Can Portugal survive until new elections? | Brussels blog | News on the European Union from the Financial Times – FT.com: "The liquidity issues of the sovereign are a symptom, not the cause, of the country’s difficulties, which has been struggling with slow growth and a current account of 10% of GDP since the start of monetary union. In our view, Portugal is a country which needs to be taken “off market” for a few years to implement far-reaching structural reforms without immediate pressure on capital costs. However, given the political configuration in Lisbon and in Europe it may take some time for concrete support to materialize.
The Portuguese Economy: Minimising future problems: "Some evidence that I obtained earlier indicates that state-owned firms in Portugal tend to increase their hirings considerably (by as much as 50%) in the months just before general elections. Now that an election will probably take place very soon - and when some of those firms have so many financial problems -, it would be really important to try to minimise that very peculiar pattern of hirings this time.
The Austerity Delusion - NYTimes.com: "Portugal’s government has just fallen in a dispute over austerity proposals. Irish bond yields have topped 10 percent for the first time. And the British government has just marked its economic forecast down and its deficit forecast up.What do these events have in common? They’re all evidence that slashing spending in the face of high unemployment is a mistake. Austerity advocates predicted that spending cuts would bring quick dividends in the form of rising confidence, and that there would be few, if any, adverse effects on growth and jobs; but they were wrong.It’s too bad, then, that these days you’re not considered serious in Washington unless you profess allegiance to the same doctrine that’s failing so dismally in Europe.
Portugal Debt Restructuring Weighed - NYTimes.com: "The lesson is clear, argues Barry Eichengreen, an economist and an expert on the euro and its origins — sustained austerity that is not supplemented by some form of debt reduction in which the holders of bank or government debt are forced to take a loss is not just unworkable but unfair as well.“When you reduce the incomes of the people who service the debt but you don’t reduce the incomes of the bondholders, you won’t reduce the level of debt,” he said. “Some might call it shared sacrifice, but some people are not sharing.”While the argument against restructuring has been that the risks of contagion are too high, it is becoming increasingly clear that the real reason behind Europe’s reluctance to accept losses on Greek, Irish and Portuguese debt is that the cost to European banks would be prohibitive.
– Enviado através da Barra de ferramentas do Google"
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário