Actuação do BCE versus FED

Interessante e cruza com aspectos já referidos neste blogue (ver aqui, aqui e aqui):

• FT.com / Columnists / Wolfgang Munchau - Trichet justified in diverging from the Fed
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  We have been talking about decoupling for a long time. Now it is happening. No, I do not mean that the European or Asian economies are decoupling from the US. The world economy is too interlinked for real economic decoupling to take place. But there is a form of decoupling we are seeing now that we did not see before: monetary policy decoupling.

  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  In the past, European central bankers tended to follow the US Federal Reserve, often with delay, never perfectly, but generally in the same direction. ... The policy response to our most recent financial crisis has been different. While the Fed cut by an accumulated 325 basis points, the Europeans first refused to follow, and they are now moving in the opposite direction. ... The reason is not a rise in oil or food prices, about which monetary policy can do nothing, but an increase in various measures of inflation expectations. ... By moving in the opposite direction from the Fed, the ECB is providing a much more appropriate domestic policy response than what would have been possible under a national currency regime. The ability to do this constitutes quite possibly one of the biggest economic benefits of the euro. It has not only domestic but global implications. In particular, it limits the Fed’s own room for manoeuvre, something that would have been unthinkable only a few years ago.

  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  If the Europeans had followed the Americans again, the Fed would probably have been in a position to cut interest rates further. The dollar would not have fallen as much and Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, would not have needed to revert to verbal intervention to prop up the dollar as he did last week. This suggests that in terms of global monetary policy, we are in the middle of a shift from a unipolar to a bipolar world.

  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  In the past, the Fed’s policy alone used to determine the global monetary policy stance – via the dollar, the global anchor currency. Through long periods of loose monetary policies, including lengthy episodes of negative real interest rates, the Fed contributed directly to the rise in global inflation. I am not referring to the recent commodity price increases but to the trend rise in inflation we have been observing for some time.

  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  European inflation has also risen as part of this global trend. If the ECB follows the course Mr Trichet appears to have set out, there is now a real possibility that the eurozone, and perhaps some other regions in the world as well, could decouple from this US-led trend. This is what I mean by policy decoupling.

  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  In theory, an independent central bank, under a floating currency regime, can achieve whatever inflation target it wants, no matter what happens elsewhere. In practice, central banks, even tough-talking ones such as the ECB, make compromises. The ECB would not have raised interest rates if the euro’s exchange rate to the dollar had been at $1.70, or if the economy looked as though it were to fall into a black hole. ... On its own, it will not get eurozone inflation back towards target over the next couple of years. For my taste, the ECB has moved too hesitantly and a little late. But at least it has been moving in the right direction.

  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  The policy goal of the Fed, meanwhile, appears to be avoidance of recession and minimising distress in the financial system. Price stability, which also ranks as one official goal in the Fed’s mandate, seems to be pursued by means of sanctimonious speeches, rather than policy action. As monetary policy of the world’s two largest economies moves in starkly opposite directions, interesting possibilities are opening up.

  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  One is whether the dollar will decline prematurely as a global currency – an issue on which economists are divided. Differential inflation rates could plausibly trigger such a shift. As US inflation rises, more and more countries may unpeg from the dollar to avoid imported inflation. If this trend persisted, the US would risk losing its exorbitant privilege – the ability to live beyond its means thanks to a globally domineering currency. This is not a forecast. It is a scenario conditional on policy choices. The central bank of Turkey last week responded to the rise in inflation by raising the inflation target. That is one way of dealing with the problem but not a credible one. Alternatively, you can stick to your target under adverse circumstances. The ECB is trying to do the latter. I suspect it will subsequently be seen as the better response.