12 de abril de 2011

Anomalias, Cisnes Negros e Anomalias a cores

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground: "According to the National Climatic Data Center, March 2011 was the driest March and 17th warmest March in Texas since 1895. Temperatures averaged 2 - 6°F above average over most of the state, but over the western portion of the state, where the worst wildfires are burning, temperatures averaged between 6 - 10°F above average."

Is global warming a black swan? « Climate Progress [....] One of the defining characteristics of humans is our ability to ignore or downplay facts that would shatter or overturn our world view. At the same time, we tend to favor or selectively recall information that confirms our preconceptions, which is called “confirmation bias.” I bring that up because, these days, pretty much everything that seems anomalous is called a “Black Swan,” a term popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in writings such as, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.” [....]



Sato2 small
Surface temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980 mean.

Last month I reported on a new paper by NASA’s James Hansen and Makiko Sato (see Hansen: “One sure bet is that this decade will be the warmest” on record). Kate at ClimateSight sighted a new color in the chart, “pink, which is even warmer than dark red.” [....] Surface temperature anomalies for the period 17 December 2010 to 15 January 2011 show impressive warmth across the Canadian Arctic…. The largest anomalies here exceed 21°C (37.8°F) above average, which are very large values to be sustained for an entire month.


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