Lá como cá, os políticos ...

"In tough times, politicians squabble (*). Out of this heat, light should emerge. Alas, it is not doing so, at least in the UK" diz Martin Wolf, do Financial Times - lá como cá.

O artigo é interessante e pode ser acedido em FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - Political game of blind man’s buff. O artigo desmonta, em particular, a argumentação do líder conservador sobre as razões e soluções para a crise actual (http://www.davidcameronmp.com/). A dado ponto faz referência à posição de Cameron sobre a desejabilidade da propriedade privada da habitação para todos e considera-a tonta. Contudo, é o modo como conclui, discutindo o regresso à "normalidade", que é o mais relevante para outros contextos:

"If by “normal” one means the pre-2007 economy, that goal is both unobtainable and undesirable. The post-crisis economy must be utterly different from before. ... What does this mean? It means a return to growth, despite lower levels of private borrowing, higher savings rates and a move to fiscal balance. If the government knows how to achieve this combination, it has not said so. So what are the required elements?

• "First, the economy will have to grow out of its over-indebtedness during many years. It is important to sustain the financial system, but crazy to expect a return to buoyant lending.
• Second, the current account will have to go into surplus, to generate activity without extra borrowing.
• Third, higher savings will also be needed. That is partly because output of tradeable goods is more capital intensive than that of services.
• Fourth, it makes sense to use a substantial portion of today’s massive government borrowing for investment, particularly in infrastructure. Such investment must make sense when the government can borrow cheaply [devido à restrição do endividamento externo, parece não ser o caso de Portugal].
• Fifth, the transition to an economy with higher exports is going to take years. The fall of sterling should help. But the economy will depend on large net inflows of capital for some years.
• Finally, the government must indeed maintain fiscal and monetary credibility. If a return to inflation is widely feared, the game will be up for the UK. The danger is not only deflation, but also a sterling collapse, a jump in inflation expectations and a spike in long-term government bond rates.

  The Bank of England was right to cut interest rates modestly this time.

What is needed now is a plan of escape into what should be a different economy. The opposition does have some notion of the need for such a strategic shift [não tem em Portugal, e muito menos na RAA], but has a foolish response to the immediate crisis. The government now has a broadly sensible response to the crisis [a nível nacional, talvez; a nível regional, ainda não], but no strategic view [a nível nacional, afirmativo, pelo menos em algumas áreas; não, de todo, a nível regional]. Each condemns the other for its failings [Lá como cá]. Meanwhile, the hapless UK economy flounders [Tenho medo disso em Portugal; na RAA, a ver vamos]."

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(*) Definição do diccionário ENCARTA: "argue noisily over something unimportant: to have a petty argument over a trivial matter"