Isto está mesmo mau

Isto está mau; não vejo saída alternativa à aplicação dos tratamentos mais dolorosos e, ainda assim, de eficácia duvidosa; e mesmo, no cenário, até agora, pouco provável, que a União Europeia conseguisse começar a fazer as coisas bem feitas, o certo é que estamos no caminho certo, politicamente, para esterilizar  no curto prazo qualquer solução que viesse desse lado.

A primeira referência, abaixo, vem de um blogue do Finantial Times via The Portuguese Economy: The horror scenario que adjetiva o cenário ali equacionado de horroroso. A segunda, é uma descrição excelente do sarilho em que estamos metidos, e o último, é mais um contributo crítico para a discussão do modo como a União deve atuar nesta conjuntura:

• Portugal: finally about the banks. 

• Portugal in Peril - Blogs - IIEA - The Institute of International and European Affairs: "By way of policy responses, the Portuguese government has so far concentrated on deficit reduction and reform of public finances by means of adopting austerity measures, with the government targeting a deficit reduction from 7.3% of GDP in 2010 to 4.6% of GDP in 2011. While this is no bad thing, it misses the crux of Portugal’s problem, which is one of competitiveness. According to S&P (April 2010), the economy’s growth potential is “constrained by weak international competitiveness, low productivity gains, stagnating investment growth, and falling domestic credit as the highly leveraged private sector reduces debt [while] relatively rigid product and labor markets could impede growth prospects in Portugal, prolonging the adjustment in prices and wages we view as necessary to regain external competitiveness”. GDP is forecast to fall in 2011, largely due to a decrease in domestic demand. Marginal growth is expected in 2012, as domestic demand increases and exports remain steady (although still worryingly low compared to other euro area states) and imports fall. 

• On the tasks of the European Stability Mechanism | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists: "In the run up to next week’s meeting of the European Council, confusion remains on how to tackle the Eurozone debt crisis and ensure stability in the currency area. This column argues that it is high time for the European Council to stop ducking the issues and provide a credible framework to tackle the sovereign debt crisis on its doorstep.

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