São alguns artigos e notas sobre o comportamento da economia Portuguesa nos anos anteriores e posteriores à entrada no Euro. É leitura interessante e oportuna, embora exigente, nalguns casos, para não-economistas, ou para economistas destreinados. Reli-os agora, e o meu estado de alma, não melhorou.
- Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal - Olivier Blanchard [November 11, 2006 (First draft, February 2006)) O artigo conclui assim: "I began by arguing that Portugal faced an unusually tough economic challenge: low growth, low productivity growth, high unemployment, large fiscal and current account deficits.I then examined various policy choices, from reforms increasing productivityI then examined various policy choices, from reforms increasing productivity growth, to coordinated decreases in nominal wages, and the use of fiscal policyin this context. I want to end on a more positive note. There is a large scope for productivity increases in Portugal, and a set of reforms which could achieve them. A decrease in nominal wages sounds exotic, but is the same in essence as a successful devaluation. If it can be achieved, it can substantially reduce the unemployment cost of the adjustment. Fiscal policy can also help. While deficits must be reduced, temporary fiscal expansion could be part of an overall package, facilitating the adjustment of wages. The challenge is there. But so are the tools needed to meet it." A dado passo, no corpo do documento diz-se o seguinte: "[...]while deficit reduction is needed, it would be unwise to expect it to lead, by itself, to higher demand and lowerunemployment. For the same reason, it would be unwise to expect deficit reduction to lead to a boom in investment, and through capital accumulation, to a substantial improvement in competitiveness." Pois é, existe vida para além do défice, mas não é aquela que alguns esperam.
- Avoiding the Portuguese Trap, by Christoph B. Rosenberg, IMF Senior Regional Representative for Central Europe and the Baltics (February 20, 2008) To be sure, the risks of a hard landing are real. Some point to the case of Portugal, which also experienced a rapid acceleration of economic convergence after joining the EU. Starting in 2001 this boom gave way to a long period of sub-par growth and high current account deficits that persist until today. The culprit: large wage increases, fueled by unrealistic expectations, which exceeded productivity growth and undermined the country's competitiveness. Comentário português a esta nota: Blog Sedes » AVOIDING THE PORTUGUESE TRAP
- A new level of economic development in Portugal - McKinsey Quarterly - Economic Studies - Country Reports: "On the anniversary of the bloodless revolution that toppled a long-standing dictatorship in April 1974, Portugal looked back on a generation that had transformed it into a modern European economy. But the jubilee also marked another turning point: the need to create a new path toward growth. To drive the economy forward, the country can no longer rely on integration with the rest of the European Union or on the fact that until now wages in Portugal have been among the lowest in the trade bloc. Indeed, the process of catching up with the wealthier EU economies has lately ground to a halt. It is high time Portugal tackled the underlying cause of the wealth gap: its low labor productivity."
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário