it harder to topple governments—is up to Israelis. Unfortunately, since their politicians will design and vote on it, it is unlikely to be optimal; but almost anything would be better than what there is now."
Será curioso ver, ao longo deste ano, quem terá mais razão - a tese do primeiro não invalida, no entanto, a possibilidade de ocorrer a tempestade prevista pelo segundo, mas o que diz o artigo do FT sobre o Euro prova, a contrário, a qualidade de algumas apreciações feitas sobre os "custos" para a condução da política económica portuguesa decorrentes da nossa pertença à zona Euro. Qualquer dos artigos é instrutivo e merece ser lido - há mais sobre estes assuntos sob as etiquetas conjuntura económica e europa.
- FT.com / Columnists / Wolfgang Munchau - Pessimism about the eurozone is misplaced:
"I am puzzled by the International Monetary Fund’s latest growth projections for the eurozone. The forecasts in the World Economic Outlook show a mild recession for the US, with a positive annual growth rate of 0.5 per cent this year and a huge contraction in growth for the eurozone from 2.6 per cent in 2007 to 1.4 per cent.
This is puzzling to me for two reasons. First, what drives the US downturn is an immense property recession in combination with a credit crunch. That is, by and large, not the case in the eurozone despite a number of regional downturns, for example in Spain. Second, the economic news from the eurozone has been persistently better than expected so far and there may be a dynamism at work that is not yet fully understood.
One possibility is that some of the economic shock transmitters, especially the exchange rate, may work a little slower than they used to. Companies can hedge against short-term exchange rate fluctuation. The euro has also improved its status as an invoicing currency, which may offer eurozone companies some protection. Eventually, of course, the eurozone may run of luck, but it would have to run out of luck fairly soon for the IMF’s forecast of a sharp growth slowdown to prove correct for this year. Now that might still happen, especially if the US were to fall into a black hole. But I just cannot see how the IMF’s pessimism on the eurozone can be consistent with its relative optimism about the US.
Another possibility is that the eurozone economy may have become a touch more resilient. To be clear: I am no advocate of “decoupling”. It is a meaningless metaphor since no region in a globalised economy can be truly decoupled. But even if there can be no decoupling, there remains the perfectly legitimate question whether the relationship between the US economy and the rest of the world in general, and the eurozone in particular, may have changed over the years. I suspect it has. One of the main economic arguments in favour of the euro was a lower cyclical dependence on the US. While that goal has clearly not been reached in full, it may have been reached in part. For example, Germany, which accounts for more than a quarter of the eurozone’s economic output, has coped better with a rising currency than it did in similar episodes of the past. And in one limited respect, we can even talk about “decoupling”: European monetary policy is far more independent of the US today than it used to be. The European Central Bank’s dogged pursuit of price stability continues to surprise even seasoned central bank watchers, who could not have imagined that the ECB would be able to leave interest rates unchanged during a period in which the Federal Reserve has cut by 300 basis points. To see how much has changed over the past 10 years, just imagine what would have happened if there had been no euro. The European financial markets would have remained fragmented. Italy would have devalued its lira a long time ago. Spain would probably have announced a devaluation of the peseta right after the recent elections as the depth of its housing crisis became more and more apparent. Portugal and Greece would have devalued three or four times by now. President Nicholas Sarkozy of France might have been tempted to devalue the franc against the D-Mark shortly after his election. Today, the German, Benelux and Austrian economies would have been crippled by a super-hard D-Mark, guilder and shilling, which would have risen not only against the dollar, but also against the franc, the peseta and the lira. The US downturn would have brought havoc to the European economy – as it used to in the past. You remember that other tired old metaphor about the US sneezing and the Europeans catching a cold.
Maybe we are now living in a world where the US is catching a cold and the Europeans are sneezing. This does not mean that all is well with the eurozone. On the contrary, regular readers of this column will probably recall my almost obsessive pessimism about Germany’s economy and the country’s inability to create a dynamic services and financial sector. But there can be no doubt that Germany is more robust relative to past performance.
This is in my view not an economic reform story, but the result of macroeconomic regime change. The euro created a large and stabilising internal market, almost as large as the US itself. Of course, the eurozone remains relatively more open than the US. It continues to depend on outside influences more than the US. But my point is that the eurozone is much less sensitive today than its constituent economies were 10 or 15 years ago. Economic forecasters should beware that not all past relationships can be safely extrapolated into the future.
Obviously, there may come a point when a US recession and a persistently weak dollar will affect the eurozone as well. There are several channels through which US economic weakness is transmitted to the rest of the world – bank profits, the stock market, falling exports among others. But these channels take time to work through the system. I would broadly concur with the IMF’s 2009 forecast for the eurozone – a growth rate of 1.2 per cent. But for growth to slow down to 1.4 per cent already this year, something dramatic would have to happen that I am not seeing elsewhere in the IMF’s forecasts."
- Charlemagne Danger ahead for the mighty euro Economist.com:
"In truth, as the euro approaches its tenth birthday celebrations, it is facing the biggest test of its short life. If Europe follows America into recession, which is quite possible, the pain will be a lot greater in the Mediterranean countries than in Germany and northern Europe. Not surprisingly, the political response from the two regions will also be quite different. Even as it prepares to expand once more to take in Slovakia and later other countries from eastern Europe, the euro is about to show the world that it is not yet an optimal currency area—and the demonstration may not be a pretty one."
14 de abril de 2008
A acompanhar: Climate Progress » Blog Archive » Breaking News: The Great Ice Age of 2008 is finally over — next stop Venus!: "A top NASA scientist just emailed me the breaking news: “The ice age expired!” Even more shocking — the rate of warming this year has been just about unprecedented in the historical record — even faster than Climate Progress had predicted just last month based on the NASA data from February (see here)."
Como o óbvio há muito de sarcasmo nesta nota - apesar de serem reais (e preocupantes) os factos referidos - e esse tom é a réplica a muito do anda a ser dito, mais recentemente, pelos denegacionistas do aquecimento global: fim do aquecimento global, etc., etc. (ver aqui). Como é óbvio, também, não será o que está a suceder nestes dois últimos meses, em termos de temperatura, só por si, que irá determinar uma inflexão (negativa) da tendência do longo prazo do aquecimento global.