Crise alimentar a nível mundial

Tenho aqui um conjunto de artigos sobre a crise alimentar a nível mundial. O problema tem causas próximas (uma é retratada no gráfico acima - ver em Econbrowser: Food prices ) e outras, que o não são tanto, já que se prendem com o enquadramento político, e a evolução económica tecnológica, do sector agrícola nos últimos 15 a 20 anos. Uma questão que se coloca é a rapidez com que esta crise será resolvida e o que terá de ser tido em linha de conta na transformação da actividade nos próximos anos - e.g., subsidiação da agricultura, comércio internacional de produtos alimentares, produtos agrícolas geneticamente modificados... Isto tudo servindo de alerta à necessidade de se estar atento às consequências das alterações climáticas na actividade agrícola - por exemplo, uma das modificações previstas como decorrendo daquelas será o aumento, em quantidade e em intensidade, dos surtos de seca...

• Econbrowser: Food prices: Comentário à política de subsidiação da produção de etanol a partir do milho:

  "As a result of ethanol subsidies and mandates, the dollar value of what we ourselves throw away in order to produce fuel in this fashion could be 50% greater than the value of the fuel itself. In other words, we could have more food for the Haitians, more fuel for us, and still have something left over for your other favorite cause, if we were simply to use our existing resources more wisely. We have adopted this policy not because we want to drive our cars, but because our elected officials perceive a greater reward from generating a windfall for American farmers. But the food price increases are now biting ordinary Americans as well."

• Geoorge Monbiot: Credit crunch? The real crisis is global hunger. And if you care, eat less meat Comment is free The Guardian:

  "Never mind the economic crisis. Focus for a moment on a more urgent threat: the great food recession that is sweeping the world faster than the credit crunch. You have probably seen the figures by now: the price of rice has risen by three-quarters over the past year, that of wheat by 130%. There are food crises in 37 countries. One hundred million people, according to the World Bank, could be pushed into deeper poverty by the high prices. But I bet that you have missed the most telling statistic. At 2.1bn tonnes, the global grain harvest broke all records last year - it beat the previous year's by almost 5%. The crisis, in other words, has begun before world food supplies are hit by climate change. If hunger can strike now, what will happen if harvests decline? There is plenty of food. It is just not reaching human stomachs. Of the 2.13bn tonnes likely to be consumed this year, only 1.01bn, according to the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organisation, will feed people."

• FT.com / Comment & analysis / FT Columnists - A modest proposal for preventing world famine:

  "...Manila has not been able to buy enough rice abroad to secure food for its people, because no one has wanted to sell. ...The price of rice has more than doubled in a year. ... Riots over food prices have erupted across Africa .... It is tempting to assume that the problem is purely one of supply and can be fixed by genetically modified plants or investment in a new “green revolution” to boost crop yields.

  The three most productive solutions, however, are all matters of policy.

  First, there is an urgent need for a sustained liberalisation of agricultural trade. The immediate cause of this crisis is not – perhaps surprisingly – a shortage of food. The problem is the sudden reluctance of traditional exporters to sell their surpluses. ... Trust in the efficiency and liquidity of the market has collapsed. Farm protectionism is not new and international markets are grotesquely distorted by tariffs and subsidies. The main producers – particularly the European Union and the US – have jealously protected their farm sectors from foreign competition, partly on food security grounds. International farm trade has nevertheless managed satisfactorily for decades to redistribute surpluses of staple foods. The current seizures in the markets are therefore a cause for general alarm. ...

  The second level at which policies need to change is national. Like international trade, domestic trade in farm produce is often highly distorted. While developed nations tend to support their farmers at the expense of consumers, developing countries typically subsidise city-dwellers at the expense of rural smallholders, who receive low prices and have no incentive to increase their output.

  Third and last, governments need to examine their population policies and limit population growth. Although there is enough grain to go round at the moment, you do not need to be a neo-Malthusian to worry about the demand implications of a global population rising by about 80m people a year or to notice that countries with fast-growing populations... are especially vulnerable to disruptions in the world’s food trade. Perhaps we should not worry too much that global rice stocks are expected to fall this year to the lowest level in 25 years. Some of the changes recommended above for international and domestic food trade regimes could reverse the decline, probably within a few years.

  A more disturbing thought is that we may in the longer term be approaching the limits of our ability to exploit the natural resources required for food production – crude oil, cultivable land, soil fertility and available fresh water, to name a few. Strains on one resource, furthermore, quickly lead to additional strains on another. To make fresh water, more cities are burning fuel to desalinate seawater, but that helps push up the price of oil. To make substitutes for crude oil, farmers are being encouraged to switch to biofuel production, but that uses almost as much fuel as it produces and contributes in its turn to shortages of food."

• Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No.2,April 2008 Across Globe, Empty Bellies Bring Rising Anger - New York Times.

• A Drought in Australia, a Global Shortage of Rice - New York Times:
  "The collapse of Australia’s rice production is one of several factors contributing to a doubling of rice prices in the last three months — increases that have led the world’s largest exporters to restrict exports severely, spurred panicked hoarding in Hong Kong and the Philippines, and set off violent protests in countries including Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Haiti, Indonesia, Italy, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, the Philippines, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Yemen."

• Food The silent tsunami Economist.com:

  "Agriculture is now in limbo. The world of cheap food has gone. With luck and good policy, there will be a new equilibrium. The transition from one to the other is proving more costly and painful than anyone had expected. But the change is desirable, and governments should be seeking to ease the pain of transition, not to stop the process itself."

• Food and the poor The new face of hunger Economist.com:

  "But the food scare of 2008, severe as it is, is only a symptom of a broader problem. The surge in food prices has ended 30 years in which food was cheap, farming was subsidised in rich countries and international food markets were wildly distorted. Eventually, no doubt, farmers will respond to higher prices by growing more and a new equilibrium will be established. If all goes well, food will be affordable again without the subsidies, dumping and distortions of the earlier period. But at the moment, agriculture has been caught in limbo. The era of cheap food is over. The transition to a new equilibrium is proving costlier, more prolonged and much more painful than anyone had expected."

Aditamento (08.04.21)

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