26 de fevereiro de 2008

Fluxos financeiros e globalização

Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian afirmam num artigo no Financial Times que We must curb international flows of capital.

O parágrafo final sintetiza a sua tese:

"It is time for a new model of financial globalisation, one that recognises that more is not necessarily better. As long as the world economy remains politically divided among different sovereign and regulatory authorities, global finance is condemned to suffer deformations far worse than those of domestic finance. Depending on context, the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital flows as to encourage them. Policymakers who view their challenges exclusively from the latter perspective will get it badly wrong."

Os parágrafos anteriores discutiam o mérito dos fluxos de capitais (na dimensão actual):

"But will not such interference with capital flows reduce the benefits of financial globalisation? Even leaving financial crises aside, those benefits are hard to find.

Financial globalisation has not generated increased investment or higher growth in emerging markets. Countries that have grown most rapidly have been those that rely least on capital inflows. Nor has financial globalisation led to better smoothing of consumption or reduced volatility. If you want to make an evidence-based case for financial globalisation today, you are forced to resort to indirect and speculative arguments. "

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