20 de junho de 2008

Referendo irlandês: o sim, sem convicção e sem política! (IV)


    Esta nota poderá ser a "mãe de todas as notas" - mas arruma, em princípio, o acervo (restante) de artigos sobre o referendo irlandês. São artigos de fontes, perspectivas e posições políticas diferentes, mas todos careiam ou tópicos de reflexão ou informações interessantes. Ficam aqui também como referência para notas futuras.



  • FT.com / Columnists / Samuel Brittan - Why the Irish were right to say No







    "If some European countries such as Germany and France and a few others want to develop the centralist and corporatist model further, I do not see the objection. Indeed we are likely to see not a two-speed but a multi-speed Europe, even though the British Foreign Office will worry that the UK might not be absolutely sure of a seat at an imaginary top table. Too bad."
















  • Europe’s Unhappy Union by Theodore Dalrymple, City Journal 18 June 2008







    "Is the European Union heading for a Yugoslavian-style denouement? It sometimes looks as if its political class, oblivious to the wishes or concerns of the EU’s various populations, is determined to bring one about. The French and the Dutch voted against the proposed European Constitution, but that did not deter the intrepid political class from pressing ahead with its plans for a superstate that no one else wants. ...













    ... What could explain the Irish obduracy? Several explanations came forth, among them Irish xenophobia and intellectual backwardness and the malign influence of the Murdoch-owned press. The narrowest economic self-interest was also said to have played a part. Having been huge beneficiaries of European largesse over the last 30 years, the Irish—who have the second-highest per capita GDP in Europe after Luxembourg—are now being asked to pay some of it back in the form of subsidies to the new union members from Eastern Europe. Ingrates that they are, they don’t want to pay up, especially now that their own economic growth rate has slowed dramatically in the wake of the financial crisis and the economic future looks uncertain. Another explanation for the Irish “no” vote was that Irish citizens had been frightened by the proposal of the French finance minister to equalize tax rates throughout Europe, thus destroying unfair competition (all competition is unfair, unless the French win).









    ... What the people of Europe want is completely irrelevant. For the moment, all is peaceful and quiet. The political class, which loves the unitary European state precisely because it so completely escapes democratic or any other oversight (let alone control), and for whom it acts as a giant pension fund, holds the upper hand for now. But tensions and frustrations in Europe have a history of expressing themselves in nasty ways."




















  • The Irish “no” and the rich-poor/urban-rural divide vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists






    "At first sight the French no vote has little in common with the Irish rejection of the Lisbon treaty. In France the scaremongers said that further integration would lead to a fiscal race to the bottom, and place France's liberal abortion laws in jeopardy. In Ireland the scaremongers said that further integration would lead to a fiscal race to the top, and the imposition of liberal abortion laws on what remains a largely Catholic country.










    And yet there are striking socio-economic similarities between the two votes that Europe's politicians will disregard at their peril. A glance at the electoral map suffices to confirm what earlier opinion polls had indicated: the Irish vote divided along class lines in a stark and disturbing fashion. In the most affluent constituencies of Dublin, such as Dun Laoghaire, where even a modest home can cost upwards of €1 million (although that is changing), 60% or more voted for the treaty. In working class areas of the city, it was the no vote which scored in excess of 60%. Brouard and Tiberj (2006) show that precisely the same division between rich and poor, or the skilled and unskilled, can be discerned in the French 2005 vote.









    There are at least two ways of interpreting such patterns. The first would hold that well educated voters are more politically sophisticated and better able to understand the issues involved in a complex amendment to the institutional underpinnings of the European Union. The second interpretation is that, on the contrary, both rich and poor are capable of correctly discerning where their economic interests lie, and vote accordingly.









    The argument would be that globalisation generally, and European integration more narrowly, has overwhelmingly favoured skilled workers, at least in affluent countries such as France, Ireland and the Netherlands. Unskilled workers, by contrast, feel under threat from Romanian (or Asian) competition, or immigration from Eastern Europe and further afield. And while those of us who are more fortunate might regret it, it is hardly surprising that -- in accordance with Heckscher-Ohlin logic -- they vote accordingly.









    ... . But I have to say that my bet is that the gap between middle-class and working-class voting patterns has a lot more to do with different interests, real or perceived, than with supposed differences in political sophistication. To a large extent this prior is based on the work of Anna Maria Mayda and Dani Rodrik, and Richard Sinnott and myself, on the determinants of attitudes towards globalisation across countries.









    That work has shown that while the unskilled are more hostile than the skilled to trade and immigration in rich countries, in poor countries it is the unskilled who are the most pro-globalisation -- which seems difficult to reconcile with the argument that the less well educated simply cannot be expected to understand the benefits of international economic integration.









    If this interpretation is correct, then the Irish referendum result, in one of the most pro-European members of the Union, should serve as a wake-up call to politicians that if they want to maintain the benefits of open international markets, as I do, they will simply have to take more notice of the concerns of those who are being left behind. Of course, I wouldn't want to claim that this referendum result was simply about the economic interests of different groups of voters.









    The greatest difficulty facing the pro-treaty side was in articulating a compelling reason to vote yes, when the European Union has clearly not collapsed in the wake of the 2005 and 2007 enlargements. Public mistrust of politicians, in Ireland as in France, meant that assurances that the treaty really was necessary, all appearances to the contrary, were always going to fall on a great many deaf ears. As in the Netherlands, there was surely a fear that as a small country Ireland stood to lose by more than France or Germany in giving up its veto -- and this impression is bound to grow in the weeks ahead, if as seems likely Europe's leaders attempt to ignore this Irish roadblock to their institutional ambitions on the grounds that Ireland is…small.









    Some voters dislike the way that the French and Dutch referendum results were essentially ignored by Europe’s leadership. And so on. My claim is simply that economic interests were one factor among many, and should not be ignored. If working-class and rural voters are systematically voting against further European integration, that is something which Europe's political leadership will need to listen to. ...


















  • "In the wake of Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon treaty, observers around the world are attempting to understand what, exactly, the "no" vote means (see Tyler Cowen for his, characteristically interesting, conclusions). Some European leaders have all but settled on the idea that a two-track European Union is unavoidable, whereby serious intergrationists press on with their project while sceptics sit on the edges of what would be a glorified free trade area.






    Writing at VoxEU, Daniel Gros argues that this possibility should have been made explicit in referenda on the reform package. In other words, the question put to Ireland shouldn't have been, "What do you think," but rather, "Will you join us or shall we kick you right out?" Incentives are extremely misaligned when a small-nation electorate can punish ‘Brussels’ and its own political class at little or no cost. Ireland represents 1% of the EU, so 99% of the cost of the ‘no’ falls on other members.


    This column proposes a radical solution – the other EU members should propose to leave the old EU and create a new one with the Lisbon Treaty as its founding document. The Irish would then have to decide whether they’re in or out. Ireland clearly felt that the treaty would involve costs for the nation, with which voters were uncomfortable. But Ireland inarguably enjoys huge benefits from EU membership, as well. By allowing Ireland the opportunity to veto the costs without risking the benefits, the EU essentially decided the outcome of the approval process before eurosceptical activists ever lifted a finger"





























  • Marginal Revolution: Irish thoughts


    "Henry writes: In particular, German parliamentarian Axel Schäfer’s comment that “With all respect for the Irish vote, we cannot allow the huge majority of Europe to be duped by a minority of a minority of a minority,” would have a bit more credibility if, you know, the majority of the majority of the majority had been given a chance to vote on the Treaty themselves.


    I can imagine a few other lessons:


    1. Give people a referendum on a big question and they will use it as a chance to voice their general displeasure with many other matters. New Zealand made that mistake on electoral reform. The Irish vote was strongly divided among rich-poor lines.


    2. According to polls, the Irish are not especially Euroskeptical. I guess that is "Eurosceptical". In any case multilateralism has limits.


    3. The option under consideration *was* Plan B. There is no obvious Plan C.


    4. It worked last time (2002) to ask them to vote again. Few people think that gambit can be played a second time.


    5. One Irishman opined: ""We're told we can vote no, that the system requires unanimity. But when (a `no' vote) actually happens, every time, the EU tells us: You really only have a right to vote yes," said Dublin travel agent Paul Brady, who voted against the treaty.


    6. Some deluded soul in the EU read a copy of John Calhoun instead of Buchanan and Tullock's Calculus of Consent. Hadn't they remembered the history of 17th and 18th century Poland and decided that a unanimity rule is a bad idea?


    7. If European nations demand a unanimity rule (which I can well imagine), is that not a sign that they have a free trade area but nothing close to a real political union?"












































  • Ilana Bet-El: John Bolton's Irish adventure Comment is free guardian.co.uk


    "Some time ago I asked who needs Fox News when you have John Bolton? Well, the Irish referendum slightly reformulated the question around the man: who needs sovereign democracy when you have John Bolton? There he was on June 8, declaring the Lisbon Treaty posed a threat to Nato and undermined democracy by handing more power to Brussels bureaucrats. It is worth noting that Ireland is not even a member of Nato – but only before asking what on earth he was doing, interfering in a process not relevant to him or his country? A large part of the answer must be that the Bolton opinion apparently knows no bounds. The world was his stage as US ambassador to the UN, then it was taken away from him by his own people in the US Congress, since he only got the job in a recess appointment, snuck in by his mate the president. So he is now reduced to hawking his mindless opinions around any stage available.

    But another part of the answer may be related to a slightly more problematic question: was there a US interest in the outcome of the Irish referendum? Again, a large part of the answer must be a resounding "no". The US is absorbed in itself even more than usual, since this is an election year. However, and notwithstanding, there are some persistent murmurs of a rightwing desire in the US to undermine the Lisbon Treaty, in an attempt to weaken the EU as a strong economic partner and a potential rival for world power.

    Such murmurs would be worthy of a giggle, were it not for some questions that now emerge, related to Declan Ganley, head of Libertas, whicht fronted the "no" campaign in Ireland. He was apparently shopping around for a PR company in Brussels to help him with his task. This was a year ago, and it should show his abysmal ignorance of the EU in that all PR shops in Brussels make their living out of helping companies and clients interface with the union, not close it down, so he found little joy. But here is the crucial fact: he was directed to Brussels by the Washington offices of various PR consultancies. In other words, he had gone to Washington first.

    And that begs the question: why is an Irish entrepreneur seeking a lobbying company on an EU referendum in Washington? For someone who claims to have made his fortune by his own wits – and someone who also claims to have decided to fight the Lisbon Treaty after reading through it to seek business opportunities – it is implausible to assume he did not know his own way to Brussels, or found out lobbying possibilities through his own Irish connections. One can only assume therefore that he started his quest in Washington because that was where his connections lay.

    Ganley remains an enigma in Ireland – though much has been made of his company's contracts with US defence forces in Iraq. (That in itself is ironic, since one of his central claims was that Ireland would be forced into a – non-existent – EU army and become militarised if the Lisbon Treaty was passed.) But then again, many international companies supply the US military. Indeed, one of them is owned by Ulick McEvaddy, another Irish entrepreneur who heads Omega Air, a Texas-based company that offers commercial airborne refuelling of military aircraft. He is one of the very few known contributors to Ganley's organisation, for on the whole it remains totally unclear how Libertas was funded or by whom.

    It also remains unclear why John Bolton felt the need, or authority, to comment upon a purely Irish – and possibly European – affair. Even with his vast ego, he cannot be accused of being stupid. These are uncomfortable questions, which are in some ways on the sidelines of the Irish referendum – and in others right at its heart. For it was and remains about democracy and its workings.

    And to may observers, the referendum seems anything but democratic. Much has been made about this being the third referendum to reject the treaty that was once the constitution – but it must also be said that it stands out as different, and not because of Ireland's size. For at base, in the previous two referenda, in France and the Netherlands, some of the major political parties expressed doubts and openly joined the "no" campaign. In Ireland this was adamantly not the case. All the elected political parties bar one – Sinn Fein – were in favour of the treaty.

    Sinn Fein is also a legal and duly elected political party, but while Jonathan Powell has done a masterful job of portraying the positive traits of Gerry Adams, it has to be said that one definition of a nightmare was watching him last Friday preach to Europe about the merits of respecting legalities and democracy – closely followed by pictures of anti-abortionists spitting at the Irish Finance Minister when he was trying to speak on the Treaty.

    ... therefore, there is a big question to ask: why is it more democratic to have the result of a referendum run by a bizarre alliance of Libertas, anti-abortionists and Gerry Adams decide the fate of the EU than ratification of the treaty by duly-elected governments? To single-mindedly say: "Yes, it is so because the people have spoken," is to ignore that the people also spoke at the elections, in all EU member states. And those people empowered their governments to make decisions, including the ratification of treaties.

    Why is their will, and their system of government, less democratic? To argue now that the people in other member states are being denied a right given to the Irish people is also daft: if one thing is clear, it is that no one voted on the substance of the treaty since no-one – from the prime minister of Ireland down to the youngest of voters – appeared to have read it.

    Indeed, its very complexity was one of the reasons given for the "no" vote. One of the most basic issues behind discontent with the EU is the democratic deficit. Unfortunately the Irish referendum only increased concerns on this matter rather than clearly showing how EU decision making could be more democratic. For at the end of the day, respecting the will of the people must be an act encompassing the whole and not the part, and the part must show that they have voted for a clear issue rather than a mixed bag of single issue concerns melded into an unholy alliance ..."































  • Timothy Garton Ash: Instead of bullying the Irish, Europe should be working on plan D - and E Comment is free The Guardian

    "...I write as someone who thinks the EU needs the institutional reforms in the Lisbon treaty and regrets that a majority of Irish voters rejected it - from a gallimaufry of motives, it seems, some having little to do with the real content of the treaty. But I was shocked by initial reactions from the German foreign and interior ministers, the tone and implication of which was: silly little Irish voters, go away and come back with the right answer, otherwise we'll have to kick you out into the cold.

    ... That would be right if the EU were a direct democracy; but it isn't a direct democracy, or only in that lesser part of its legitimation that flows through direct elections to the European parliament. The EU - this EU, the only real, existing EU, the best EU we've got - is still mainly an indirect democracy: meaning that each democratic member-state has to reach its own decision in its own way.

    That's time-consuming. As in a convoy, or an extended family, everything takes longer. Slower ships and curmudgeonly cousins must be attended to. But that's exactly what it means to be a European Union, not a hegemon-dominated alliance or a United States of Europe. It's true that, even under the existing treaties, smaller groups of states who want to work more closely together in particular policy areas can do so.

    ... But on the EU's central institutional arrangements and its external relations - the two big things the Lisbon treaty tries to address - this is, as soon as you stop to examine it, a complete non-starter. Worried about the EU being weak and divided, you would end up making it weaker and more divided. Tactically, in any case, this was the worst possible way to respond. Nothing could be better calculated to ensure that the Irish say "no" a second time - assuming their government dares to ask them again, which it's far from certain it will. The contrast with German reactions to the French "no" in 2005 is striking. When the French say "no", Europe has a problem. When Ireland says "no", Ireland has a problem.

    ... and then for the Irish government to come to the European Council in October with suggestions for a package they might take back to change their voters' minds. For example, there might be "explanatory protocols" giving assurances on abortion, Irish neutrality, corporation tax and anything else held to have fed Irish fears.

    ... So we should be thinking of plan E as well. Plan E has three parts. The first is to continue working under the existing treaties. The plain fact is that the enlarged EU of 27 is still functioning "under Nice". It has not ground to a halt, as some predicted. The second part is to see how many of the institutional changes that we really do need - to make an enlarged EU work better, and be more effective in the world - could be implemented without a new grand treaty. I've been asking this question of experts on the legal-institutional workings of the EU over the past few days, and the answer is: a surprisingly large number. I won't bore you with the details, which would make a Jesuit blush, but it turns out that, given ingenuity and political will, things like a more consolidated foreign policy apparatus with a single head could probably be made to happen anyway. Where there's a will there's a way. So this would be what the Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt has called "Nice plus". The third part of plan E is the most important of all. While resolving this decade-long institutional tangle as best we can, we would go on actually doing things that matter to Europeans and to the world. When the new US president is elected this autumn, he should find in his in-tray a memo from Europe spelling out what we see as the biggest challenges in the world and what we propose to do about them.



































  • FT.com / Comment & analysis / Comment - What dream will Europe dream now?

    "... Some readily conclude that it is far too easy to confuse citizens about complicated issues. To them, this is a proof that referendums are intrinsically bad and that treaty approval by stealth is justified. This is a deep misunderstanding of democracy. Our citizens are not confused; they are cynical, and this is a rational response to our leaders’ ­cynicism.

    They vote No to Europe because they do not have any other means to express their displeasure with the way the EU is being run. The only votes that they can cast are for the European parliament, but these elections are really national affairs. We vote for national parties and the campaigns are almost everywhere dominated by domestic issues.

    Citizens do not know much about Europe, simply because there is no public debate about European affairs. They do not care about a treaty that will keep them on the sidelines. The treaty matters greatly for the elites, because it sets the rules by which they play. It is not just complicated; it is not understandable because it does not address the everyday concerns of ordinary citizens. The EU is unique in the world in that some significant chunks of sovereignty have been abandoned by member states for the common good. But this authority has been transferred to un­elected officials, notwithstanding the required nod of approval of the European parliament.

    What kind of a democracy is this, when citizens have no say in the choice of their leaders? Neither the Commission nor its president, who is treated in terms of protocol like a head of state, is chosen as a result of elections in which they ran. The new president of the European Council (the body on which government leaders sit) envisaged in the Lisbon treaty would not be directly elected, either. These figures are selected by heads of governments who were themselves elected for other reasons. No one knows whether the Commission is a legislative or an executive body; strangely, it is both.

    European citizens would not be so cynical if they were regularly invited to choose the people who run European affairs. We need real campaigns, dealing with European issues, just as in national elections. We ought to decide whether we want a presidential regime, in which case citizens should elect the president directly, or whether we prefer a parliamentary regime, in which case we would have an election where pan-European parties competed in order to put forward their designated leaders to run the Commission.

    This would be a normal executive body with whatever powers the member states chose to give it. This is what the European Convention, which produced the infamous constitutional treaty, should have debated. It did not venture in this direction because it well knew that it would have been vetoed by heads of government fearful that a democratically elected European leadership would eat into their powers.

    The convention’s progeny was doomed from the start. Of course, real European elections would take us uncomfortably close to a federal arrangement. The founding fathers sought to avoid this debate, which they knew would divide nations and people within each nation. This “great ambiguity” has worked wonderfully well for half a century, almost like a free lunch. Its costs are now becoming all too visible.

    It may still be too early to resolve this ambiguity. In the meantime, whe­ther the Lisbon treaty is ratified or not, Europe is likely to gravitate toward the mostly economic and monetary arrangement that the anti-federalists always wanted. This may turn out to be the only realistic solution. My generation shared a European dream. It has become a reality, beyond what we had dreamt. The next generations, who take the EU as a fact of life, will have to decide whether they want to dream up something else. One thing is sure: as far as integration is concerned, we are now entering a long period of freeze."






































































  • Fintan O'Toole: The fear factory devastated Ireland's flaccid political class Comment is free The Guardian



    "... What can be said with some confidence is that the Irish vote was shaped by the confluence of two factors. One was the miserable nature of the yes campaign. Every major political party except Sinn Féin (which has just 7% of the vote in the Republic) urged a yes vote, as did the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, the Irish Business and Employers Confederation and, in effect, the Catholic church.

    The assumption seems to have been that Irish voters would simply follow their leaders. The main party campaigns consisted largely of putting up posters with the earnest faces of local or national politicians and bland slogans like "Good for Ireland, Good for Europe". The implicit message was: "This document is complicated and virtually unreadable but, trust us, there's nothing bad in it."

    This strategy betrayed an astonishing ignorance of the way the Irish, in common with most Europeans, currently regard their political class. Trust isn't the most obvious feature of the relationship between governments and the governed.

    ... the sense of disillusionment and betrayal grew. In those circumstances, appealing to trust was a misjudgment that bordered on self-delusion. The benefit of the doubt no longer goes to the establishment. The other decisive factor was, paradoxically, the very incoherence of the no side. It was made up of people who actually can't stand each other.

    There were rightwing Catholics who warned (against the judgment of the Catholic bishops) ... and leftwing liberals who have fought bitterly against those same people ... There were leftwing anti-militarists who warned that the treaty compromised Irish neutrality... And, in the form of Libertas - a mysterious group that emerged from nowhere with a great deal of money to spend - there were people with strong ties to US military contractors. There were campaigners who warned that the European Union would take away the Republic's low corporate tax rates, and activists who portrayed the union as a giant corporate conspiracy. Imported British Euroscepticism from the Irish editions of the Sunday Times and the Daily Mail sat alongside resentment of "foreign" influence from the EU. Logic would seem to suggest that a campaign so riddled with self-contradiction, and so lacking in an agreed alternative vision, ought to be highly ineffective against the big machines of the main political parties.

    In fact the no campaign turned, more by accident than design, into a very efficient factory of fears. It was able to present voters with an extensive menu of anxieties. ...

    ... The turnout for Lisbon was much higher, so repeating the exercise would simply feed the perception that voters are being bullied. In any event, a second vote would have to be on an altered proposition. But to remove most of the things people objected to in the treaty, they would have to have been there in the first place. The treaty's doom, in other words, is probably sealed by the fact that it's not actually as bad as many Irish voters think it is."

































































































  • Richard Delevan: Why Ireland said no Comment is free guardian.co.uk

    "...Campaigners for a yes vote jostled to assign blame. ... Martin said the no vote trend demonstrated a "disconnect between Europe and its people", and that many voters felt "a lack of information". ..."We up here in the elites have the idea that everyone is listening. But it didn't register." The head of Ireland's largest business organisation, Ibec, blamed a no campaign which he said lacked "integrity". Rural areas and working class urban areas turned in strong no votes.

    ...The campaign for a yes vote was up against a tough public mood, but the campaign itself was always on the defensive. ..."











































  • Editorial: The Irish vote must not thwart a better Europe Comment is free The Observer

    "It is catch-22. Without reforming the way it makes decisions, freeing itself to act on global issues that really matter, the European Union will continue to look like a self-serving, arcane bureaucracy. But the EU can't negotiate the devilishly detailed process of reforming itself without resembling the conspiratorial caricature portrayed by its detractors.

    ... But the overarching theme - suspicion of a process that appears to serve elites more than ordinary people - resonates across the Continent. ... European leaders will be desperate to salvage the structural reforms common to both documents aimed at streamlining decision-making and giving the EU a more coherent voice in foreign affairs. Something of that nature, they argue quite rightly, is essential if the Union is to defend its member states' interests in the face of global challenges: climate change, energy dependency on Russia, economic competition from East Asia and international terrorism.

    ... As with any form of public administration, it is probably expecting too much that people will learn to love the EU. But what is extraordinary is how bad national governments have been at explaining why it is necessary - how it has been an overwhelmingly positive force on a continent that spent the centuries before its inception engaged in near-constant, bloody, religious, imperial and ethnic war.

