16 de março de 2008

O Champanhe como indicador da conjuntura económica


Um argumento curioso a favor da tese do decoupling da evolução económica dos EUA da do resto do mundo (ver aqui a discussão do tópico), é este, referido no Economist.com, em Champagne Fizzing along:



"Champagne is a drink that is generally quaffed when times are good. And for nearly 40 years the world has apparently had much to celebrate: exports of French fizz soared to over 150m bottles last year. Nonetheless, the world's thirst for champagne is particularly sensitive to economic turmoil. As oil prices have peaked (and the world economy has foundered) exports of bubbly have dipped. The oil shocks of the 1970s, economic downturn in the late 1980s and the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000 all took a toll. Now record champagne exports and oil prices might suggest a period of “decoupling”. However, the effects of the credit crunch may yet be felt in the vineyards of northern France."

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