Quando acaba a crise no mundo?

As notícias continuam a não ser boas de todo. Parece que a velocidade da queda (da recessão) está a desacelerar (teríamos ultrapassado o fim da parte vertical do lado esquerdo do U - ver aqui - e estaríamos no início da cova do mesmo): ninguém, no entanto, pode assegurar, na ausência de uma recaída, qual o tempo que iremos levar a percorrê-la e como será a conformação da perna direita da crise - a do início da retoma.

Algumas opiniões do que vai suceder neste, e no próximo ano:

• De Wolfgang Munchau:
  [...] Of course, economic growth rates are bound to improve soon for technical reasons. Otherwise, not much would be left of the global economy by the end of the year.

  Even if a recovery were to start early in 2010, as some optimistic forecasters believe, most of the pain of the recession is still ahead of us: unemployment and default rates will rise sharply everywhere. Most of the pain in the financial sector is also still ahead of us. This will feel like a depression long after it has ceased to be one.I am more worried now than I was a month ago. [...]

  Remember that all the public and private sector forecasters are still busy adjusting their 2009 economic projections downwards. The latest downward revision for Germany came from Commerzbank last week, which now projects 2009 growth at a negative 6-7 per cent for this year.[...]

  The economy is trapped in a vicious circle where credit crunch and recession mutually reinforce each other [...].
  Continuar a ler em FT.com / Columnists / Wolfgang Munchau - A new plan needed as the cycle grows vicios
  

• De Paul Krugman:
  "Mostly this is in the form of things getting worse more slowly, but it wouldn’t be surprising if we see, say, an uptick in industrial production in a few months, as the inventory cycle runs its course.If so, that doesn’t mean the worst is over. There was a pause in the plunge in early 1931, and many people started to breathe easier. They were wrong.

  So far, there’s nothing pointing to a fundamental turnaround this year, or next, or for that matter as far as the eye can see."

  Ler emPartying like it’s 1931 - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
  

• RGE - There may eventually be light at the end of the tunnel…but not as soon and fast as the bullish consensus makes it: CNBC Squawk Box Interview
  [...] the rate of economic contraction will slow from the -6% of Q1 to a figure closer to -2% and next year the economic recovery will be so weak – growth below 1% and unemployment rate peaking at 10% - that it will still feel like a recession even if we may be technically out of it.

  So, compared to the bullish consensus that sees positive growth at 2% by Q3-Q4 of this year and return to potential growth by 2010 my views are still consistently more bearish than the consensus.

  Still, compared to the sharp contraction in US and global growth in Q1 of this year (about -6%) the rate of economic contraction will slow down towards -2% for the US and other advanced economies by year end. That is only a mild improvement and still a severe U-shaped recession with a very weak and tentative recovery by 2010."
  

• World Bank: global economy will shrink for first time on record FP Passport
  "The World Bank's crystal ball is not emitting pleasant forecasts this morning, with the release of the latest Global Economic Prospects Report: "Global GDP is expected to contract by 1.7 percent in 2009, which would be the first decline in world output on record," the report concludes. Developed economies will fall into "deep recession" -- witness Japan's 12.1 percent drop in GDP in the 4th quarter of 2008, or worse still, 21 and 25 percent drops in South Korea and Japan respectively. [...]

  By region, Eastern Europe and Central Asia are worst off thanks to their coming into the crisis with deficits and a binge of foreign cash (which, as you guessed, has now fled.) Latin America will suffer; so will Africa as commodity prices will stay low, trade slows, and foreign investment dries up. East Asia will be hit by the 6.1 percent gutting of global trade expected in 2009. 84 of 109 developing countries are expected to face "financing gaps" in their government budgets this year.

  The good news? A modest recovery might be coming in 2010..."However, continued banking problems or even new waves of tension in financial markets could lead to stagnation in global GDP or even to another year of decline in 2010."