Surpresas...

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground: "The unnamed South Atlantic tropical/subtropical cyclone (90Q) off the coast of Brazil continues to spin slowly out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm, just the 7th tropical or subtropical cyclone on record in the South Atlantic, 

Morning visible satellite image of the Brazilian unnamed tropical/subtropical storm

[...] When compared to similar systems that have developed in the North Atlantic that have been named, I definitely think today's storm deserves a name. [...] South Atlantic tropical storm history Brazil has had only one landfalling tropical cyclone in its history, Cyclone Catarina of March 2004. Catarina is one of only six known tropical or subtropical cyclones to form in the South Atlantic, and the only one to reach hurricane strength. Today's storm is probably the fourth strongest tropical/subtropical storm on record in the South Atlantic, behind Hurricane Catarina and an unnamed February 2006 storm that may have attained wind speeds of 65 mph, and a subtropical storm that brought heavy flooding to the coast of Uruguay in January 2009.. 

Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean, due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms). Today's storm is located close to where Catarina formed. Climate change and South Atlantic storms It is uncertain whether climate change may cause an increase in South Atlantic tropical storms in the future. While today's storm formed over waters that were about 1°C above average in temperature, Catarina in 2004 formed over waters that were 0.5°C cooler than average. Sea surface temperature is not the main limiting factor inhibiting these storms, wind shear is. How climate change might change wind shear over South America has not been well-studied."

E continua ... posições, mais posições, metano, e a Terra - é bom não esquecê-lo - é redonda

Posições:

• Texas climate scientists: On global warming, the science is solid « Climate Progress: "Recent events 'do not alter the conclusions that humans have taken over from nature as the dominant influence on our climate'"

• RealClimate: A mistaken message from IoP?: "The Institute of Physics (IoP) recently made a splash in the media through a statement about the implications of the e-mails stolen in the CRU hack. A couple of articles in the Guardian report how this statement was submitted to an inquiry into the CRU hack and provide some background." 

• Robert Watson: “There is no doubt that the evidence for human-induced climate change is irrefutable.” « Climate Progress: "Former chair says IPCC must acknowledge mistakes and 'consider shorter reports focused on the key issues,' but 'In many cases, the IPCC is very conservative in its statements, e.g., the projections of sea level rise.'"

Como a ciência se defende, ou porque razão as pessoas pensam como pensam (ver aqui, também):

• Should Scientists Fight Heat or Stick to Data? - Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com: "Some leading lights in environmental science have been pushing their colleagues, and institutions like the National Academies, to come out swinging against the ongoing barrage of assaults from organized opponents of restrictions on greenhouse gases and climate skeptics/contrarians/denialists/realists (pick your label depending on your worldview). The debate over a climate communications strategy was disclosed when a string of e-mail messages was leaked to the Washington Times and Greenwire (the Greenwire story was also published online by The New York Times). Here’s one of the most trenchant comments, not surprisingly from Paul Ehrlich, a battle-hardened veteran of such fights: Most of our colleagues don’t seem to grasp that we’re not in a gentlepersons’ debate, we’re in a street fight against well-funded, merciless enemies who play by entirely different rules."

• Debate the controversy! « Climate Progress: "The serial misinformers and misrepresenters demand equal time for their misinformation and misrepresentations. What should climate science defenders and the media do?"

• The trouble with trusting complex science | George Monbiot | Comment is free | The Guardian: "The attack on climate scientists is now widening to an all-out war on science. Writing recently for the Telegraph, the columnist Gerald Warner dismissed scientists as 'white-coated prima donnas and narcissists … pointy-heads in lab coats [who] have reassumed the role of mad cranks … The public is no longer in awe of scientists. Like squabbling evangelical churches in the 19th century, they can form as many schismatic sects as they like, nobody is listening to them any more.'"

Qualificações sobre o perigo do metano:

• New observations find underwater Arctic Shelf is perforated and venting methane|Skeptical Science: "One of the positive feedbacks from global warming is the thawing of Arctic permafrost. This releases methane, a greenhouse gas over 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere. Investigations into Arctic methane have tended to focus on land permafrost. However, there are also vast amounts of methane held underwater in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). This encompasses over 2 million square kilometres, three times as large as the nearby Siberian wetlands, which have been considered the primary Northern Hemisphere source of atmospheric methane. Underwater permafrost acts as a lid to restrain methane stored in the seabed. Until now, it was thought the permafrost was cold enough to remain frozen. However, recent observations have found that over 80% of the deep water over the ESAS is supersaturated, with methane levels more than eight times that of normal seawater (Shakhova 2010). More than half of the surface water is supersaturated also. The methane venting into the atmosphere from this one region is comparable to the amount of methane coming out of the entire world’s oceans."

