Leituras sobre a conjuntura portuguesa

É um conjunto de coisas que fui lendo ultimamente, sem comentários, porque isto tudo é demasiado deprimente, e não só. Vou acrescentar noutra nota o material mais genérico do ponto de vista europeu. Transcrevo só parte pelo que devem aceder aos originais. A arrumação é mais ou menos das mais recentes para as mais antigas, mas todas mantém-se atualizadas:

The Portuguese Economy: CGD: Privatization or Resolution?: "What we face now in the European Union is not a normal negotiation. It is a negotiation between creditor and debtor countries with an economic value without precedent in the history of the Eurozone and probably in the history of the European Union. At the end of 2009, the non-consolidated net external debt of the Eurozone “pheripheral” countries was €1.3 trillion (gross: €4.2 trillion including Ireland’s IFSC). To this you have to add the external debt of a number of countries in the Eastern Europe block. So, game theory suggests that the incentives for opportunistic behavior between EU partners are huge, because the stakes are simply so large. I argued this point in a recent Vox column.

This is why it is now of outmost importance that Portugal refuse to accept the current “aid” of the EFSF/FMI or the ESM after 2013.[....]

The Portuguese Economy: Privatizing Caixa: "This debate puzzles me. When I think of the big policy challenges in the Portuguese financial markets in the next 6-12 months, it is not privatizing the State bank that comes to my mind. Rather, it is whether or not to (partially) nationalize the private banks.[....]

Portugal: A Bailout Is Just the Start - BusinessWeek :

The road to health for Portugal, however, is less clear than the solutions for other troubled European countries.[....] The causes are less clear in the case of Portugal's crisis. It didn't fiddle with the figures as Greece did, and it didn't experience a financial runup along the lines of Ireland's. What it has experienced is grindingly slow growth. [....]

Portugal has "fundamental problems," [....] They cite the country's uncompetitive export sector, poor education standards, and high unemployment benefits as factors that "have held back the economy for the last 10 years." As part of the euro zone, the government could mask those problems by borrowing cheaply, throwing money at its massive public sector, and piling up debt. [....].

The Portuguese Economy: Public Debt 1850-2011:

[clicar para aceder a uma versão maior]

Prós e contras de recorrer à ajuda da UE e do FMI | Económico: "A ajuda aligeira os custos da dívida, mas pode comprometer o desempenho da economia.

A escalada dos juros no mercado secundário, aliada ao apertado calendário de reembolsos de dívida até Junho, tornam cada vez mais provável que Portugal tenha de recorrer ao Fundo Europeu de Estabilização Financeira (FEEF) e ao FMI. Conheças as vantagens e desvantagens desta opção.

The Portuguese Economy: Income Account vs Trade Account: a dramatic milestone for Portugal:

"Portugal exagerou mais que a Grécia" | Económico: "Para o economista, Portugal desprezou totalmente as regras do não endividamento: 'Portugal tem o défice maior dos países todos da União Europeia. Portugal exagerou. Mais que a Grécia, mais que a Espanha. Em Portugal, o desprezo pelas regras do bom senso do não endividamento foram totais', sublinhou.

– Enviado através da Barra de ferramentas do Google"