Este artigo do FT vem no seguimento de outro do mesmo jornal, onde se discutia a situação da zona euro, e referido aqui:
"[...] The underlying problem is a policy divergence between France, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece on one side, and Germany, Finland, Austria, and the Netherlands on the other. The policy divide between France and Germany is the most damaging. Paris dropped a bombshell last week when it said it no longer aimed to reduce the French budget deficit to under 3 per cent of gross domestic product by 2012. [...] Even on optimistic growth assumptions, France will not hit the target until 2015 at the earliest. By then the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio will have reached more than 90 per cent. This means that France has effectively given up on policy co-ordination within the eurozone, [...]I would also expect the debt-to-GDP ratio of Spain to head into the same neighbourhood.
Since it would be unwise to hope for much in terms of deficit reduction from Silvio Berlusconi’s government in Italy, we are likely to end up with debt-to-GDP ratios in three of the four large eurozone economies settling at levels close to 100 per cent. Germany, by contrast, has committed itself to the virtuous path. The previous coalition changed the constitution so that the federal deficit cannot exceed 0.35 per cent of GDP over the economic cycle. The new cap will take effect in 2016, but getting there will require fiscal consolidation. This deficit target implies a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 10 per cent in the long run. The fiscal divergence inside the eurozone will then become intolerable.
[...] What are the long-term consequences of sustained divergence?
Ler em FT.com / Columnists / Wolfgang Munchau - Diverging deficits could fracture the eurozone
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