• RealClimate: Arctic Methane on the Move?: "Methane is like the radical wing of the carbon cycle, in today’s atmosphere a stronger greenhouse gas per molecule than CO2, and an atmospheric concentration that can change more quickly than CO2 can. There has been a lot of press coverage of a new paper in Science this week called “Extensive methane venting to the atmosphere from sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf”, which comes on the heels of a handful of interrelated methane papers in the last year or so. Is now the time to get frightened? No. CO2 is plenty to be frightened of, while methane is frosting on the cake. Imagine you are in a Toyota on the highway at 60 miles per hour approaching stopped traffic, and you find that the brake pedal is broken. This is CO2. Then you figure out that the accelerator has also jammed, so that by the time you hit the truck in front of you, you will be going 90 miles per hour instead of 60. This is methane. Is now the time to get worried? No, you should already have been worried by the broken brake pedal. Methane sells newspapers, but it’s not the big story, nor does it look to be a game changer to the big story, which is CO2."

• The ‘Real’ Take on Methane and Warming - Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com: "With a valuable reality check on Arctic methane in the climate context, Realclimate.org (in this case David Archer) illustrates the value of having scientists step into the uncomfortable, but unavoidable, arena of direct public communication. In the post, Dr. Archer, who has tested his chops with a couple of books for general audiences (I forgive him for recycling “ Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast,” the title of my 1992 book on climate ;-) , tries out a nice analogy relating carbon dioxide and methane emissions to various troubles that can endanger a driver"

Anomalias, ou de como, nomeadamente, alguns dos "opinion makers" portugueses se esqueceram que a Terra é redonda (existe - estou a ser pedagógico - o hemisfério norte, e o hemisfério sul, e quando está frio em Conpenhaga, faz calor, e de que maneira, na Austrália):

• Australia: But we're warming to current idea|Climate Ark

Para perceber o tempo pelas nossas bandas...

 

"Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes were at their highest February level on record last month, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. The region between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America, is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)" 

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

E continua... opiniões, economistas, evidências, apresentação da ciência e ciência

Opiniões versus outras opiniões:

• Iceberg ahead|Climate Ark  versus Newsweek staff who play fast and loose with the facts are imperiling not just their profession but the planet. « Climate Progress

• ambio: Clima e ciência - a perspectiva da Economist sobre o Climate gate  e The Economist embraces climate media-ocrity with one inane paragraph « Climate Progress»

• My response to Dr. Judith Curry’s unconstructive essay « Climate Progress» 

• WashPost editorial: “If current trends persist, it’s likely that in coming decades the globe’s climate will change with potentially devastating effects for billions of people.” « Climate Progress»

Economistas e consequências:

• The price of environmental destruction? There is none|Climate Ark  

• Economist's View: "A Small Price for a Large Benefit"

• Climate sceptics are recycled critics of controls on tobacco and acid rain | Jeffrey Sachs | Environment | guardian.co.uk: "We must not be distracted from science's urgent message: we are fuelling dangerous changes in Earth's climate"

Evidências:

• Canada's permafrost retreats amid warming trend|Climate Ark   e Arctic Permafrost has Retreated 80 Miles in 50 Years| ecogeek.org  

• Climate change melts Antarctic ice shelves - USGS e USGS reports dramatic retreat of ice shelves in southern Antarctic Peninsula « Climate Progress»

Clima e tempo:

• Snow « Open Mind»

Sobre a apresentação da ciência do clima:

• RealClimate: The Guardian disappoints: "Part 1 of a series discussing the recent Guardian articles: Over the last few weeks or so the UK Guardian (who occasionally reprint our posts) has published a 12-part series about the stolen CRU emails by Fred Pearce that are well below the normal Guardian standards of reporting. We delineate some of the errors and misrepresentations below. ."

• RealClimate: Close Encounters of the Absurd Kind: "Part 2 of a series discussing the recent Guardian articles: Guest commentary from Ben Santer.

