Sobre as questões de saúde, lá e cá.

Acabei de ouvir o médico e professor Manuel Sobrinho Simões discretear, no programa Contra Corrente da SIC Notícias, sobre o serviço nacional de saúde: bom senso; lucidez; inteligência; frontalidade e capacidade de equacionar,de modo convincente, os problemas de eficiência com a defesa dos direitos dos doentes. Se não viu, aceda ao site da SIC Notícias para visualizar o vídeo.

É óbvio que o serviço nacional (e regional) de saúde necessita de recursos financeiros, mas precisa (talvez mais) de tudo aquilo que o professor diz. Eu acentuaria aquilo que enfatizou sobre o carácter imperioso de responsabilizar os doentes na minimização dos factores de risco para a sua saúde. Mas para isso suceder é necessário esclarecer, trabalho dos profissionais de saúde é claro, mas não só - o combate ao consumo do tabaco foi assumido por todos, como deveria sê-lo, por exemplo, o combate ao consumo do açúcar (em todas as suas formas), às más práticas nutricionais (o Correio dos Açores trazia hoje um artigo muito interessante a esse respeito).... O cancro nos Açores combater-se-ia também assim, e se o trabalho fosse feito de modo adequado, não seriam necessários, eventualmente, tão grandes recursos financeiros como isso para obter resultados.

Na política da saúde, como nas outras políticas públicas, o esclarecimento, a responsabilização, e a participação dos cidadãos são condição incontronável de práticas e soluções políticas eficazes (e desculpem lá, eficientes). Ora, a responsabilidade do processo ser iniciado e sustentado impende sobre a classe política (governo e oposição), e o facto de ela não estar neste capítulo à altura é que faz com que alguns (muito poucos) vão aos arames. A política em Portugal, na parte que diz respeito à produção de bens públicos e semi-públicos, é somente uma questão de cobertura orçamental - e depois são aqueles que reclamam da eficácia e de eficiência é que são economicistas: veja-se a irritação do António Barreto com o uso e abuso do epíteto no lançamento de um livro da FFMS sobre a saúde, numa entrevista ao Expresso, em Dezembro passado,se bem me lembro.

E já agora, que tudo isso está ligado, para perceber como é que chegamos aqui, leiam (ainda estou a ler) de Paulo Trigo Pereira, Portugal: Dívida Pública e Défice Democrático, da Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos. É informação para os cidadãos, com os economistas a não perderem nada em lê-lo também (as licenciaturas, por vezes, aconteceram há muito).

O mundo está a ficar cada vez mais estranho... às vezes, pela positiva!

Isto vem mesmo a calhar após o referido na nota anterior, embora seja uma grande surpresa para mim, e isso não só pelo que o ministro (imagine-se,do petróleo) saudita diz do aquecimento global, mas pelo que diz sobre as energias renováveis (ler tudo):

Saudi Oil Minister Calls Global Warming "Humanity's Most Pressing Concern" | ThinkProgress

Pico de petróleo

Ontem, no programa do Medina Carreira na TV24, um especialista declarava que a tese do pico de petróleo tinha sido infirmada pelos factos. Existem outros que discordam e que rebatem todos os pontos referidos naquele programa (é necessário ler a nota na totalidade):

Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed: Stop wrangling over global warming and instead reduce fossil-fuel use for the sake of the global economy.

That’s the message from two scientists, one from the University of Washington and one from the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, who say in the current issue of the journal Nature (Jan. 26) that the economic pain of a flattening oil supply will trump the environment as a reason to curb the use of fossil fuels.

“Given our fossil-fuel dependent economies, this is more urgent and has a shorter time frame than global climate change,” says James W. Murray, UW professor of oceanography, who wrote the Nature commentary with David King, director of Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.

The “tipping point” for oil supply appears to have occurred around 2005, says Murray, who compared world crude oil production with world prices going back to 1998. Before 2005, supply of regular crude oil was elastic and increased in response to price increases. Since then, production appears to have hit a wall at 75 million barrels per day in spite of price increases of 15 percent each year.

O estímulo que não é tão estimulante como o pintam!

As coisas, normalmente, não são como, consensualmente, são pintadas. Os EUA, na perspectiva de muitos comentadores económicos europeus, são qualificados como tendo uma política orçamental não contracionista (pior, para-keynesiana), isto porque a administração Obama no seu início teve um programa de estímulo muito superior [não tenho certeza sobre isto, se o valor dos programas de estímulo europeus forem dados de forma agregada] à da europeia, e, note-se, apesar de economistas como Krugman terem afirmado, amiudada e estentóriamente, que a dimensão do estímulo de Obama não iria ser a suficiente. 