    The peace dividend still pays out. The prospect of EU membership has entrenched and advanced democracy in the strife-strewn Balkans. Croatia, for example, is set to join in 2010. British governments in particular have fostered scepticism by presenting their negotiations in Brussels as heroic defence of the national interest against the forces of pan-Europeanism. British Prime Ministers, including Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, have colluded in the fiction that EU power is something exercised over Britain by Brussels, to be constrained with 'red lines'.

    In fact, EU power is wielded by Britain through Brussels. Decisions made there may adversely affect some sectional interest in British society or help another, farmers, for example, or bankers. But that is what government does.

    If there is a compromise on 'sovereignty' when elected Prime Ministers agree a common position, it is minor compared with the limits on national power imposed by forces of globalisation, as is clear from the current surge in oil prices and the credit crunch. The EU can carry on for a while using existing practice for making decisions. The urgency felt in Brussels to get some version of the Lisbon reforms ratified is understandable - national governments are as fed up as voters with endless technocratic tinkering - but that urgency all too often comes across as arrogance and disrespect for public opinion.

    The reality is that the pro-Europeans have to build their arguments, and possibly their treaty, from scratch. They must point out the ways in which the sceptics have already been proved wrong: on the mighty single currency that doomsayers said would collapse; on enlargement which has brought prosperity to millions of people despite gloomy predictions of nationalist backlash and institutional meltdown; on sovereignty which still resides in national parliaments; and on identity which is undiluted. Ireland is no less Irish for being in the EU, nor Germany less German, nor Britain less British. In Joseph Heller's novel Catch-22, the hero solves his predicament by going Awol. EU leaders do not have that option. They must fight for the project they believe in. They must win the argument for Europe. "













































  • Will Hutton: Europe must not be derailed by lies and disinformation Comment is free The Observer:

    "Battle is going to be joined in earnest because it must. Pro-Europeans everywhere must engage. We need this Europe - to fight climate change, to ensure security of energy and food, to underwrite our prosperity and to fight for our common interests. The world needs it too. The EU is the citizens' friend. If it did not exist, Europe would have to invent something similar. Over the next few months, Europe's leaders are going to have to develop concrete initiatives to support these points and to present what they are doing as European and only possible because of the EU."




























































































































  • Peter Preston: We forget at our peril Comment is free The Guardian:

    "The people who want to rescue Serbia from its past know the perils of narrow nationalism. They - and many like them - need our help because they are striving for something better, sometimes at huge risk. But do we even pause to perceive it? No: European union has become a gravy train of Fleet Street imagining and distant manipulation by men who don't start from where we start or remember what we ought to remember. Don't make them more than a bit of the problem. But don't brush aside how serious their deep unseriousness has become; or underestimate how direly we'll all suffer as this project unravels. Choppy waters on Wall Street? Mountainous seas in the Channel? Let's hope so. Because those who would sink this Europe would have to learn to swim."






















O lago Chade



"Satellite images show Lake Chad one-tenth the size it was in 1972, not even 40 years ago. Lake Chad used to be the world’s sixth-largest lake, but its resources have been diverted for human use or affected by rainfall such that its been almost entirely depleted in a very short amount of time."
- visto em Climate Progress » Blog Archive » Lake Chad now more like Pond Chad.

19 de junho de 2008

Pois é!





“We should act on climate mitigation and adaptation not because we are able to
predict the future, but because we cannot.”




"So wrote Roger A. Pielke Jr.
in an op-ed in the Financial Post, a Canadian newspaper with a doubting stance on dangerous human-caused climate change. Dr. Pielke, a political scientist at the University of Colorado, has long complained that climate scientists have been overstating the reliability of computer simulations projecting how the Earth will respond to rising levels of greenhouse gases. But he has also long advocated for policies that would lead to curbs in emissions."



Até estes já dizem isto! Estou de acordo, como é óbvio - face à incerteza mas com evidência suficiente para substantivar a preocupação, devemos guiar-nos pelo princípio da precaução, e por as "barbas de molho"!


- ver en Acting in an Uncertain Climate - Dot Earth - Climate Change and Sustainability - New York Times Blog

Astronomy Picture of the Day - 19 de Junho: Restos de um encontro violento




The Star Streams of NGC 5907



Explanation: Grand tidal streams of stars seem to surround galaxy NGC 5907. The arcing structures form tenuous loops extending more than 150,000 light-years from the narrow, edge-on spiral, also known as the Splinter or Knife Edge Galaxy. Recorded only in very deep exposures, the streams likely represent the ghostly trail of a dwarf galaxy -- debris left along the orbit of a smaller satellite galaxy that was gradually torn apart and merged with NGC 5907 over four billion years ago. Ultimately this remarkable discovery image, from a small robotic observatory in New Mexico, supports the cosmological scenario in which large spiral galaxies, including our own Milky Way, were formed by the accretion of smaller ones. NGC 5907 lies about 40 million light-years distant in the northern constellation Draco.

- ver em APOD: 2008 June 19 - The Star Streams of NGC 5907, NASA (Arquivo, 19 de Junho de 2008)

Actuação do BCE versus FED

Interessante e cruza com aspectos já referidos neste blogue (ver aqui, aqui e aqui):








  • FT.com / Columnists / Wolfgang Munchau - Trichet justified in diverging from the Fed







    We have been talking about decoupling for a long time. Now it is happening. No, I do not mean that the European or Asian economies are decoupling from the US. The world economy is too interlinked for real economic decoupling to take place. But there is a form of decoupling we are seeing now that we did not see before: monetary policy decoupling.









    In the past, European central bankers tended to follow the US Federal Reserve, often with delay, never perfectly, but generally in the same direction. ... The policy response to our most recent financial crisis has been different. While the Fed cut by an accumulated 325 basis points, the Europeans first refused to follow, and they are now moving in the opposite direction. ... The reason is not a rise in oil or food prices, about which monetary policy can do nothing, but an increase in various measures of inflation expectations. ... By moving in the opposite direction from the Fed, the ECB is providing a much more appropriate domestic policy response than what would have been possible under a national currency regime. The ability to do this constitutes quite possibly one of the biggest economic benefits of the euro. It has not only domestic but global implications. In particular, it limits the Fed’s own room for manoeuvre, something that would have been unthinkable only a few years ago.









    If the Europeans had followed the Americans again, the Fed would probably have been in a position to cut interest rates further. The dollar would not have fallen as much and Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, would not have needed to revert to verbal intervention to prop up the dollar as he did last week. This suggests that in terms of global monetary policy, we are in the middle of a shift from a unipolar to a bipolar world.









    In the past, the Fed’s policy alone used to determine the global monetary policy stance – via the dollar, the global anchor currency. Through long periods of loose monetary policies, including lengthy episodes of negative real interest rates, the Fed contributed directly to the rise in global inflation. I am not referring to the recent commodity price increases but to the trend rise in inflation we have been observing for some time.









    European inflation has also risen as part of this global trend. If the ECB follows the course Mr Trichet appears to have set out, there is now a real possibility that the eurozone, and perhaps some other regions in the world as well, could decouple from this US-led trend. This is what I mean by policy decoupling.









    In theory, an independent central bank, under a floating currency regime, can achieve whatever inflation target it wants, no matter what happens elsewhere. In practice, central banks, even tough-talking ones such as the ECB, make compromises. The ECB would not have raised interest rates if the euro’s exchange rate to the dollar had been at $1.70, or if the economy looked as though it were to fall into a black hole. ... On its own, it will not get eurozone inflation back towards target over the next couple of years. For my taste, the ECB has moved too hesitantly and a little late. But at least it has been moving in the right direction.









    The policy goal of the Fed, meanwhile, appears to be avoidance of recession and minimising distress in the financial system. Price stability, which also ranks as one official goal in the Fed’s mandate, seems to be pursued by means of sanctimonious speeches, rather than policy action. As monetary policy of the world’s two largest economies moves in starkly opposite directions, interesting possibilities are opening up.









    One is whether the dollar will decline prematurely as a global currency – an issue on which economists are divided. Differential inflation rates could plausibly trigger such a shift. As US inflation rises, more and more countries may unpeg from the dollar to avoid imported inflation. If this trend persisted, the US would risk losing its exorbitant privilege – the ability to live beyond its means thanks to a globally domineering currency. This is not a forecast. It is a scenario conditional on policy choices. The central bank of Turkey last week responded to the rise in inflation by raising the inflation target. That is one way of dealing with the problem but not a credible one. Alternatively, you can stick to your target under adverse circumstances. The ECB is trying to do the latter. I suspect it will subsequently be seen as the better response.

Referendo irlandês: o sim, sem convicção e sem política! (III)

(continuação)


















Mais artigos sobre o referendo irlandês (ver aqui e aqui). A maioria são do Guardian (Comment is free). A ordem temporal da publicação dos artigos não foi respeitada, e a sua escolha não implica que esteja de acordo com tudo aquilo que dizem. Vou continuar a apresentar mais artigos sobre o mesmo:




















  • AC Grayling: Fear trumps hope Comment is free guardian.co.uk




    A kind of inevitability attaches to the partially true things that have been and will be said about the meaning of the Irish rejection of the EU treaty.




