Leituras sobre os ajustamentos orçamentais e o seu impacto na dívida e no crescimento

Pois é - faz todo o sentido o que se diz no primeiro artigo referenciado, e concorre para a imagem que se vai criando sobre isto tudo. 

A ideia que uma contração orçamental  consiga ter efeitos expansionistas foi ventilada num paper (ver também, a propósito, aqui e aqui) de   Alesina e Ardagna onde se afirmava, nomeadamente, que os melhores resultados em termos de ajustamento, medidos pelos rácios da dívida e do défice sobre o PIB, nos paises da OCDE entre 1970 e 2007, se tinham conseguido com cortes na despesa (e sem aumentos dos impostos).Mas uma análise mais detalhada dos casos estudados indicou (estou a referir de memória já que não consegui recuperar as referências  - há esta aqui que não aborda bem aquilo que estou a dizer) que os sucessos (Irlanda, nos anos 80; Suécia, nos anos 90, ...), sem entrar em outras qualificações, teriam ocorrido (necessariamente) em situações particulares e no quadro de situações económicas internacionais favoráveis. Daqui se retira que se todos fazem o mesmo, e o mesmo que fazem é contração orçamental, nada feito.

O segundo artigo referenciado, de Olivier Blanchard  e Carlo Cottarelli, aborda também a questão dos ajustamentos orçamentais, e o que diz é muito mais matizado e qualificado. É de leitura completa imprescindível: é ler e comparar com o que está a suceder em Portugal.

O bold em ambos casos é meu.

Líderes europeus perderam a noção do todo | Económico

Os muitos erros cometidos na resposta à crise da zona euro têm uma causa comum: a zona euro é uma grande economia fechada. Cada um dos seus 17 membros é pequeno e aberto, ao passo que os líderes políticos que governam a zona euro têm uma mentalidade de pequena economia aberta - todos, sem excepção. Mas não só. A maior parte dos economistas ao seu serviço também usa pequenos modelos económicos abertos.

[...] Foi o raciocínio de pequenas economias abertas que deu origem a pacotes de austeridade orçamental descoordenados. No conjunto, tiveram efeitos profundamente negativos no crescimento, [....]

[....] Custa-me a crer que pessoas com uma experiência sólida em macroeconomia e o mínimo sentido de honestidade defendam a ideia de uma contracção orçamental expansionista ou - menos grave, apesar de tudo - considerem que programas de austeridade coordenados não vão afectar o crescimento no curto prazo.

Jaime Guajardo, Daniel Leigh e Andrea Pescatori*, economistas do FMI, divulgaram recentemente novas provas empíricas sobre as contracções orçamentais expansionistas, com base num amplo leque de dados dos países da OCDE. Os resultados do seu estudo deitam aquela teoria por terra.

[....] Um país pode ter razões para impor medidas de austeridade, mas não pode iludir-se e pensar que não terão impacto macroeconómico.

Ten commandments for fiscal adjustment in advanced economies | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

Advanced economies are facing the difficult challenge of implementing fiscal adjustment strategies without undermining a still-fragile economic recovery. Fiscal adjustment is key to high private investment and long-term growth. It may also be key, at least in some countries, to avoiding disorderly financial market conditions, which would have a more immediate impact on growth through effects on confidence and lending. But too much adjustment could also hamper growth, and this is not a trivial risk. How should fiscal strategies be designed to make them consistent with both short-term and long-term growth requirements?

We offer ten commandments to make this possible. Put simply, what advanced countries need is clarity of intent, an appropriate calibration of fiscal targets, and adequate structural reforms – with a little help from monetary policy and their (emerging market) friends.

• Commandment I: You shall have a credible medium-term fiscal plan with a visible anchor (in terms of either an average pace of adjustment, or of a fiscal target to be achieved within 4–5 years).

[....]

• Commandment II: You shall not front-load your fiscal adjustment, unless financing needs require it.

For a few countries, frontloading may be needed to maintain access to markets and finance the deficit at reasonable rates – but, in general, a steady pace of adjustment is more important than front-loading, which could undermine the recovery and be reversed. Nonetheless, a non-trivial first installment is needed; promises of future action will not be enough.

[....]

• Commandment III: You shall target a long-term decline in the public debt-to-GDP ratio, not just its stabilisation at post-crisis levels.

[....]

• Commandment IV: You shall focus on fiscal consolidation tools that are conducive to strong potential growth.

This will require a bias towards (current) spending cuts, as spending ratios are high in advanced countries and require highly distortionary tax levels.[....]

This said, nothing should be ruled out. Countries with low revenue ratios and large adjustment needs – like the US and Japan – will also have to act on the revenue side. Promising “no new taxes,” in all countries and circumstances, is unrealistic.

• Commandment V: You shall pass early pension and health care reforms as current trends are unsustainable.

[....]

• Commandment VI: You shall be fair. To be sustainable over time, the fiscal adjustment should be equitable.

[....]

• Commandment VII: You shall implement wide reforms to boost potential growth.

Strong growth has a staggering effect on public debt: a one percentage point increase in potential growth – assuming a tax ratio of 40% – lowers the debt ratio by 10 percentage points within 5 years and by 30 percentage points within 10 years, if the resulting higher revenues are saved. An acceleration of labour, product and financial market reforms will thus be critical. 

In the current context of weak aggregate demand, reforms that increase investment are more desirable than reforms that increase saving. While both have positive long-run effects, investment friendly reforms increase demand and output in the short run, while saving friendly reforms do the opposite. A word of caution, though: the timing and magnitude of the effects of structural reforms on growth are uncertain: fiscal adjustment plans relying on faster growth would not be credible.

• Commandment VIII: You shall strengthen your fiscal institutions.

[....]

• Commandment IX: You shall properly coordinate monetary and fiscal policy.

If fiscal policy is tightened, interest rates should not be raised as rapidly as in other phases of economic recovery. Calls for an early monetary policy tightening in advanced economies are misplaced.

• Commandment X: You shall coordinate your policies with other countries.

In a number of advanced countries, the reduction in budget deficits must come with a reduction in current account deficits. Put another way, if the recovery is to be maintained, the initial adverse effects of fiscal consolidation on internal demand have to be offset by stronger external demand. But this implies that the opposite happens in the rest of the world.

In a number of emerging market economies, current account surpluses must be reduced, and these countries must shift from external to internal demand. The recent decisions taken by China are, in this respect, an important and welcome step. Policy coordination will also be important in some structural areas: for example, over the medium term, it will be critical to protect fiscal revenues from rising tax competition.

Obey these commandments, and chances are high that you will achieve fiscal consolidation and sustained growth.