" [...] And all of a sudden, it looks as if “a decade of deadening debate over the European Union’s institutional shape” [...] after Ireland’s referendum on the Lisbon treaty produced a massive majority in favour. It may not be long before the EU has its first full-time president, a new head of foreign policy and a new Commission with a five-year mandate serving under Barroso.
[...] The principal problem,[...], is the financial crisis [...] the terrible condition of Europe’s public finances and the strains that this will put on the eurozone’s unity.
[...]The German debt would be 40 per cent of GDP, the Dutch debt 37 per cent, the Finnish debt 12 per cent. But the Greek debt would be 150 per cent, the Irish debt 126 per cent and the Portuguese debt 89 per cent. [...] Barclays Capital’s “base case”, [...] is more pessimistic, estimating average eurozone debt at 90 per cent of GDP in 2016. But the same enormous divergence between, say, Germany and Greece is evident: German debt would be 64 per cent, Greek debt 171 per cent.
With such bleak forecasts, it is entirely understandable that German policymakers dislike proposals for issuing common eurozone bonds. But the financial crisis is testing to the limit the eurozone’s ability to conduct a properly co-ordinated fiscal policy. When interest rates start going up again, as they will, this will present a far bigger challenge for the EU than getting Barroso reappointed or passing the Lisbon treaty."
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário