.... ou melhor, eu tenho medo é de um cenário onde confluam atrasos, falências de política, tensões climáticas e demográficas,..., porque numa situação desse tipo as boas respostas, ou as boas soluções, arriscam-se a não emergir com a facilidade que os cenários de probabilidade mais elevada, equacionados abaixo, sugerem .
[....] Substitution will be easier for some commodities than others, and for some applications relative to others. I think I'm actually mildly optimistic. I don't anticipate falling prices. I do think that as prices bump up against painful levels, innovation and adaption will occur more swiftly than many expect. Another decade of volatile and upward-trending oil prices, for instance, will be incredibly good for electric-car technology. I'd say there's about a 70% chance that 15-20 years from now commodity prices won't be any higher than they are right now. I'd say there's a 20% chance they're dramatically lower because of stunning, expected innovation. And I'd say there's a 10% chance they're dramatically lower because humanity was not able to substitute away from scarce resources effectively, leading to a catastrophic economic collapse.
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