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A importância da China no panorama mundial é algo muito consensual neste momento, muito "conventional wisdom", e como tal, como usualmente sucede nesses casos, a efectiva capacidade que terá para formatar o nosso futuro, a real dimensão do fenómeno, no bom e no mau sentido, tende a esbater-se, a não ser ponderada, ou assumida devidamente, mesmo na consciência daqueles que afirmam ser óbvio aquele juízo. A "conventional wisdom" mesmo quando apreendendo, em termos gerais, um fenómeno, se não qualificada por um fluxo constante de informação, adequada, e problematizada, não é mais do que uma outra forma de ignorância (perigosa) - digamos, uma analfabetismo culto, se me é permitido o oximoro.
O conjunto de referências abaixo, acumuladas ao longo de Dezembro e Janeiro, ilustram bem o que digo acima. Surgem no quadro claro da importância da China, mas matizam pormenores, aprofundam áreas de fronteira do fenómeno, geram optimismos e preocupações, e colocam novas questões. As notícias do modo como a China, no terreno, está a encarar a eficiência energética, e as renováveis, é para mim, um motivo de optimismo - em última instância, as coisas a correrem muito mal, prefiro que os meus filhos, ou os meus netos, a viver num mundo "chinês" do que em nenhum; como irá evoluir o crescendo geo-económico e político chinês, ou a possibilidade de ele ser parado, levantam questões; e quando os chineses começam a acumular reservas (stocks) de matérias primas, e de minerais raros, não é caso de começar a perguntar o que eles sabem, que os outros não sabem?
- A Review I Will Treasure Forever: "...far from a knee-slapper and unlikely to be chosen by Ms. Winfrey for her book club..." - Grasping Reality with Opposable Thumbs: "[...] Richard Pachter:: I've long thought that the best advice one can give a youngster seeking success in the business world is to learn Chinese. Our pals in Beijing and Shanghai hold serious paper on us ('Us, U.S.,' as Paul Harvey used to say) and they can wreak terminal havoc upon America, its institutions and infrastructure, if and when they chose. But it's not really in their best interests to ask us to ante up and watch us turn our pockets inside out, show our empty hands and shrug.Why? "
- Roubini Global Economics - RGE Monitor -- Emerging Markets EconoMonitor:
"It is my considered opinion that the West is underestimating China on
a number of different levels.
If we want to talk superpower politics, then China has always been a
superpower albeit one that has been slumbering for 60 years. [...] China is more like
the teacher, simply sitting back with a rye smile and watching the
children fight it out on the playground and doing its own thing for the
long term good of China.
Where am I going with this - a recent post EAFE Pro looked at China's
recent buying of copper and aluminum. I knew such buying was taking
place but was surprised at the sheer scale. So why? China is taking
advantage of the global recession to buy cheap and stockpile. China
knows it will need the metal eventually just to construct the
buildings, machines and cars it knows it will need in the future. " A figura acima foi retirada deste artigo.
- China: Innovation in electric bicycles: "China has gone crazy for electric bicycles -- they are far and away the biggest selling form of transport on the streets, with 120 million of the battery-powered two-wheelers whizzing up and down the thoroughfares."
- China as hegemon | The Economist: " Mark Thoma directs us to Dani Rodrik, which discusses the book 'When China Rules the World', by Martin Jacques. So what will it be like when China rules the world? Americans and Europeans blithely assume that China will become more like them as its economy develops and its population gets richer. This is a mirage, Jacques says. The Chinese and their government are wedded to a different conception of society and polity: community-based rather than individualist, state-centric rather than liberal, authoritarian rather than democratic. [...] The thing about 'western' hegemony over the last century is that North America and Europe had a relative monopoly over developed nation status. China won't be so lucky; at best it will be first among peers. It therefore seems unlikely that China will be an overwhelming net exporter of ideology or culture, no matter how rich its economy grows."
- Op-Ed Columnist - Is China the Next Enron? - NYTimes.com: "I am reluctant to sell China short, not because I think it has no problems or corruption or bubbles, but because I think it has all those problems in spades — and some will blow up along the way (the most dangerous being pollution). But it also has a political class focused on addressing its real problems, as well as a mountain of savings with which to do so (unlike us)."Mais que não seja pelas estatísticas que apresenta, o artigo merece ser lido.
PS (14.01.10): Esqueci-me de colocar esta referência: Book
Review - 'When China Rules the World - The End of the Western World and
the Birth of a New Global Order,' by Martin Jacques - Review -
NYTimes.com [tem a ver com a penúltima referência acima].
PS: E mais este ainda: China’s world centrality| Janela na Web: One key theme of the book is that China manifest great potential to become a new center of growth in the global capitalist system, but it is not guaranteed, as it requires China to solve a lot of intractable problems first. The book was finished before the global crisis. The crisis verified this view of the book: on the one hand the problems China is facing when trying to sustain its growth in the aftermath of the crisis is much bigger than before the crisis; but at the same time, I still hope that the crisis could serve as a wakeup call that in the end will push China to shift its course of development into a more sustainable and equitable one.
PS: E mais este ainda: China’s world centrality| Janela na Web: One key theme of the book is that China manifest great potential to become a new center of growth in the global capitalist system, but it is not guaranteed, as it requires China to solve a lot of intractable problems first. The book was finished before the global crisis. The crisis verified this view of the book: on the one hand the problems China is facing when trying to sustain its growth in the aftermath of the crisis is much bigger than before the crisis; but at the same time, I still hope that the crisis could serve as a wakeup call that in the end will push China to shift its course of development into a more sustainable and equitable one.
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