O ano de 2008 tem sido invocado pelos "denegacionistas" como exemplo da falência da tese do aquecimento global devido a ter sido um ano em que a temperatura esteve abaixo dos valores médios dos últimos anos. Os gráficos e os artigos abaixo contextualizam a questão.
This map shows warm (reds) and cool (blues) deviations from the mean temperature from 1951 to 1980 for the “meteorological year” — December 2007 through November 2008. (Credit: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)
Cooler Year on a Warming Planet - Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com (os gráficos acima foram retirados daqui).
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the World Meteorological Organization, and Britain’s Hadley Center are all issuing recaps of the past year’s temperature patterns today. I’ll update this post as soon as I have the other data sets.
The past year, according to the NASA group (the “meteorological year” from December through November), is between the 7th and 12th warmest (because of the range of uncertainty in readings) since systematic meteorological record-keeping began in 1880. But the Goddard scientists note that the 9 warmest years in the record have occurred since 1998. Some highlights: Over part of the past year, the Pacific was in its cyclical cool phase, called La Niña; the Arctic remained far warmer than usual for recent decades. (Many Arctic specialists say the recent warming is more widespread than an Arctic hot spell in the early 20th century, which was centered near Greenland.)
Climate Progress » Blog Archive » NSIDC: Arctic melt passes the point of no return, “We hate to say we told you so, but we did”
The UK’s Independent reports on a study to be presented Tuesday to the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco by top cryosphere scientists:
Scientists have found the first unequivocal evidence that the Arctic region is warming at a faster rate than the rest of the world at least a decade before it was predicted to happen.
Climate-change researchers have found that air temperatures in the region are higher than would be normally expected during the autumn because the increased melting of the summer Arctic sea ice is accumulating heat in the ocean.
The phenomenon, known as Arctic amplification, was not expected to be seen for at least another 10 or 15 years and the findings will further raise concerns that the Arctic has already passed the climatic tipping-point towards ice-free summers, beyond which it may not recover.
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