O gráfico, retirado desta nota do Dani Rodrik's weblog: Italian doldrums, ilustra como as diferentes economias nacionais da UEM se diferenciaram no período 1996 e 2006 em relação ao comportamento da taxa de câmbio real versus capacidade relativa de exportação. Insiro-o aqui para futura referência e reflexão - o caso português surge aí também (não é surpresa saber que perdemos competitividade nesse período) e pergunto-me, se no nosso caso, o mecanismo da emigração não está a funcionar, já e em força, para a nossa mão-de-obra pouco qualificada.
Dani Rodrik que considera "...to me the EU is the most impressive achievement of international economic statecraft in the second half of the 20th century. But clearly not everything is hunky-dory..." comenta-o:
"The chart reveals an important reason behind Italy's poor performance: a large real exchange rate appreciation. Compare this for example to Germany, where significant real depreciation (an increase in external competitiveness) has stimulated export growth and has been an important driver of recent growth.
What is surprising about this of course is that it wasn't supposed to be this way. These countries are all in the Eurozone, and they share a common currency. Nonetheless, inflation patterns have diverged. If the Eurozone was a country rather than a loose grouping of countries, workers would be migrating en masse from Italy to Germany. It's not clear that there are similar equilibrating mechanisms within the Eurozone.
(What about Ireland in the picture above, some of you may ask. Ireland has experienced both an appreciation and an export boom. Well, that is what is called an "equilibrium real appreciation": the real exchange rate movement is the result of export performance, not the other way around.)"
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