Enfim, os gráficos abaixo demonstram quem tem razão (penso que já tinha colocado o primeiro neste blogue):

FT Alphaville » The missing GDP

"Words fail me, but they’re hardly necessary"

The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Quote of the evening:

“Europe would not function any more if it changed course after every election.”

(Angela Merkel, quoted here, poo-pooing the notion that French voters might have any say over whether the next government ratifies this treaty or not.)

Words fail me, but they’re hardly necessary.

Algumas leituras sobre o momento económico europeu

Das mais antigas para as as mais recentes - aquelas que foram ficando.

The Origins of the Greek Financial Crisis | Foreign Affairs

So, as the Greek state expanded territorially it also expanded its responsibilities, undercutting old traditions of localism and community action. Herein lies the root of the country's current crisis. Long-established, autonomous local elites were displaced in the 1920s, their place taken by a new group of people adept at managing a rent-seeking relationship with the state. The new local leaders joined national parties and then worked to build up party machines by distributing state largesse. Not a single region or city of note mobilized its resources in pursuit of economic success, based on international competitiveness. Instead all major localities channeled central government resources into patronage. The central government, which was dominated by the same parties, was an energetic accomplice.

By the late 1980s, the interaction between local and national elites had already produced a highly dysfunctional system. Appointments to key institutions -- hospitals, museums, universities, and port authorities -- were not meritocratic. To become president of a university, one would need to buy off the student unions, which could deliver the votes needed to win an election. To run a hospital, one would had to have put in the time as a hanger-on of one of Greece's major national parties. Unconditional European Union funding in the 1980s and early 1990s, and easy international borrowing in the 2000s helped both the left and right finance unsustainable patronage politics.

According to Eurostat, the EU's statistical agency, public payroll expenses (salaries and pensions of civil servants) rose in Greece from 38 percent of state revenue in 2000 to 55 percent in 2009. Compounding this trend, local elites became hostile to any coherent national reform effort, precisely to preserve the system that now privileged them. For example, in the mid-2000s a local alliance in Salonica successfully resisted the granting of a concession to a major international port operator, in order to retain management of it themselves.

 Happy 2012? | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

This observation raises another, most disquieting, interpretation. Are the politicians captured by special interests?

A common thread of many decisions is that they aim at protecting banks. Clearly, no one wishes to see a banking collapse but if, as many believe, some deep bank restructuring is unavoidable, forbearance is highly counterproductive. The capture interpretation rests on a web of signals: the initial refusal of contemplating any sovereign debt restructuring, last summer’s row with the IMF Managing Director, pressure on the European Banking Authority to conduct gentle stress tests, and the negotiation of PSI with the world banking lobby leading to solutions that protect banks while providing little debt relief.

The ECB’s actions have been equally disquieting, raising all the same questions (understanding of the phenomenon, access to technical support, capture). The small-scale bond purchases of the SMP have repeatedly failed to quieten markets down. Tactically, the presence of the ECB in the market provides temporary relief. Yet, official statements that the latest intervention was a one-off have systematically undermined any strategic benefit that could be reaped. Most disturbing is continuous insistence on the primacy of the price stability objective, as well as concern with the transmission channels of monetary policy at a time when bond markets are in panic and the interbank market has stopped functioning. As he left the Executive Board, Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi has evoked “quasi-religious discussions” within the Eurosystem. This would confirm the impression that the central bank is not focused on hard-core economic analysis and would explain why it does not seem to learn from past mistakes either.

The only kind interpretation is that the ECB and some politicians shrewdly want to use the crisis to achieve lasting fiscal discipline throughout the Eurozone. One idea is that acute pain will teach a lesson to countries that have always thought little of fiscal discipline. A better one is that we need to go to the brink to make serious changes politically acceptable.

A Month In Spain That Didn’t Shake The World | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opinion

Simply put I think Spain’s centralised wage bargaining system can explain why Spain hasn’t had an internal devaluation and wage and price reduction of the kind Latvia, or even, Ireland had. Spain’s labour and product market structures are inflexible, and this is why the economy is having so much difficulty adjusting, and making the transition from a construction and consumer-demand driven economy to an export-driven one.

