"I don't know when global oil supplies will start to decline. I do know that another resource has already peaked and gone into free fall: the credibility of the body that's meant to assess them. Last week two whistleblowers from the International Energy Agency alleged that it has deliberately upgraded its estimate of the world's oil supplies in order not to frighten the markets.
Three days later, a paper published by researchers at Uppsala University in Sweden showed that the IEA's forecasts must be wrong, because it assumes a rate of extraction that appears to be impossible. The agency's assessment of the state of global oil supplies is beginning to look as reliable as Alan Greenspan's blandishments about the health of the financial markets.
If the whistleblowers are right, we should be stockpiling ammunition. If we are taken by surprise, if we have failed to replace oil before the supply peaks then crashes, the global economy is stuffed. But nothing the whistle-blowers said has scared me as much as the conversation I had last week with a Pembrokeshire farmer."
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PS (17.11.09): Estes No Peak in Oil Before 2030, Study Says - Green Inc. Blog - NYTimes.com vêm a pôr um bocado de água na fervura, mas a acompanhar...
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PS (17.11.09): Estes No Peak in Oil Before 2030, Study Says - Green Inc. Blog - NYTimes.com vêm a pôr um bocado de água na fervura, mas a acompanhar...
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