Portugal: a boa consolidação orçamental?

É uma apreciação (indirecta) da política orçamental seguida em Portugal, pelo Governo Sócrates: "... sem "verdadeiros cortes" na despesa não há consolidação orçamental". Fico preocupado por aquilo qué é dito e por quem é dito: Professor Campos e Cunha. Ele aplica à situação portuguesa as "10 lições acerca de consolidação orçamental", de Jens Henriksson. Jens Henriksson, foi secretário de estado das finanças no governo sueco e participou num dos processos mais duros, e com sucesso, de consolidação orçamental, nas últimas décadas, na Europa - o défice orçamental sueco, no período 1995-1999, passou de um défice de 17% do PIB para um excedente. É um documento notável, conciliando o bom conhecimento económico com o bom senso e a boa táctica política - pode ser lido por qualquer interessado na articulação dessas duas áreas, com proveito e prazer, mesmo sem grandes conhecimentos de economia. As lições têm aplicação "urbi et orbi".

Alguns "sound bites":

1. 
   It is not a paper about how to get rid of the welfare state. On the contrary, it is about how to strengthen the economic foundations for whatever kind of social model that is preferred. The budget consolidation in Sweden was dramatic but it preserved, and in many ways modernised and improved, the welfare system.
2. My view is that a deep crisis certainly increases the understanding of what needs to be done. It played a huge role in Sweden. But there are other ways of doing it. Never underestimate political leadership. A strong politician can portray important problems as the salient issue in a country.
3. Good policy is not knowing how to get out of a crisis. Good policy is avoiding getting into one in the first place.
4. A country which can avoid making policy mistakes is a country that will outperform most others. Risk aversion is king in economic policy.
5. A large deficit can also keep up demand in an economic downturn. It is not a problem if a country runs a deficit in public finances as a part of an active stabilisation policy. But if you argue like that, you have to be consistent and be just as strong an advocate of running a surplus in good times. It is easy to get support and friends when you argue for running a deficit during downturns, but it and they will disappear when the good times come. Then you will be fighting alone. Remember, the future has no lobbyists.
6. Sometimes we tend to forget the moral dimension of what we are doing. There is no questioning that in a country with a large deficit and debt, citizens will sooner or later lose respect for the political system. In the end confidence in democracy itself will diminish, since everyone knows that something has to be done, but nothing is happening.
7. A priority is only of interest when it is tested against other priorities. The same applies for goals.
8. By the way, if the economists do not complain, you are in trouble. Remember that everyone should complain!
   

Haveria muito mais ...