But this lack of labour market flexibility isn’t NOT the main reason competitiveness was lost before the start of the crisis. The reason competitiveness was lost was the availability of excessively cheap borrowing made available by Europe’s large and deep capital markets and cheap interest rates at the ECB. It was this massive and cheap liquidity which generated one of the largest property bubbles seen this century. The bubble created huge distortions (many of which have still to be unwound), and basically meant that it was too easy for everyone (workers and employers alike) to make money, so there was no pressure even on the employers themselves to address the fact they were paying increasing wages without getting increasing productivity. It was simply a “cool” time for everyone.

Jobless in Spain: What can be done about the insider-outsider divide | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists:

Spain has a lower public debt-to-GDP ratio than not only Italy, but also France, Germany, and the UK. So why is it threatened with another downgrade? This column points to the fundamental problem with Spain’s economy – the insider-outsider divide that has led to the highest unemployment rate in the Eurozone. It proposes a single open-ended contract for all workers – a difficult solution whose time has come.

The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Debt and Deleveraging

JOHN MAULDIN: Staring Into The Abyss

                 Problemas da Europa:

1. A growing number of its countries are insolvent or close to it. It is increasingly likely that the only way forward is for defaults of some type, to lessen the burden of debt to a level where it can be dealt with and that will allow the countries the possibility of growth, which is the only real answer to the problems they face.

2. Because of growing fears of multiple defaults (just Greece would be bad enough!) most of the banks in Europe are seen to be insolvent and in need of hundreds of billions of euros of new capital. The interbank market in Europe is in a shambles, and banks park their cash with the ECB, at a lower rate of return, as that is the only institution they trust. They clearly do not trust each other. As an aside, I heard from many sources while I was Hong Kong and Singapore, meeting with readers and friends, that European banks (especially French) are cutting back on their trade lending, which is making normal commerce more difficult. Didn't we just go through that in 2008?

3. The real problem in Europe is the massive trade imbalances between the peripheral countries and the so-called core countries. Without the ability to adjust currencies, those trade imbalances will render any debt solution moot, as a country cannot balance its budget while it runs a trade deficit and its citizens and businesses also deleverage. I have written about this arithmetic problem on numerous occasions. There must be balance or there must be a mechanism to achieve balance.

Astronomy Picture of the Day, 2012 January 27 - Uma supernova de há muito tempo atrás ..

Astronomy Picture of the Day

NGC 3239 and SN 2012A
Image Credit & Copyright: Adam Block , Mt. Lemmon SkyCenter, University of Arizona

Explanation: About 40,000 light-years across, pretty, irregular galaxy NGC 3239 lies near the center of this lovely field of galaxies in the galaxy rich constellation Leo. At a distance of only 25 million light-years it dominates the frame, sporting a peculiar arrangement of structures, young blue star clusters and star forming regions, suggesting that NGC 3239 (aka Arp 263) is the result of a galaxy merger. Appearing nearly on top of the pretty galaxy is a bright, spiky, foreground star, a nearby member of our own Milky Way galaxy almost directly along our line-of-sight to NGC 3239. Still, NGC 3239 is notable for hosting this year's first confirmed supernova, designated SN 2012A. It was discovered early this month by supernova hunters Bob Moore, Jack Newton, and Tim Puckett. Indicated in a cropped version of the wider image, SN 2012A is just below and right of the bright foreground star. Of course, based on the light-travel time to NGC 3239, the supernova explosion itself occurred 25 million years ago, triggered by the core collapse of a massive star.

Anomalias

Arctic Temperatures Continue Rapid Rise as 2011 Breaks Record Set in 2010 | ThinkProgress

Record Ice Loss and Tundra Melt Amplify Warming Feedbacks

NASA just (19 January 2012) released data showing that last year temperatures in the Arctic rose beyond the record established in 2010 — setting a new record for 2011. News of the record Arctic temperatures follows a series of alarming developments related to the Arctic in recent months.

The surface temperature anomaly for the region extending from 64N to 90N, from 1880 through 2011, in degrees Centigrade above or below the temperature during the 1951-1980 base period. Temperatures have risen substantially since 1880 and the rate of increase has been especially rapid since the late 1970s. Source: WWF, using data from NASA.

Astronomy Picture of the Day, 2012 January 22 - Polo Norte de Saturno, um local estranho ...

Astronomy Picture of the Day

Saturn's Hexagon Comes to Light
Image Credit: Cassini Imaging Team, SSI, JPL, ESA, NASA

Explanation: Believe it or not, this is the North Pole of Saturn. It is unclear how an unusual hexagonal cloud system that surrounds Saturn's north pole was created, keeps its shape, or how long it will last. Originally discovered during the Voyager flybys of Saturn in the 1980s, nobody has ever seen anything like it elsewhere in the Solar System. Although its infrared glow was visible previously to the Cassini spacecraft now orbiting Saturn, in 2009 the mysterious hexagonal vortex became fully illuminated by sunlight for the first time during the Cassini's visit. Since then, Cassini has imaged the rotating hexagon in visible light enough times to create a time-lapse movie. The pole center was not well imaged and has been excluded. This movie shows many unexpected cloud motions, such as waves emanating from the corners of the hexagon. Planetary scientists are sure to continue to study this most unusual cloud formation for quite some time. 

O ridículo do pastel de nata

O ridículo do pastel de nata não está no que o ministro disso a propósito, mas no ridículo que querem imputar ao que disse e na dimensão que lhe deram. A preocupação que se deve ter com o episódio é com aquilo que o episódio parece sugerir sobre  nós próprios.

O que o ministro disse é simples: o pastel é um recurso nacional (cultural, gastronómico), tal como a cortiça, as sardinhas enlatadas, o vinho de porto, e coisas quejandas, de qualidade comprovada e de fácil penetração em tudo o que é sítio, e que deve ser utilizado como aqueles para os devidos efeitos, a nível internacional  – um dos efeitos (admitá-mo-lo: trivial e economicista)  é gerar rendimento que possibilite o país financiar as compras (entre quais o novo carro, o novo portátil, a viagem a Cuba, as aparelhagens para o SNS, etc, etc.) que fazemos ao estrangeiro, sem aumentar o endividamento externo galopante que se verificou na última década  e que se constitui como a grande determinante do sarilho em que estamos metidos.  Elementar .

O ministro não referiu que a solução dos problemas nacionais está no pastel (ou na sua mera exportação, embora alguns o façam com sucesso, o que só reforça o argumento), mas disse implicitamente, que a solução passa, também, pelo erradicar da atitude que leva a que o país económico não aproveite as boas oportunidades de negócio específicas de que dispõe. O ministro o que quiz dizer é  que não não devemos, não nos podemos dar o luxo de desprezar nem o pastel de nata, nem os outros pastéis (em sentido estrito, enfatizo eu, porque  a doçaria nacional, resultado de termos sidos os primeiros grandes produtores da droga açúcar, é riquíssima – olhem, que belo exemplo, foi com ela que financiamos a gloriosa expansão no Atlântico de quatrocentos – e atrás do pastel de nata poderia marchar toda aquela) nem quaisquer outros produtos portugueses. O ministro poderia ter acrescentado, numa linha de intervenção pedagógica, que na área das exportações, se aplica o ditado da galinha encher o papo, grão a grão, e ter frisado que estava espantado pelo facto de alguém não ter feito com o pastel luso aquilo que os dinamarqueses fizeram com o queijo grego Feta. É óbvio que o ministro não tem a tarimba política dos useiros da política portuguesa – nenhum deles diria semelhante coisa; o ministro é naif; é um estrangeirado e não tem dignitas.

O desprezo de muita da elite portuguesa sobre os estrangeirados e as questões do pastel é um desprezo fidalgo, pré-revolução industrial, muito Ancien Régime, muito anti-economicista, alimentada pelo desconhecimento do país (nisso o Pacheco Pereira tem toda a razão), por todo o tipo de iliteracias, e pelo preconceito contra a possibilidade do que é português e bom, simplesmente por ser modesto, não passar lá fora e poder mesmo envergonharmo-nos – mais um afloramento da mania das grandezas e o do que é próprio  (leia-se Os Fidalgos da Casa Mourisca, para começar). É por isso que quando falam do regresso à terra, ou o regresso ao mar, não sabem do que estão a falar, não que esse propósito não seja correcto, mas porque não tem qualquer ideia do que isso exige para ser eficaz (ah, também, eficiente).

E o que é mais interessante, tendo em atenção que grande parte dessa elite é de esquerda,  é que à volta do problema do pastel se poderia articular mais um contributo para a narrativa (em grande parte correcta) do grande capital em Portugal só estar interessado na produção de bens não-transacionáveis, em sectores de acesso condicionado ao apadrinhamento do Estado, e na distribuição, na medida em que, apesar desse grande capital dispor dos meios para o efeito, deixar de lado, contra toda a racionalidade económica, oportunidades de negócio como lançarem, ou promover o lançamento, à escala global um bom franchising do pastel, do café, etc. (um Starbucks luso, como já existe um McDonal's do frango do churrasco - que nos valham os emigrantes, portugueses sem pretensões, que limitam-se a vender aquilo que vende). O desprezo subjectivo (e objectivo) manifestado quanto ao pastel é mais um  indicador da fragilidade e falta de profundidade do capitalismo luso, mas ao mesmo tempo, de grande parte da esquerda, que não conhece o seu país, o mundo em que vive, e que, nem, ao menos, leu algumas coisas ...

