Declaração importante como o caraças: eu escrevo de acordo com o novo acordo ortográfico....

Já me tinha debruçado sobre o acordo ortográfico (ver aqui).

O artigo do Expresso, que transcrevo abaixo, vem confirmar a desconfiança que tenho sobre a relevância, ou o enviesamento do assunto.O facto de não gostar da pinta do novo presidente do CCB - eu sei, eu sei da qualidade intelectual do senhor, dos poemas, das traduções... -, e do modo que substituiu o anterior, não têm nada a ver com esta minha posição. Não percebo nada do assunto, mas fui influenciado de modo determinante por um livro velho que o meu pai tinha na sua biblioteca - publicado por volta do início da segunda década do século XX - onde se discutia a polémica do, à altura, novo acordo ortográfico (como relato na outra nota). A pepineira do tratamento dado à matéria, que tem paralelo com o que se passa agora, vacinou-me para sempre sobre a importância a dar à questão. 

Na linha das declarações de muita gente, venho frisar que eu, a contrário, sigo o novo acordo ortográfico; e que se por acaso, naquilo que escrevo aparecer a grafia anterior é porque estou a cometer um erro de ortografia, ou porque estou a confundir a grafia barsileira com a portuguesa definidas pelo novo acordo: exemplo, facto continua a escrever-se facto e outras coisas quejandas...

Link: http://aeiou.expresso.pt/o-acordo-20-anos-depois=f706306 (via shareaholic.com)

Dedicado a Vasco Graça Moura e a todos os opositores do Acordo Ortográfico

A minha adesão pessoal ao Acordo Ortográfico (AO) tem a ver simultaneamente com confiança e humildade. Confio na sabedoria de quem o fez (não na sua infalibilidade) e sou suficientemente humilde para reconhecer que muitos aspetos que dizem respeito à etimologia e à fonética, tais como outros menos relevantes para este caso, me escapam. Além da confiança e respeito por nomes como Lindley Cintra ou António Houaiss, de que não vejo muita gente comungar, mas antes desprezar, dediquei eu próprio algum tempo ao assunto. E, uma vez que faço da escrita a minha profissão há mais de 30 anos, penso ter algo a dizer. 

Rodrigues Lapa, que foi um mestre da língua portuguesa, filólogo distinto, sustinha que as mudanças de ortografia eram sempre violentas. Esta asserção é hoje inteiramente justificada pela quantidade de pessoas que apenas se opõem ao Acordo 'porque sim' - sem quaisquer argumentos. 

A verdade é que ninguém se conforma, depois de ter sido obrigado a pôr um p em ótimo, agora lhe dizerem que afinal esse p (no qual nunca encontrou utilidade) não faz falta. Há quem argumente com esse pai tirano, o latim, e com a etimologia da palavra optimus. A palavra sem o p perderá a identidade. Alguns enxofram-se e dizem que lhes matamos o português! Mas qual português, Santo Deus (ou melhor diria Sancto Deus?). O português do assucar ou do açúcar? O de Viseu ou Vizeu? 

Dêem à Grécia uma oportunidade

[UPDATED] Greek businesses make well-timed plea | Brussels blog | News on the European Union from the Financial Times – FT.com

Anomalias

NASA: Earth Is Losing Half A Trillion Tons Of Ice A Year | ThinkProgress

Global Ice Loss from 2003-2010 Could “Cover the Entire United States in One and Half Feet of Water”

Changes in ice thickness (in centimeters per year) during 2003-2010 as measured by NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, averaged over each of the world’s ice caps and glacier systems outside of Greenland and Antarctica. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Colorado

O combate político do nosso tempo é este, mas anda tudo distraído, mesmo aqueles a quem o que se segue parece confirmar as suas percepções (estou a ser claro, não estou?)

We need to know who funds these thinktank lobbyists | George Monbiot | Comment is free | The Guardian

Shocking, fascinating, entirely unsurprising: the leaked documents, if authentic, confirm what we suspected but could not prove. The Heartland Institute, which has helped lead the war against climate science in the United States, is funded among others by tobacco firms, fossil fuel companies and one of the billionaire Koch brothers.

It appears to have followed the script written by a consultant to the Republican party, Frank Luntz, in 2002. "Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate."Luntz's technique was pioneered by the tobacco companies and the creationists: teach the controversy. In other words, insist that the question of whether cigarettes cause lung cancer, natural selection drives evolution, or burning fossil fuels causes climate change, is still wide open, and that both sides of the "controversy" should be taught in schools and thrashed out in the media.

The leaked documents appear to show that, courtesy of its multimillionaire donors, the institute has commissioned a global warming curriculum for schools which teaches that "whether humans are changing the climate is a major scientific controversy" and "whether CO₂ is a pollutant is controversial".

É sobre o Irão, ou de como os EUA não aprenderam nada com o Iraque, ou uma questão de "plain and simple lunacy"

Congress Pushes Iran Regime Change Over Diplomacy « naked capitalism

Retirado, sem comentário, de uma nota sobre a situação actual da economia checa ...

Quick Reality Czech | A Fistful Of Euros: [....] Others explain the phenomenon culturally – the Czech’s are a nation of savers, unlike the Estonians whose reckless spending lead them into a housing boom/bust (do note the irony, please).

Sylvie Pekarova, a 33-year-old pharmaceutical researcher in Prague, has no debt. She doesn’t even own a credit card.

Consumers like Pekarova have helped the Czech Republic avoid the fate of the euro region, which is grappling with a debt crisis now into its third year. With private borrowing at half the euro region’s average, the country now boasts interest rates that are lower than 10 of the currency-bloc’s 17 members. That’s helping the government’s drive to sell benchmark Eurobonds, which started this week.

“It’s this feeling that if something goes wrong, you don’t want to be stuck with debts you don’t know how to pay back,” Pekarova, who lives in a rented apartment in central Prague, said in an interview. “Borrowing money for things like going on a holiday doesn’t make sense.”

[....]

Mercúrio

More “Hollowed Ground” on Mercury Universe Today

Bright Peaks, Dark Shadows Universe Today

MESSENGER's latest NAC image of curious "hollows" surrounding a crater peak

MESSENGER image of Mercury's Amaral crater

Santorum é um dos candidatos à presidência dos EUA, e têm hipóteses sérias de ser nomeado o candidato do partido republicano - vejam o que diz, e como o diz!!

Rick Santorum Declares Jihad on Atheists, Agnostics, Presbyterians, Buddhists, Muslims, Wiccans, Members of the Dutch Reformed Church, Congregationalists, Asatru, Mithraists, and Lutherans!

Santorum: Satan is Systematically Destroying America: Rick Santorum traveled to Ave Maria University in Florida to deliver an address…. Santorum told the students at Ave Maria how lucky they were to be living in a time when God's Army is more needed than ever because all of the major institutions in society were under attack by Satan….Santorum began his remarks by explaining to the students in attendance how every institution in America has been destroyed by Satan; from academia to politics with even the church having fallen under His sway - not the Catholic church, of course, but "mainline Protestantism" which is in such "shambles" that it is not even Christian any longer:

This is not a political war at all. This is not a cultural war. This is a spiritual war. And the Father of Lies has his sights on what you would think the Father of Lies would have his sights on: a good, decent, powerful, influential country - the United States of America. If you were Satan, who would you attack in this day and age? There is no one else to go after other than the United States and that has been the case now for almost two hundred years, once America's preeminence was sown by our great Founding Fathers…. The place where he was, in my mind, the most successful and first successful was in academia. He understood pride of smart people. He attacked them at their weakest, that they were, in fact, smarter than everybody else and could come up with something new and different. Pursue new truths, deny the existence of truth, play with it because they're smart. And so academia, a long time ago, fell…. [O]once the colleges fell and those who were being education in our institutions, the next was the church. Now you’d say, ‘wait, the Catholic Church’? No. We all know that this country was founded on a Judeo-Christian ethic but the Judeo-Christian ethic was a Protestant Judeo-Christian ethic, sure the Catholics had some influence, but this was a Protestant country and the Protestant ethic, mainstream, mainline Protestantism, and of course we look at the shape of mainline Protestantism in this country and it is in shambles, it is gone from the world of Christianity….

Eta Carinae: ecos da luz da erupção

The color image at left shows the Carina Nebula, a star-forming region located 7,500 light-years from Earth. The massive double-star system Eta Carinae resides near the top of the image. The star system, about 120 times more massive than the Sun, produced a spectacular outburst that was seen on Earth from 1837 to 1858. The three black-and-white images at right show light from the eruption illuminating dust clouds near the doomed star system as it moves through them. The effect is like shining a flashlight on different regions of a vast cavern. The images were taken over an eight-year span by the U.S. National Optical Astronomy Observatory's Blanco 4-meter telescope at the CTIO. Credit: NASA, NOAO, and A. Rest (Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, Md.)

Light Echoes: The Re-Run Of The Eta Carinae “Great Eruption" Universe Today

Anomalias

"Fears of British Super-Drought After Record Low Rainfall in Winter," UK Guardian Reports | ThinkProgress

Some brutal droughts are raging around the world.  The one in Texas has, naturally, been receiving most of the attention in this country (see Warming-Enhanced Texas Drought Is Once in “500 or 1,000 Years … Basically Off the Charts,” Says State Climatologist).  Later in the week I’ll blog about the ones hitting Mexico and South America. But Britain is clearly also being hit by one for the record books, as the UK Guardian reports: [continua]

Astronomy Picture of the Day, 2012 February 15 - Reflexões

Astronomy Picture of the Day

Merope's Reflection Nebula
Image Credit & Copyright: Leonardo Orazi

Explanation: Reflection nebulas reflect light from a nearby star. Many small carbon grains in the nebula reflect the light. The blue color typical of reflection nebula is caused by blue light being more efficiently scattered by the carbon dust than red light. The brightness of the nebula is determined by the size and density of the reflecting grains, and by the color and brightness of the neighboring star(s). NGC 1435, pictured above, surrounds Merope (23 Tau), one of the brightest stars in the Pleiades (M45). The Pleiades nebulosity is caused by a chance encounter between an open cluster of stars and a dusty molecular cloud.

Astronomy Picture of the Day, 2012 February 12 - Orion, gás, poeira e estrelas

Astronomy Picture of the Day

Orion in Gas, Dust, and Stars
Image Credit & Copyright: Rogelio Bernal Andreo (Deep Sky Colors)

Explanation: The constellation of Orion holds much more than three stars in a row. A deep exposure shows everything from dark nebula to star clusters, all embedded in an extended patch of gaseous wisps in the greater Orion Molecular Cloud Complex. The brightest three stars on the far left are indeed the famous three stars that make up the belt of Orion. Just below Alnitak, the lowest of the three belt stars, is the Flame Nebula, glowing with excited hydrogen gas and immersed in filaments of dark brown dust. Below the frame center and just to the right of Alnitak lies the Horsehead Nebula, a dark indentation of dense dust that has perhaps the most recognized nebular shapes on the sky. On the upper right lies M42, the Orion Nebula, an energetic caldron of tumultuous gas, visible to the unaided eye, that is giving birth to a new open cluster of stars. Immediately to the left of M42 is a prominent bluish reflection nebula sometimes called the Running Man that houses many bright blue stars. The above image, a digitally stitched composite taken over several nights, covers an area with objects that are roughly 1,500 light years away and spans about 75 light years. 

Mark Twain: "A história não se repete, mas rima por vezes"

A validade do epigrama de Mark Twain é confirmada, mais uma vez, e agora, pela relevância do que U.S.Grant dizia sobre as causas da Guerra Civil Norte-Americana para a compreensão dos EUA dos nossos dias:

Brad DeLong: Quote of the Day: February 9, 2012

Quote of the Day: February 9, 2012

"Demagogues who were too old to enter the army if there should be a war, others who entertained so high an opinion of their own ability that they did not believe they could be spared from the direction of the affairs of state in such an event, declaimed vehemently and unceasingly against the North; against its aggressions upon the South; its interference with Southern rights, etc., etc.

"They denounced the Northerners as cowards, poltroons, negro-worshippers; claimed that one Southern man was equal to five Northern men in battle; that if the South would stand up for its rights the North would back down. Mr. Jefferson Davis said in a speech, delivered at La Grange, Mississippi, before the secession of that State, that he would agree to drink all the blood spilled south of Mason and Dixon's line if there should be a war.

"The young men who would have the fighting to do in case of war, believed all these statements, both in regard to the aggressiveness of the North and its cowardice. They, too, cried out for a separation from such people. The great bulk of the legal voters of the South were men who owned no slaves; their homes were generally in the hills and poor country; their facilities for educating their children, even up to the point of reading and writing, were very limited; their interest in the contest was very meager--what there was, if they had been capable of seeing it, was with the North; they too needed emancipation. Under the old regime they were looked down upon by those who controlled all the affairs in the interest of slave-owners, as poor white trash who were allowed the ballot so long as they cast it according to direction."

--U.S. Grant, Personal Memoirs (via Ta-Nehisi Coates)

Anomalias

A prelude to the Arctic melting season: We are entering the final stage of the freezing season in the Arctic. The sea ice has reached all shores, and where there aren't shores it reaches as far south as the winds and currents will permit. Or, at least it used to go like that.

Ice growth had been relatively slow in sea ice regions like the Barents Sea, Kara Sea and Greenland Sea (see this Cryosphere Today map to get an idea of where the regions are), but nothing (much) out of the ordinary. However, in the past two weeks a persistent weather pattern emerged that is bringing Siberian cold to almost all of Europe, but warm air and water to Novaya Zemlya, the large island that separates the Barentsz and Kara Seas.

The effect this has had can clearly be seen when comparing yesterday's sea ice concentration image with those of previous years on the same date:

image courtesy of the University of Bremen

I have been looking at the Arctic sea ice from up close for about two years now, but this is definitely one of the most spectacular things I have seen so far. It's almost as if the melting season has already started in the Barents and Kara Seas, two months earlier than normal. The only year that looks even remotely similar to this year is 2005 [....]

Astronomy Picture of the Day, 2012 February 10 - O centro de um Aglomerado Globular de Estrelas, a 13000 anos-luz

Astronomy Picture of the Day

At the Core of NGC 6752
Credit: ESA/Hubble, NASA

Explanation: This sharp Hubble Space Telescope view looks deep into NGC 6752. Some 13,000 light-years away toward the southern constellation Pavo, the globular star cluster roams the halo of our Milky Way galaxy. Over 10 billion years old, NGC 6752 holds over 100 thousand stars in a sphere about 100 light-years in diameter, but the Hubble image frame spans the central 10 or so light-years and resolves stars near the dense cluster core. In fact the frame includes some of the cluster's blue straggler stars, stars which appear to be too young and massive to exist in a cluster whose stars are all expected to be at least twice as old as the Sun. Explorations of the NGC 6752 have also indicated that a remarkable fraction of the stars near the cluster's core, are multiple star systems, supporting arguments that star mergers and collisions in the dense stellar environment can create the cluster's blue straggler stars.

Notas respigadas duma leitura em curso, de ontem e de hoje, que se recomenda de novo

Da II parte, ponto 5, de Portugal: Dívida Pública e Défice Democrático, de Paulo Trigo Pereira, Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos.

A nossa democracia tem sido incapaz de tomar decisões políticas sustentáveis, que no longo prazo se financiem de forma equilibrada.

Em sociedades democráticas há essencialmente duas perspectivas em relação à determinação do interesse público. Uma, a de que o bem comum será aquilo que a maioria considerar que é do interesse público [....] Outra visão de interesse público, que subscrevemos, enfatiza o processo pelo qual se alcança a decisão política e dá maior importância às condições de deliberação prévias á decisão final [....] A probabilidade de as decisões políticas contribuírem para o bem comum é maior se elas resultarem de processos transparentes (informação, estudos, relatórios) e imparciais de deliberação pública sobre opções em presença e os impactos imediatos e futuros das possíveis alternativas de acção. A votação final será por vezes necessária quando não exista consenso, mas é apenas um estádio da tomada de decisão [....]

As razões [....] {por que} muitas vezes não {se} acautelam devidamente o impacto das medidas que têm efeitos nas próximas gerações são sobretudo três e reforçam-se mutuamente: desconhecimento do alcance e dimensão dos problemas; ausência, ou pouca relevância, dada a considerações éticas intergeracionais; desfasamento no tempo entre a tomada de decisão política e os impactos económicos e sociais dessas decisões [....].

O problema que estamos a analisar é o que pode surgir quando na provisão de certos bens e serviços (que se pensa serem públicos) os benefícios são concentrados e os custos difusos [....] Sempre que as unidades de decisão escolhem na base de benefícios específicos e conseguem "exportar" parte dos custos para terceiros (não beneficiários), as decisões são ineficientes (produz-se mais que o óptimo [o exemplo dado é o da construção hipotética de um túnel na Madeira que produzirá 26 milhões de benefícios diversos contra um custo de 100 milhões, mas que será feito porque do ponto de vista estrito do GRRAM o custo efectivo será só de 25 milhões - a parte paga pelas receitas fiscais da Região - com o resto a ser pago por outros: contribuintes europeus e continentais]

Importação de armamento

Lido há pouco. " ...com uma população de 11 milhões, a Grécia é o maior importador de armamento convencional na Europa. A Grécia tem a maior percentagem do PIB dos países da UE em gastos com armamento."

Gostava de saber, já agora, como se posiciona Portugal neste tipo de balaço (quanto ao peso das despesas militares no PIB da Grécia e de Portugal, ver aqui, e mantenho aquilo que disse nesta outra nota sobre o mesmo assunto).

Há cinquenta, cem milhões de anos, um penedo rolou por uma enconta abaixo, na Lua ...

A Bouncing Moon Boulder

A large boulder stopped on its way down a sloping wall in the central peak of Schiller crater on the Moon. Credit: NASA/GSFC/Arizona State University.

 

Astronomy Picture of the Day, 2012 February 8 - Encélado

Astronomy Picture of the Day

Enceladus Backlit by Saturn
Image Credit: Cassini Imaging Team, SSI, JPL, ESA, NASA; Color Composite: Gordan Ugarkovic

Explanation: This moon is shining by the light of its planet. Specifically, a large portion of Enceladus pictured above is illuminated primarily by sunlight first reflected from the planet Saturn. The result is that the normally snow-white moon appears in the gold color of Saturn's cloud tops. As most of the illumination comes from the image left, a labyrinth of ridges throws notable shadows just to the right of the image center, while the kilometer-deep canyon Labtayt Sulci is visible just below. The bright thin crescent on the far right is the only part of Enceladus directly lit by the Sun. The above image was taken last year by the robotic Cassini spacecraft during a close pass by by the enigmatic moon. Inspection of the lower part of this digitally sharpened image reveals plumes of ice crystals thought to originate in a below-surface sea. 

A propósito de anomalias e de coisas que têm a ver com elas

Meteorologist Masters: "The Climate Has Shifted to a New State Capable of Delivering Rare & Unprecedented Weather Events" | ThinkProgress

Is Climate Change Bringing the Arctic to Europe? | ThinkProgress: Less Summer Arctic Sea Ice Cover May Mean Some Colder, Snowier Winters in Central Europe [For Now]

Naomi Klein's Inconvenient Climate Conclusions - NYTimes.com

As lições gregas

Sou da opinião que a Grécia pode funcionar bem como o benchmark negativo da nossa situação. Portugal não é a Grécia, mas esta ilustra o ponto a que poderíamos chegar se algumas nossas disfuncionalidades não fossem resolvidas de modo adequado. As nossas diferenças com a Grécia têm a ver numa parte significativa com a história (por exemplo, se não tivemos um século XIX bom, os gregos tiveram um horrível ) e a geografia (a sua perificidade é maior do que a nossa), mas existem parecenças, embora, sempre menos virulentas no nosso caso. Não tenho tempo para desenvolver o ponto, mas a leitura de algum do material apresentado abaixo (nomeadamente, a primeira e última referências) é convincente quanto à correcção do argumento. O restante material diz respeito mais às posições, e às razões que as determinam, que estão a ser tomadas, externamente, quanto à Grécia e podem desembocar num desastre não só para os gregos como para todos.

Greece, the Eurozone, and the Debt Crisis | Greek Economists for Reform.com

The euro crisis: Get the Hellas out of here | The Economist

Economist's View: Fed Watch: Another Experiment?

Economist's View: Stiglitz: Capturing the ECB

Centre for European Reform: Greece's real challenge

PS: Ainda mais esta referência:  

The Portuguese Economy: Eurobonds: a Greek tale with three lessons

Um notável anúncio a diversos títulos ...

In Praise of Clint Eastwood's Metaphorical "Halftime in America" Superbowl Ad | ThinkProgress

Avalanche em Marte!

New Avalanche in Action on Mars Captured by HiRISE

An avalanche on Mars captured by the HiRISE camera on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter on November 27, 2011. Credit: NASA/JPL/University of Arizona. Image cropped and edited by Nancy Atkinson.

É isso mesmo: as pessoas sensatas, e discretas, desconfiam sempre das posições (que lhes parecem ser...) extremas

Open Thread Plus Classic Toles Climate Cartoon | ThinkProgress

Sobre as questões de saúde, lá e cá.

Acabei de ouvir o médico e professor Manuel Sobrinho Simões discretear, no programa Contra Corrente da SIC Notícias, sobre o serviço nacional de saúde: bom senso; lucidez; inteligência; frontalidade e capacidade de equacionar,de modo convincente, os problemas de eficiência com a defesa dos direitos dos doentes. Se não viu, aceda ao site da SIC Notícias para visualizar o vídeo.

É óbvio que o serviço nacional (e regional) de saúde necessita de recursos financeiros, mas precisa (talvez mais) de tudo aquilo que o professor diz. Eu acentuaria aquilo que enfatizou sobre o carácter imperioso de responsabilizar os doentes na minimização dos factores de risco para a sua saúde. Mas para isso suceder é necessário esclarecer, trabalho dos profissionais de saúde é claro, mas não só - o combate ao consumo do tabaco foi assumido por todos, como deveria sê-lo, por exemplo, o combate ao consumo do açúcar (em todas as suas formas), às más práticas nutricionais (o Correio dos Açores trazia hoje um artigo muito interessante a esse respeito).... O cancro nos Açores combater-se-ia também assim, e se o trabalho fosse feito de modo adequado, não seriam necessários, eventualmente, tão grandes recursos financeiros como isso para obter resultados.

Na política da saúde, como nas outras políticas públicas, o esclarecimento, a responsabilização, e a participação dos cidadãos são condição incontronável de práticas e soluções políticas eficazes (e desculpem lá, eficientes). Ora, a responsabilidade do processo ser iniciado e sustentado impende sobre a classe política (governo e oposição), e o facto de ela não estar neste capítulo à altura é que faz com que alguns (muito poucos) vão aos arames. A política em Portugal, na parte que diz respeito à produção de bens públicos e semi-públicos, é somente uma questão de cobertura orçamental - e depois são aqueles que reclamam da eficácia e de eficiência é que são economicistas: veja-se a irritação do António Barreto com o uso e abuso do epíteto no lançamento de um livro da FFMS sobre a saúde, numa entrevista ao Expresso, em Dezembro passado,se bem me lembro.

E já agora, que tudo isso está ligado, para perceber como é que chegamos aqui, leiam (ainda estou a ler) de Paulo Trigo Pereira, Portugal: Dívida Pública e Défice Democrático, da Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos. É informação para os cidadãos, com os economistas a não perderem nada em lê-lo também (as licenciaturas, por vezes, aconteceram há muito).

O mundo está a ficar cada vez mais estranho... às vezes, pela positiva!

Isto vem mesmo a calhar após o referido na nota anterior, embora seja uma grande surpresa para mim, e isso não só pelo que o ministro (imagine-se,do petróleo) saudita diz do aquecimento global, mas pelo que diz sobre as energias renováveis (ler tudo):

Saudi Oil Minister Calls Global Warming "Humanity's Most Pressing Concern" | ThinkProgress

Pico de petróleo

Ontem, no programa do Medina Carreira na TV24, um especialista declarava que a tese do pico de petróleo tinha sido infirmada pelos factos. Existem outros que discordam e que rebatem todos os pontos referidos naquele programa (é necessário ler a nota na totalidade):

Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed: Stop wrangling over global warming and instead reduce fossil-fuel use for the sake of the global economy.

That’s the message from two scientists, one from the University of Washington and one from the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, who say in the current issue of the journal Nature (Jan. 26) that the economic pain of a flattening oil supply will trump the environment as a reason to curb the use of fossil fuels.

“Given our fossil-fuel dependent economies, this is more urgent and has a shorter time frame than global climate change,” says James W. Murray, UW professor of oceanography, who wrote the Nature commentary with David King, director of Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.

The “tipping point” for oil supply appears to have occurred around 2005, says Murray, who compared world crude oil production with world prices going back to 1998. Before 2005, supply of regular crude oil was elastic and increased in response to price increases. Since then, production appears to have hit a wall at 75 million barrels per day in spite of price increases of 15 percent each year.

O estímulo que não é tão estimulante como o pintam!

As coisas, normalmente, não são como, consensualmente, são pintadas. Os EUA, na perspectiva de muitos comentadores económicos europeus, são qualificados como tendo uma política orçamental não contracionista (pior, para-keynesiana), isto porque a administração Obama no seu início teve um programa de estímulo muito superior [não tenho certeza sobre isto, se o valor dos programas de estímulo europeus forem dados de forma agregada] à da europeia, e, note-se, apesar de economistas como Krugman terem afirmado, amiudada e estentóriamente, que a dimensão do estímulo de Obama não iria ser a suficiente. 

Enfim, os gráficos abaixo demonstram quem tem razão (penso que já tinha colocado o primeiro neste blogue):

FT Alphaville » The missing GDP

"Words fail me, but they’re hardly necessary"

The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Quote of the evening:

“Europe would not function any more if it changed course after every election.”

(Angela Merkel, quoted here, poo-pooing the notion that French voters might have any say over whether the next government ratifies this treaty or not.)

Words fail me, but they’re hardly necessary.

Algumas leituras sobre o momento económico europeu

Das mais antigas para as as mais recentes - aquelas que foram ficando.

The Origins of the Greek Financial Crisis | Foreign Affairs

So, as the Greek state expanded territorially it also expanded its responsibilities, undercutting old traditions of localism and community action. Herein lies the root of the country's current crisis. Long-established, autonomous local elites were displaced in the 1920s, their place taken by a new group of people adept at managing a rent-seeking relationship with the state. The new local leaders joined national parties and then worked to build up party machines by distributing state largesse. Not a single region or city of note mobilized its resources in pursuit of economic success, based on international competitiveness. Instead all major localities channeled central government resources into patronage. The central government, which was dominated by the same parties, was an energetic accomplice.

By the late 1980s, the interaction between local and national elites had already produced a highly dysfunctional system. Appointments to key institutions -- hospitals, museums, universities, and port authorities -- were not meritocratic. To become president of a university, one would need to buy off the student unions, which could deliver the votes needed to win an election. To run a hospital, one would had to have put in the time as a hanger-on of one of Greece's major national parties. Unconditional European Union funding in the 1980s and early 1990s, and easy international borrowing in the 2000s helped both the left and right finance unsustainable patronage politics.

According to Eurostat, the EU's statistical agency, public payroll expenses (salaries and pensions of civil servants) rose in Greece from 38 percent of state revenue in 2000 to 55 percent in 2009. Compounding this trend, local elites became hostile to any coherent national reform effort, precisely to preserve the system that now privileged them. For example, in the mid-2000s a local alliance in Salonica successfully resisted the granting of a concession to a major international port operator, in order to retain management of it themselves.

 Happy 2012? | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

This observation raises another, most disquieting, interpretation. Are the politicians captured by special interests?

A common thread of many decisions is that they aim at protecting banks. Clearly, no one wishes to see a banking collapse but if, as many believe, some deep bank restructuring is unavoidable, forbearance is highly counterproductive. The capture interpretation rests on a web of signals: the initial refusal of contemplating any sovereign debt restructuring, last summer’s row with the IMF Managing Director, pressure on the European Banking Authority to conduct gentle stress tests, and the negotiation of PSI with the world banking lobby leading to solutions that protect banks while providing little debt relief.

The ECB’s actions have been equally disquieting, raising all the same questions (understanding of the phenomenon, access to technical support, capture). The small-scale bond purchases of the SMP have repeatedly failed to quieten markets down. Tactically, the presence of the ECB in the market provides temporary relief. Yet, official statements that the latest intervention was a one-off have systematically undermined any strategic benefit that could be reaped. Most disturbing is continuous insistence on the primacy of the price stability objective, as well as concern with the transmission channels of monetary policy at a time when bond markets are in panic and the interbank market has stopped functioning. As he left the Executive Board, Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi has evoked “quasi-religious discussions” within the Eurosystem. This would confirm the impression that the central bank is not focused on hard-core economic analysis and would explain why it does not seem to learn from past mistakes either.

The only kind interpretation is that the ECB and some politicians shrewdly want to use the crisis to achieve lasting fiscal discipline throughout the Eurozone. One idea is that acute pain will teach a lesson to countries that have always thought little of fiscal discipline. A better one is that we need to go to the brink to make serious changes politically acceptable.

A Month In Spain That Didn’t Shake The World | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opinion

Simply put I think Spain’s centralised wage bargaining system can explain why Spain hasn’t had an internal devaluation and wage and price reduction of the kind Latvia, or even, Ireland had. Spain’s labour and product market structures are inflexible, and this is why the economy is having so much difficulty adjusting, and making the transition from a construction and consumer-demand driven economy to an export-driven one.

But this lack of labour market flexibility isn’t NOT the main reason competitiveness was lost before the start of the crisis. The reason competitiveness was lost was the availability of excessively cheap borrowing made available by Europe’s large and deep capital markets and cheap interest rates at the ECB. It was this massive and cheap liquidity which generated one of the largest property bubbles seen this century. The bubble created huge distortions (many of which have still to be unwound), and basically meant that it was too easy for everyone (workers and employers alike) to make money, so there was no pressure even on the employers themselves to address the fact they were paying increasing wages without getting increasing productivity. It was simply a “cool” time for everyone.

Jobless in Spain: What can be done about the insider-outsider divide | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists:

Spain has a lower public debt-to-GDP ratio than not only Italy, but also France, Germany, and the UK. So why is it threatened with another downgrade? This column points to the fundamental problem with Spain’s economy – the insider-outsider divide that has led to the highest unemployment rate in the Eurozone. It proposes a single open-ended contract for all workers – a difficult solution whose time has come.

The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Debt and Deleveraging

JOHN MAULDIN: Staring Into The Abyss

                 Problemas da Europa:

1. A growing number of its countries are insolvent or close to it. It is increasingly likely that the only way forward is for defaults of some type, to lessen the burden of debt to a level where it can be dealt with and that will allow the countries the possibility of growth, which is the only real answer to the problems they face.

2. Because of growing fears of multiple defaults (just Greece would be bad enough!) most of the banks in Europe are seen to be insolvent and in need of hundreds of billions of euros of new capital. The interbank market in Europe is in a shambles, and banks park their cash with the ECB, at a lower rate of return, as that is the only institution they trust. They clearly do not trust each other. As an aside, I heard from many sources while I was Hong Kong and Singapore, meeting with readers and friends, that European banks (especially French) are cutting back on their trade lending, which is making normal commerce more difficult. Didn't we just go through that in 2008?

3. The real problem in Europe is the massive trade imbalances between the peripheral countries and the so-called core countries. Without the ability to adjust currencies, those trade imbalances will render any debt solution moot, as a country cannot balance its budget while it runs a trade deficit and its citizens and businesses also deleverage. I have written about this arithmetic problem on numerous occasions. There must be balance or there must be a mechanism to achieve balance.

Astronomy Picture of the Day, 2012 January 27 - Uma supernova de há muito tempo atrás ..

Astronomy Picture of the Day

NGC 3239 and SN 2012A
Image Credit & Copyright: Adam Block , Mt. Lemmon SkyCenter, University of Arizona

Explanation: About 40,000 light-years across, pretty, irregular galaxy NGC 3239 lies near the center of this lovely field of galaxies in the galaxy rich constellation Leo. At a distance of only 25 million light-years it dominates the frame, sporting a peculiar arrangement of structures, young blue star clusters and star forming regions, suggesting that NGC 3239 (aka Arp 263) is the result of a galaxy merger. Appearing nearly on top of the pretty galaxy is a bright, spiky, foreground star, a nearby member of our own Milky Way galaxy almost directly along our line-of-sight to NGC 3239. Still, NGC 3239 is notable for hosting this year's first confirmed supernova, designated SN 2012A. It was discovered early this month by supernova hunters Bob Moore, Jack Newton, and Tim Puckett. Indicated in a cropped version of the wider image, SN 2012A is just below and right of the bright foreground star. Of course, based on the light-travel time to NGC 3239, the supernova explosion itself occurred 25 million years ago, triggered by the core collapse of a massive star.

Anomalias

Arctic Temperatures Continue Rapid Rise as 2011 Breaks Record Set in 2010 | ThinkProgress

Record Ice Loss and Tundra Melt Amplify Warming Feedbacks

NASA just (19 January 2012) released data showing that last year temperatures in the Arctic rose beyond the record established in 2010 — setting a new record for 2011. News of the record Arctic temperatures follows a series of alarming developments related to the Arctic in recent months.

The surface temperature anomaly for the region extending from 64N to 90N, from 1880 through 2011, in degrees Centigrade above or below the temperature during the 1951-1980 base period. Temperatures have risen substantially since 1880 and the rate of increase has been especially rapid since the late 1970s. Source: WWF, using data from NASA.

Astronomy Picture of the Day, 2012 January 22 - Polo Norte de Saturno, um local estranho ...

Astronomy Picture of the Day

Saturn's Hexagon Comes to Light
Image Credit: Cassini Imaging Team, SSI, JPL, ESA, NASA

Explanation: Believe it or not, this is the North Pole of Saturn. It is unclear how an unusual hexagonal cloud system that surrounds Saturn's north pole was created, keeps its shape, or how long it will last. Originally discovered during the Voyager flybys of Saturn in the 1980s, nobody has ever seen anything like it elsewhere in the Solar System. Although its infrared glow was visible previously to the Cassini spacecraft now orbiting Saturn, in 2009 the mysterious hexagonal vortex became fully illuminated by sunlight for the first time during the Cassini's visit. Since then, Cassini has imaged the rotating hexagon in visible light enough times to create a time-lapse movie. The pole center was not well imaged and has been excluded. This movie shows many unexpected cloud motions, such as waves emanating from the corners of the hexagon. Planetary scientists are sure to continue to study this most unusual cloud formation for quite some time. 

O ridículo do pastel de nata

O ridículo do pastel de nata não está no que o ministro disso a propósito, mas no ridículo que querem imputar ao que disse e na dimensão que lhe deram. A preocupação que se deve ter com o episódio é com aquilo que o episódio parece sugerir sobre  nós próprios.

O que o ministro disse é simples: o pastel é um recurso nacional (cultural, gastronómico), tal como a cortiça, as sardinhas enlatadas, o vinho de porto, e coisas quejandas, de qualidade comprovada e de fácil penetração em tudo o que é sítio, e que deve ser utilizado como aqueles para os devidos efeitos, a nível internacional  – um dos efeitos (admitá-mo-lo: trivial e economicista)  é gerar rendimento que possibilite o país financiar as compras (entre quais o novo carro, o novo portátil, a viagem a Cuba, as aparelhagens para o SNS, etc, etc.) que fazemos ao estrangeiro, sem aumentar o endividamento externo galopante que se verificou na última década  e que se constitui como a grande determinante do sarilho em que estamos metidos.  Elementar .

O ministro não referiu que a solução dos problemas nacionais está no pastel (ou na sua mera exportação, embora alguns o façam com sucesso, o que só reforça o argumento), mas disse implicitamente, que a solução passa, também, pelo erradicar da atitude que leva a que o país económico não aproveite as boas oportunidades de negócio específicas de que dispõe. O ministro o que quiz dizer é  que não não devemos, não nos podemos dar o luxo de desprezar nem o pastel de nata, nem os outros pastéis (em sentido estrito, enfatizo eu, porque  a doçaria nacional, resultado de termos sidos os primeiros grandes produtores da droga açúcar, é riquíssima – olhem, que belo exemplo, foi com ela que financiamos a gloriosa expansão no Atlântico de quatrocentos – e atrás do pastel de nata poderia marchar toda aquela) nem quaisquer outros produtos portugueses. O ministro poderia ter acrescentado, numa linha de intervenção pedagógica, que na área das exportações, se aplica o ditado da galinha encher o papo, grão a grão, e ter frisado que estava espantado pelo facto de alguém não ter feito com o pastel luso aquilo que os dinamarqueses fizeram com o queijo grego Feta. É óbvio que o ministro não tem a tarimba política dos useiros da política portuguesa – nenhum deles diria semelhante coisa; o ministro é naif; é um estrangeirado e não tem dignitas.

O desprezo de muita da elite portuguesa sobre os estrangeirados e as questões do pastel é um desprezo fidalgo, pré-revolução industrial, muito Ancien Régime, muito anti-economicista, alimentada pelo desconhecimento do país (nisso o Pacheco Pereira tem toda a razão), por todo o tipo de iliteracias, e pelo preconceito contra a possibilidade do que é português e bom, simplesmente por ser modesto, não passar lá fora e poder mesmo envergonharmo-nos – mais um afloramento da mania das grandezas e o do que é próprio  (leia-se Os Fidalgos da Casa Mourisca, para começar). É por isso que quando falam do regresso à terra, ou o regresso ao mar, não sabem do que estão a falar, não que esse propósito não seja correcto, mas porque não tem qualquer ideia do que isso exige para ser eficaz (ah, também, eficiente).

