Aquecimento global: o que deve fazer a União Europeia

Javier Solana, no Comment is free (Guardian), em Before the flood, refere que há que dar resposta à necessidade de mitigação, de adaptação, e às ameaças de segurança, colocadas pelas consequências do aquecimento global; enuncia alguns dos perigos colocados por aquele; e propõe linhas de actuação estratégica à União Europeia (conclui dizendo que o debate científico sobre o aquecimento global está encerrado - pois! existe muita gente distraída por este mundo fora):

"Let me highlight just three of the threats posed by climate change:

1. Conflict over resources is one of them, especially where access is politicised. A reduction of arable land, widespread shortage of water, diminishing food and fish stocks, increased flooding and prolonged droughts are all set to increase in many parts of the world. Water shortage in particular has the potential to cause civil unrest. Africa is the most vulnerable continent to climate change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacities.




2. Second, increased migration. The UN predicts that there will be millions of "environmental" migrants by 2020 with climate change as one of the major drivers. Such massive migration flows are likely to increase conflicts in transit and destination areas. This may lead to greater tensions between different ethnic and religious groups and political radicalisation.




3. And third, what happens to oil, gas and fishing resources if borders and territories change, or disappear beneath the sea? Can the rights and responsibilities of a country exist with no landmass, as is predicted for some Pacific islands? What happens if the Northwest passage becomes permanently passable? If handled well, this is a huge opportunity. But without an agreed international framework, as is, for example, the case in the Arctic, on how to assess and adjudicate territorial claims, political tensions are bound to rise.

"What are we proposing?

1. First, to build up EU capacities across the board: from monitoring and early warning, to conflict prevention, crisis management and disaster response. If we agree as EU that the security impact of climate change is real and affecting our own interests then we should make the necessary financial resources available.

2. We should also develop "carbon diplomacy". We need to do more focused research and shared analysis with partners on what the security hotspots will be and how we can best tackle them together. In all our relationships - from Africa to the Middle East, from Latin America to Central Asia and beyond - we should raise awareness about the security effects of climate change and build capacity in those countries that will be hit hardest.

3. Third, we need to see whether existing rules of the game are "climate-proof". With rising waters and melting sea ice, there is an increasing need to address the growing debate over territorial claims, exclusive economic zones, and access to new trade routes. There might be a need to strengthen existing rules of international law such as the Law of the Sea. Some countries that are extremely vulnerable to climate change are also calling for international recognition of environmentally induced migration."