Aliás, recuperando a polémica sobre o patriotismo do grupo Jerónimo Martins, para mim a grande questão nunca foi a transferência do domicílio fiscal para o Holanda, mas saber se a sua  internacionalização induziu um aumento interessante da exportação de produtos portugueses, e obviamente, já agora, se ocorreu ao grupo pôr os polacos a comer o pastel, entre outras coisas. Se assim não aconteceu, ou não são bons gestores, ou não valorizam o que o país tem e não são patriotas, o que, convenhamos, vai dar tudo no mesmo: Q.E.D.

Enquanto isso (não que isto não seja importante também) ...

NASA Finds 2011 is Ninth-Warmest Year on Record

While average global temperature will still fluctuate from year to year, scientists focus on the decadal trend. Nine of the 10 warmest years since 1880 have occurred since the year 2000, as the Earth has experienced sustained higher temperatures than in any decade during the 20th century. As greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, scientists expect the long-term temperature increase to continue as well. (Data source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory, Robert Simmon)

 

Depois de ouvir o Pacheco Pereira comentar o momento político, hoje, na TVI 24, sou da opinião que o PS deveria-o convidar para Secretário-Geral!

Astronomy Picture of the Day, 2012 January 5 - Titã e Dione face aos anéis de Saturno

Astronomy Picture of the Day

Ringside with Titan and Dione
Credit : Cassini Imaging Team , SSI, JPL, ESA, NASA

Explanation: Orbiting in the plane of Saturn's rings, Saturnian moons have a perpetual ringside view of the gorgeous gas giant planet. Of course, while passing near the ring plane the Cassini spacecraft also shares their stunning perspective. The rings themselves can be seen slicing across the middle of this Cassini snapshot from May of last year. The scene features Titan, largest, and Dione, third largest moon of Saturn. Remarkably thin, the bright rings still cast arcing shadows across the planet's cloud tops at the bottom of the frame. Pale Dione is about 1,100 kilometers across and orbits over 300,000 kilometers from the visible outer edge of the A ring. Dione is seen through Titan's atmospheric haze. At 5,150 kilometers across, Titan is about 2.3 million kilometers from Cassini, while Dione is 3.2 million kilometers away.

Pois é ...

Daily chart: Growth in 2012 | The Economist

Energia solar na Alemanha: evolução

German Solar Output Increases by 60% in 2011 | ThinkProgress

Just weeks after the solar industry installed the one millionth system in Germany, the country’s solar trade association announced that the technology accounted for 3% of total energy generation in 2011 — increasing 60% over 2010 to 18.6 terawatt-hours (18.6 billion kilowatt-hours.)

Even with changes to the feed-in tariff that have reduced solar photovoltaic installations compared with previous boom years, the sector was still the fastest growing among all other renewable energy sectors in 2011, according to preliminary figures.

This follows data released last week showing that renewable energy accounted for 19.9 percent of electricity production in the country this year, growing 16.4 percent over 2010. Meanwhile, overall energy use in the country fell 4.8% due to warmer temperatures and increasing efficiency efforts, further boosting the value of solar generation.

Previsões - as mais convincentes que li até ao momento

BBC News - Three big questions for the eurozone

In a normal year predicting economics is like predicting the outcome of a card game: there are too many variables and the only certainty being that the suckers will lose and the stealthily self-interested will win. In 2012 however, the shape of the crisis is heavily predetermined: there are a series of crucial stages the eurocrisis has to go through and the way they're resolved will affect everything else. Starting from where we are now, there are three big questions:

• Is the ECB's unofficial money printing operation - a massively expanded bond-buying venture combined with unlimited provision of cash by global central banks - going to be enough to prevent a second credit crunch, centred on Italy?
• Does Greece spiral finally into default, social crisis and chaos, raising the prospect of the near-dictatorial economic policies needed if you have to exit the Euro?
• Do the French banks take so many losses on the sovereign debt of southern Europe that they have to be part nationalised, thus removing the country's AAA credit rating and the all-important financial parity between Germany and France that lies at the heart of the European system?

Right now my answers to these questions would be yes, yes and yes. [e continua ...]