E o que é mais interessante, tendo em atenção que grande parte dessa elite é de esquerda,  é que à volta do problema do pastel se poderia articular mais um contributo para a narrativa (em grande parte correcta) do grande capital em Portugal só estar interessado na produção de bens não-transacionáveis, em sectores de acesso condicionado ao apadrinhamento do Estado, e na distribuição, na medida em que, apesar desse grande capital dispor dos meios para o efeito, deixar de lado, contra toda a racionalidade económica, oportunidades de negócio como lançarem, ou promover o lançamento, à escala global um bom franchising do pastel, do café, etc. (um Starbucks luso, como já existe um McDonal's do frango do churrasco - que nos valham os emigrantes, portugueses sem pretensões, que limitam-se a vender aquilo que vende). O desprezo subjectivo (e objectivo) manifestado quanto ao pastel é mais um  indicador da fragilidade e falta de profundidade do capitalismo luso, mas ao mesmo tempo, de grande parte da esquerda, que não conhece o seu país, o mundo em que vive, e que, nem, ao menos, leu algumas coisas ...

Aliás, recuperando a polémica sobre o patriotismo do grupo Jerónimo Martins, para mim a grande questão nunca foi a transferência do domicílio fiscal para o Holanda, mas saber se a sua  internacionalização induziu um aumento interessante da exportação de produtos portugueses, e obviamente, já agora, se ocorreu ao grupo pôr os polacos a comer o pastel, entre outras coisas. Se assim não aconteceu, ou não são bons gestores, ou não valorizam o que o país tem e não são patriotas, o que, convenhamos, vai dar tudo no mesmo: Q.E.D.

Enquanto isso (não que isto não seja importante também) ...

NASA Finds 2011 is Ninth-Warmest Year on Record

While average global temperature will still fluctuate from year to year, scientists focus on the decadal trend. Nine of the 10 warmest years since 1880 have occurred since the year 2000, as the Earth has experienced sustained higher temperatures than in any decade during the 20th century. As greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, scientists expect the long-term temperature increase to continue as well. (Data source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory, Robert Simmon)

 

Depois de ouvir o Pacheco Pereira comentar o momento político, hoje, na TVI 24, sou da opinião que o PS deveria-o convidar para Secretário-Geral!

Astronomy Picture of the Day, 2012 January 5 - Titã e Dione face aos anéis de Saturno

Astronomy Picture of the Day

Ringside with Titan and Dione
Credit : Cassini Imaging Team , SSI, JPL, ESA, NASA

Explanation: Orbiting in the plane of Saturn's rings, Saturnian moons have a perpetual ringside view of the gorgeous gas giant planet. Of course, while passing near the ring plane the Cassini spacecraft also shares their stunning perspective. The rings themselves can be seen slicing across the middle of this Cassini snapshot from May of last year. The scene features Titan, largest, and Dione, third largest moon of Saturn. Remarkably thin, the bright rings still cast arcing shadows across the planet's cloud tops at the bottom of the frame. Pale Dione is about 1,100 kilometers across and orbits over 300,000 kilometers from the visible outer edge of the A ring. Dione is seen through Titan's atmospheric haze. At 5,150 kilometers across, Titan is about 2.3 million kilometers from Cassini, while Dione is 3.2 million kilometers away.

Pois é ...

Daily chart: Growth in 2012 | The Economist

Energia solar na Alemanha: evolução

German Solar Output Increases by 60% in 2011 | ThinkProgress

Just weeks after the solar industry installed the one millionth system in Germany, the country’s solar trade association announced that the technology accounted for 3% of total energy generation in 2011 — increasing 60% over 2010 to 18.6 terawatt-hours (18.6 billion kilowatt-hours.)

Even with changes to the feed-in tariff that have reduced solar photovoltaic installations compared with previous boom years, the sector was still the fastest growing among all other renewable energy sectors in 2011, according to preliminary figures.

This follows data released last week showing that renewable energy accounted for 19.9 percent of electricity production in the country this year, growing 16.4 percent over 2010. Meanwhile, overall energy use in the country fell 4.8% due to warmer temperatures and increasing efficiency efforts, further boosting the value of solar generation.

Previsões - as mais convincentes que li até ao momento

BBC News - Three big questions for the eurozone

In a normal year predicting economics is like predicting the outcome of a card game: there are too many variables and the only certainty being that the suckers will lose and the stealthily self-interested will win. In 2012 however, the shape of the crisis is heavily predetermined: there are a series of crucial stages the eurocrisis has to go through and the way they're resolved will affect everything else. Starting from where we are now, there are three big questions:

• Is the ECB's unofficial money printing operation - a massively expanded bond-buying venture combined with unlimited provision of cash by global central banks - going to be enough to prevent a second credit crunch, centred on Italy?
• Does Greece spiral finally into default, social crisis and chaos, raising the prospect of the near-dictatorial economic policies needed if you have to exit the Euro?
• Do the French banks take so many losses on the sovereign debt of southern Europe that they have to be part nationalised, thus removing the country's AAA credit rating and the all-important financial parity between Germany and France that lies at the heart of the European system?

Right now my answers to these questions would be yes, yes and yes. [e continua ...]