17 de julho de 2009

Recentes sobre o aquecimento global (II)


"A 2006 Nature analysis of deep marine sediments beneath the Arctic found Artic temperatures during the PETM almost beyond imagination–above 23°C (74°F)–temperatures more than 18°F warmer than current climate models had predicted (see “A methane feedback from the past strikes again“). The three dozen authors of the 2006 paper concluded that existing climate models are missing crucial feedbacks that can significantly amplify polar warming — as opposed to the imaginary negative feedbacks deniers like Lindzen claim while will magically save humanity from catastrophic warming (see Study: Water-vapor feedback is “strong and positive,” so we face “warming of several degrees Celsius”).

Now a new PETM study is out (click here), which deniers like Swift Boat smearer Marc Morano are touting as evidence climate models don’t accurately model the climate — but which rational climate science activists understand is yet more evidence that most climate models underestimate likely future warming. Here is the Union of Concerned Scientists press release on the study:

Several climate contrarian Web sites are misrepresenting the findings of a peer-reviewed study published in the July 13 issue of the journal Nature Geoscience. The study — by scientists from Rice University, the University of Hawaii and the University of California at Santa Cruz — provides evidence that current climate models are underestimating the amount of warming that an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide can cause. In other words, the potential consequences of global warming are likely worse than what scientists are predicting"

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