• Scientists withdraw low-ball estimate of sea level rise — media are confused and anti-science crowd pounces « Climate Progress»

• The IPCC lowballs likely impacts with its instantly out-of-date reports and is clearly clueless on messaging — should it be booted or just rebooted? « Climate Progress»

• Despite Climategate, IPPC Mostly Underestimates Climate Change|Climate Ark  

Ciência:

• Have American Thinker disproven global warming?: "American Thinker have published an article The AGW Smoking Gun by Gary Thompson who claims to disprove a key component of anthropogenic global warming. The article begins by stating '...it seems that the only way to disprove the AGW hypothesis is to address problems with the science'. This is a fair statement and a return to an emphasis on science in the climate debate is most welcome. So have American Thinker discovered a flaw in climate science that has escaped the attention of the world's climate scientists? Let's examine Thompson's article to find out."

É mais uma observação pessoal que, possivelmente, não quer dizer nada, mas que deixou o autor da nota curioso

 

Tirado de  David Hone - Climate Change Advisor for Shell » Blog Archive » No ice.Leiam a nota que tem algum interesse.

E continua .... Obama explica as diferenças entre clima e tempo

Obama sabe a diferença entre clima e tempo, conhecimento não dominado por alguns, e notabilíssimos, "opinion makers" portugueses. Vejam o vídeo, e leiam a nota do Climate Progress.

President Obama explains the science behind climate change and extreme weather - «Climate Progress»

E continua... Opiniões, factos e ciência

Opiniões: 

• Bill Gates is wrong about “energy miracles” « Climate Progress: Diz Bill Gates "Now the exact amount of how you map from a certain increase in CO2 to what temperature will be and where the positive feedbacks are, there’s some uncertainty there — but not very much. And there’s certainly uncertainty about how bad the effects will be, but they will be extremely bad.“"  

• The Dunning-Kruger effect and the climate debate: "One of the best titles for a scientific paper has to be the Ig Nobel prize winning 'Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments'. The paper compares people's skill levels to their own assessment of their abilities. In hindsight, the result seems self-evident. Unskilled people lack the skill to rate their own level of competence. This leads to the unfortunate result that unskilled people rate themselves higher than more competent people. The phenonemon is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, named after the paper's authors, and is often seen in the climate debate. There are many with a cursory understanding who believe they're discovered fundamental flaws in climate science that have somehow been overlooked or ignored by climate scientists. Some take this a step further and believe they're being deceived."

• A Historian Looks ‘Back’ at the Climate Fight - Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com: "Dr. Weart, himself a physicist, said he had just finished reviewing a draft of a social history of 20th-century physics and was inspired to muse on what a historian in 2210, writing a survey of science in the 21st century, might say in the chapter on climate"

• Jeff Masters sets the record straight on Dana Milbank’s column « Climate Progress

Factos:

• Record high temperatures far outpace record lows across U.S. « Climate Progress

• Washington's snowstorms, brought to you by global warming - washingtonpost.com: "Ripton Vermont: You want to hear my winter weather story? No, really, I know you do. The cross-country ski race I've been training for, set for today high in the Green Mountains: cancelled, lack of snow. Meanwhile, across the continent, backhoes and helicopters are moving snow down British Columbia's Cypress Mountain in an attempt to cover the Olympic ski courses, and technicians are burying cooling pipes beneath the moguls to keep them from melting. Some climate-conscious jokers put out a video pushing the sport of 'bobwheeling' for future snow-challenged Olympiads. And apparently there was some snowfall in the greater Washington area last week."

• Sea caves reveal rapid rise in ancient ocean levels

Ciência:

• RealClimate: IPCC errors: facts and spin

• Launching the Climate Science Project (with your help) - Part 1: Why increasing CO2 is a significant problem Climate Progress

E contínua ... e em síntese temos o que se pode ver abaixo

Climate Crock video on cold snap vs. global warming « Climate Progress

Clima versus Tempo

Conforme o prometido, um conjunto de referências sobre a diferença entre clima e tempo. Começa com uma nota da Ambio, a definir a questão, e uma transcrição de uma frase de um artigo respigado pela Climate Ark (vale só pela piada que tem); a referência à ciência que interpreta o tempo frio, do Guardian, não se enquadra no tópico da nota, mas como convém ir lembrando, passo a passo, o que se passa, longe da nossa porta, aí fica; a nota do Wired Science tem de ser lida, como a última do Ambio que aborda a temática da validade dos modelos climáticos, relevante para este tópico:

