Euro e Portugal

Mais sobre o Euro, mas, agora, incidindo também sobre o caso português. 

A primeira referência abaixo do The Portuguese Economy traz um conjunto de opiniões de economistas portugueses sobre a questão de devermos recorrer ou não à intervenção externa - escolhi reproduzir duas dessas opiniões; a segunda referência é de um artigo de Martin Wolf sobre a situação da Zona Euro onde se faz menção de um estudo da Nomura (dá-se o link) e se apresentam gráficos que ilustram bem a situação portuguesa; a terceira, também do primeiro blogue, remete-nos para um artigo sobre a posição alemã em toda esta situação. Todo este material deveria ser acedido para leitura integral.

• The Portuguese Economy: Does Portugal need a bail-out?:

Here are the views on this key question as contributed by some of the economists writing in this blog:

[....]

Pedro Pita Barros:

Portugal can benefit from a bail out. Is it essential? Not necessarily, depends on what price is to be paid for it. An Irish-like intervention will not help much. If that's what is on the table, then I would say no to the bail out. The bail out is worthwhile only if the discipline mechanism does not include to a considerable extent high interest rates.

Pedro S. Martins:

Yes. Things need to change as the current combination of high debt and high interest rates is clearly unsustainable. It's not equitable to burden young people and the future generations with so much debt and all the taxes that follow. The bail-out would mark a clear threshold in the management of the Portuguese economy and prompt much-delayed reforms that can restore productivity growth and ensure this decade will not be completely lost.

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• FT.com / Comment & analysis / Matin Wolf /FT Columnists - Why the eurozone will survive: 

     [não se fazem transcrições porque o FT não o autoriza]

“Europe will work”, Nomura Global Economics under the direction of John Llewellyn and Peter Westaway

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The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Klau on the eurozone mess:

"According to Thomas Klau, “the assumption that the coordination of 17 national policies backed up by rules and sanctions can deliver” is “patently false”: ”the choice must ultimately be between discarding the euro or taking the plunge into a federal structure complete with Eurobonds, a common set of core policies, a bigger and more flexible EU budget, and so on.” If that really is the choice — and one can debate this of course — then my money is on the former, especially given the way the current banking and debt crisis is playing out in both core and periphery. You can read the full article here: The Eurozone's new clothes .

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