8 de fevereiro de 2010

E continua...

  • Wunder Blog : Weather Underground: "According to the National Climatic Data Center, the expected return period in the Washington D.C./Baltimore region for snowstorms with more than 16 inches of snow is about once every 25 years. This one-two punch of two major Nor'easters in one winter with 16+ inches of snow is unprecedented in the historical record for the region, which goes back to the late 1800s."
  • Working out future sea level rise from the past: "Predicting future sea level rise is tough. A growing contributor to sea level rise is ice sheets that break off into the ocean. However, ice sheet dynamics are non-linear and difficult to predict. The IPCC 4th Assessment Report essentially ignores ice sheet dynamics, predicting sea level rise of 18 to 59 cm by 2100. More recent research accounting for accelerating ice sheets predict sea level rise of 75 cm to 2 metres by 2100 (Vermeer 2009, Pfeffer 2008). Even these latest predictions admit they may not fully predict the non-linear aspect of ice sheet dynamics. However, there is another way to determine future sea level rise that neatly sidesteps the complexities of non-linear dynamics. Look at how sea level has responded to temperature change in the past."

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