Notas III: A conjuntura (europeia)

Incertezas:

Roubini Global Economics - RGE Monitor -- Europe EconoMonitor| March Madness: "[...] If your private sector is retrenching already, and your public sector retrenches on top of that, unless you get a massive swing in foreign trade in your favor, you are inevitably inviting falling private nominal incomes and private debt distress into the picture.[...] "

Roubini Global Economics - RGE Monitor -- Europe EconoMonitor:Hanging in the Balance over at the ECB "[...] So, [...] despite the apparent success of the EU Commission in obtaining agreement on a further €4.8 billion package of austerity measures Greece is still far from receiving the all-clear. Ironically, market concerns will in all probability now shift to worries that Athens has gone too far in slashing budgets and raising taxes, and that the fiscal measures announced will simply act as a massive brake on economic activity. The risk is that Greece is now in a vicious circle in which fiscal austerity sends the country ever deeper into recession - and Athens has to react even more aggressively to bring down the public sector deficit as a share of GDP.[...]"

Opiniões e qualificações:

Greece, the Latest and Greatest Bubble - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com: "By the end of 2011 Greece’s debt will be around 150 percent of its gross domestic product. (The numbers here are based on the 2009 International Monetary Fund Article IV assessment.) About 80 percent of this debt is foreign-owned, and a large part of this is thought held by residents of France and Germany. Every 1 percentage point rise in interest rates means Greece needs to send an additional 1.2 percent of G.D.P. abroad to those bondholders. Imagine if Greek interest rates rise to, say, 10 percent. This would be a modest premium for a country with the highest external public debt/G.D.P. ratio in the world, a country that continues (under the so-called “austerity” program) to refinance even the interest on that debt without actually paying a centime out of its own pocket, at the same time as struggling to establish any backing from the rest of Europe. At such interest rates, Greece would need to send at total of 12 percent of G.D.P. abroad per year, once it rolls over the existing stock of debt to these new rates (nearly half of Greek debt will roll over within three years)."

Países: Alemanha.

European trade: Keeping up with the Germans | The Economist: "Germany is rightly proud of its ability to control costs and keep on exporting. But it also needs to recognise that its success has been won in part at the expense of its European neighbours. Germans like to believe that they made a huge sacrifice in giving up their beloved D-mark ten years ago, but they have in truth benefited more than anyone else from the euro. Almost half of Germany’s exports go to other euro-area countries that can no longer resort to devaluation to counter German competitiveness."

German Exports and that Looming Double Dip | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opinion: "Firstly, the Bundesbank’s forecast for growth of 1.6 percent in 2010 is looking rather optimistic at this point, even though GDP was at a very low level last year, so in theory getting some growth should not be that hard. And secondly, that German recessionary “double dip” that I mentioned back in November does not look so implausible at all at this point. All that is needed is a very slight downward revision to the Q4 2009 data, and Axel Weber’s own prediction for very slight negative growth in this quarter to be confirmed, and there we will be, back in recession. Which would only leave us with the French economy - among the EU majors - showing any sign of a robust recovery."

Países: Grécia.

Walker's World: Running out of ammo: "There are four reasons why the Greek crisis is not over, despite the $7 billion it was able to raise last week in 10-year bonds paying a steep 6.3 percent interest. Three of those reasons bode ill for the global economy. The fourth is that Greece's domestic political crisis will continue for many years, with Saturday's riots and tear gas in Athens just a prologue. Greece will this year cut its public spending by 4 percent, mainly through public sector pay cuts and delayed retirement."

Greece Braces for Long, Deep Recession - Real Time Economics - WSJ: "Greeks are bracing for a long and deep recession ahead as it begins to dawn on them that the cost of fixing the country’s public finances will entail years of economic hardship and high unemployment. In recent public opinion polls, but also in the media, the business community, and even in ordinary dinner conversation, the feeling is that it will take several years for the Greece to emerge from its economic crisis and that there is much pain to come before things improve."

PS: E mais estas:

The Portuguese Economy: Fiscal consolidation at the zero interest lower bound: "if fiscal multipliers are larger when interest rates are close to the zero lower bound, fiscal consolidation should be performed during times when the economy is far from the lower bound. Wait, it becomes worse: at the zero interest rate lower bound, the larger contractionary effect of fiscal policy increases the probability of maintaining the interest rates at zero, making it more difficult to escape from the trap. There are many caveats, the most obvious regard interest rates payments on national debt (the longer we wait the larger are the payments) and credibility. Let me conclude by suggesting that the escape from near-zero interest rate lower bound in a monetary union necessarily involves an increase in aggregate demand in the monetary union. This would suggest to have fiscal consolidation plans contingent with the EMU recovery and monetary policy normalization."

Notas III