Europa e a conjuntura económica: o que fazer?

Existem sérias preocupações sobre se a União Europeia está a fazer o suficiente, quer no que respeita à sua parte no esforço global de combate à crise, quer no que respeita ao que deveria fazer internamente quanto, por exemplo, ao tipo de instrumentos a que poderia e deveria recorrer. Por outro lado, discute-se o que se deverá fazer se houver o perigo de um EM (estado membro) ir à falência, e qual a actuação da política económica que tem de ser seguida.

O conjunto de artigos indicados abaixo abrangem tudo isso (e não estão ordenados por datas) e, alguns, falam de situações particulares:

1. FT.com / Columnists / Wolfgang Munchau - Collective action on the crisis is our best hope
   

   "Policymakers by and large understand there is a crisis. But many of them, including a majority of European leaders in particular, still underestimate its likely impact; and, more importantly, they misjudge the dynamics. They congratulate themselves on the moderate stimulus packages they have been able to agree on. [...] This attitude worked in the past because Europe generally relied on the US to create global demand. [...] This time, the US will not be able to create a global recovery on its own. Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, and Larry Summers, director of the National Economic Council under President Barack Obama, have pushed for a co-ordinated response by the Group of 20 summit in London on April 2. [...] The French and the Germans want the G20 summit to focus only on the long-term issues. [...]
   

   The case for global co-ordination is overwhelming. There are at least three issues that could be tackled far more effectively by the G20 than by national governments alone. The first is a co-ordinated stimulus. The economic rationale for co-ordination is to increase the effectiveness of the stimulus – the so-called multiplier. [...] The second issue is crisis prevention. We are facing the problem of a massive withdrawal of finance from central and eastern European (CEE) countries. [...] Third, there is a need for global co-ordination when we finally come to sort out the banking system. There are some huge cross-country spillovers. "
   



2. Economist's View: Should the EU Let a Member Government Default?
   



3. European government bailouts: Should we let one go broke? vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists:
   

   "Some European governments are contemplating bailouts of other European governments. This column argues that violating the Eurozone’s no-bailout clause this soon would be a mistake. Much as it was necessary to let Lehman Brothers go down before bailing out the remaining banks, it may be necessary to let a profligate government default and ask for IMF assistance."
   



4. The EU Bonds Story Rumbles On afoe A Fistful of Euros European Opinion February 18, 2009
   



5. The EU Bonds Story Rumbles On
   

   
   



6. Silva Lopes defende congelamento e redução de salários - Expresso.pt

   O ex-ministro das Finanças, José Silva Lopes, defendeu hoje o congelamento dos salários da generalidade dos portugueses e uma redução dos salários mais elevados, como uma medida de combate à crise. A-propósito desta posição ver The Long And Difficult Road To Wage Cuts As An Alternative To Devaluation afem A Few Euros More More European Opinion.



7. The Dutch and fiscal stimulus Fingers in the dyke The Economist


8. Ireland's deep recession hits home The party is definitely over The Economist


9. FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - Why saving the world economy should be affordable
   

   "[...] there is also a current agenda: rebalancing of world demand. Surplus countries subcontract to their trading partners the job of spending oneself into bankruptcy, while lecturing the latter on their profligacy. Thus the reason the US, the UK and Spain have huge fiscal deficits is that they are offsetting the collapse of private spending at home and the export of demand abroad. This is unsustainable, in the long run. The danger now is that the surplus countries expect recovery to come from enormous and sustained fiscal expansion in deficit countries. Some analysts argue that the US should have refused to take fiscal action at all, leaving it to surplus countries. Unfortunately, that would have meant a global depression. Nevertheless, without rebalancing there can be no healthy recovery. On this point, the US is right and Germany is wrong."