• ambio: Meteorologia e clima: "Meteorologia é a ciência que estuda os meteoros, isto é, os fenómenos da atmosfera. A sua mais conhecida aplicação prática é a previsão do tempo, em diferentes escalas, mas sobretudo em pequenos períodos de tempos. Na realidade as previsões a mais de três dias, embora tenham sofrido progressos notáveis, são ainda relativamente pouco fiáveis. O clima estuda o padrão das variações meteorológicas, ou seja, avalia estatístiscamente os elementos meteorológicos num período suficientemente grande para permitir avaliar padrões para lá da elevada variação meteorológica de curto prazo. O período considerado mínimo para a análise climática são trinta anos, sendo a média das observações ao longo de trinta anos que define a normal climatológica."  
• United Kingdom: If I hear another global warming joke, I'll . . | Climate Ark.: "United Kingdom: If I hear another global warming joke, I'll . . . . . . go completely insane. Climate change doesn’t mean we’ll have lots of lovely weather all the time, you numbskulls" 
• Britain's cold snap does not prove climate science wrong | Leo Hickman and George Monbiot | Environment | guardian.co.uk: [...]  The ability to distinguish trends from complex random events is one of the traits that separates humans from the rest of the animal kingdom. It is also the basis of all science; detecting patterns, distinguishing between signal and noise, and the means by which the laws of physics, chemistry and biology are determined. Now we are being asked to commit ourselves to the wilful stupidity of extrapolating a long-term trend from a single event." 
• The science behind the cold weather | UK news | The Guardian: "Although it may be hard to believe, many parts of the northern hemisphere are considerably warmer than usual at the moment. Alaska and much of northern Canada is unseasonably warm for instance, with temperatures 5C to 10C warmer than expected. That still leaves the air a biting –30C (–22F) or so though. Hardly a barbecue winter. North Africa and the Mediterranean basin are warmer than average also, by up to 10C. Elsewhere, such as across northern Europe, temperatures are coming in 5C or so colder than average." 
• It's freaking cold !Skeptical Science: [...] What the science says... Since the mid 1970s, global temperatures have been warming at around 0.2°C per decade. However, weather imposes it's own dramatic ups and downs over the long term trend. We expect to see record cold temperatures even during global warming. Nevertheless over the last decade, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows. This tendency towards hotter days is expected to increase as global warming continues into the 21st Century.  [...] I 
• Looks like I’m going on FoxNews today because it’s cold outside « Climate Progress: "You can’t deny it’s cold outside in Washington, DC today — any more than you can deny the planet is unequivocally warming and humans are probably the cause of most of that warming, can you? I mean, the fact that it’s cold in early January isn’t news. It’s the friggin’ winter! Oh wait, you say we’re setting records for cold over parts of the country. But if you accept the temperature station data going back over a century that says we’re setting records for cold over a small part of the globe over a short period of time, then you have to accept this very same data over the entire globe over a long period of time, no?"

• Wired Science . Correlations | PBS: "We climate scientists often hear the case made 'If you can't predict the weather next week, how could you predict the climate in a hundred years?' The answer to the question is hidden in the question. The weather and the climate are not exactly the same thing, and so what you can say about the one and what you can say about the other are also different."  
• Bad Statistical Reasoning about Weather and Climate : Good Math, Bad Math  Wow, look how hot it is today! How can anyone possible deny global warming? Wow, look how cold it is today! How can those idiots believe in global warming?  These are both examples of confusing weather with climate. That confusion is a typical example of a common statistical error: using aggregate data to draw conclusions about specific individuals, or using a single individual to draw conclusions about an aggregate. Individual data points and aggregates are very different things, and you can't just arbitrarily go from one to another.

• Was the “Blizzard of 2009″ a “global warming type” of record snowfall — or an opportunity for the media to blow the extreme weather story (again)? « Climate Progress  
• ambio: Sobre a impossibilidade de validar modelos em ciências ambientais: "Todos os anos, após um episódio frio ou chuvoso, ouvem-se vozes irónicas sobre a teoria do aquecimento global e suas causas [...]" 

PS (14.01.10): Já lá vai o tempo em The Economist estava do outro lado da barricada nas questões das alterações climáticas. Este artigo mereceria ser lido pelo Nicolau Santos, do Expresso, e pelo Professor José Medeiros Ferreira (ver aqui): Green.view: Oscilloscope | The Economist.