    A summary of one of them might go like this: the Irish referendum is a sparkling example of democracy in action, say some. Say others: 1% of the EU population screwing things up for the other 99%? Sparkling indeed, especially given that Ireland (along with Portugal) has been the greatest beneficiary of EU membership, as anyone who remembers Ireland just a couple of decades ago will testify, with still-continuing astonishment at the transformation into today's brilliant country. ...as they have with the likelihood that the rest of the EU will find a way round the problem somehow, although probably not with recourse (as the Irish no voters perfectly well knew) of saying, OK then, leave.




    ...The real lesson of the referendum is that fear is always a more saleable political commodity than hope. ... . An Irish businessman called Ganley can orchestrate a campaign on fears of loss of sovereignty and the "remoteness" of Brussels etc in the staring face of the EU's benefits to Ireland, knowing that the number of people among the 53% no voters (about 30% of the electorate?) who had actually read the treaty is probably way less than 10. Good work, Ganley. And your business will continue to prosper – because you're in the EU! Fear has its limits.




    ... Of course these are different kinds of fears: but the appeal to them is an appeal to the natural self-protective and preserve-the-status-quo instincts we all have. The problem is that the messages are always painfully simplistic: safety, security, "sovereignty", "remoteness of Brussels" - and whereas they all have varying degrees of point, the question is not that degree itself but its relation to the benefits and costs of acting one or another way in response. Mature societies accept certain risks for their freedoms; countries in relation to others in the EU accept the costs as offset by the benefits - which for some, not least for Ireland, are sometimes vast. It is a matter of choice, but not the kind that can be made on the basis of slogans.




    ...Reality has its own way of dealing with hopes and rhetoricians. But if you were to put money on which message is likely to be the more potent, the odds would be short indeed.












  • Denis MacShane: The Irish vote has bust open some myths of Europe Comment is free guardian.co.uk



    Hooray for the Irish! The victory by Gerry Adams, the Irish Socialist Workers' party and their millionaire friends has forced the debate about Europe into the open. Britain's moneyed elites who pay for Open Europe along with the media elites of London and the Conservative party are now poised to begin the building down of Europe.



    Some myths need to be dispelled. ... President Sarkozy of France was handsomely elected on a platform of supporting the treaty and defying his opponents who made their call for a referendum a core part of the 2007 election campaign in France. ... Similarly, the new Polish government was elected on a strong pro-Lisbon platform in place of the Eurosceptic Kaczynski administration. ... . The Spanish have voted twice in favour of Europe – once in a 2005 referendum and again this March, when the pro-Treaty socialist government was re-elected.







    ... Another myth is that this vote is some kind of a surprise. Every opinion poll in Britain for the last 30 years has shown a majority against the EU. Yet in elections, voters do not elect anti-European parties, as Labour discovered to its cost when it espoused anti-European lines in the 1980s. A third myth is that the Irish voted specifically on the Lisbon treaty. Yet issues like abortion, Irish neutrality, taxation and other concerns that have nothing to do with the treaty were at the forefront of the campaign



    How then to reconcile these two competing visions of democracy? Which is more democratic – the Irish plebiscite in which almost all voters seen on television confessed they did not understand the treaty just as much of the legislation passed in the Commons is hard to fathom. A dreadful headache is guaranteed for anyone who tries to decipher the 500 pages of single-spaced typing in Britain's annual finance bill that translates the budget into law. If Britain had a referendum on the finance bill it would be child's play to get a no vote. Yet by any definition the 45% of national income taken from the people by the state is more important than the 1% of Europe's gross national income that flows to Brussels. So we elect parliaments to settle the finance bill and to agree the myriad of international treaties, under which Britain shares sovereignty with other countries.



    ... Finding a way forward will not be easy. Europe that cannot or does not want to defend and explain itself may soon start to move backwards, with the gradual loss of open frontiers, open trade and the only region in the world where social and environmental rights are advocated powerfully. ... .Is it what Britain needs? In that sense the Irish have done us a favour. If pro-Europeans roll over and Labour ministers fail to find any enthusiasm for Europe, then last Thursday's vote could be the first steps in the slow detachment of the British island nations from the EU.









  • Hugo Brady: The era of the grand treaty is over Comment is free guardian.co.uk


    Ireland has sent Europe into tumult by garrotting the Lisbon treaty at the ballot box. The possibility of resuscitating the treaty is slight. Given the large turnout, a second referendum on the text is likely to be ruled out by Irish politicians as unfeasible. Wholesale renegotiation is not on the agenda: the EU has had more than seven years of interminable talk about institutions and rules already.


    ... It is time for EU countries to think the unthinkable: integration by grand treaty is over. ... But the global issues that the Lisbon treaty was designed to help Europeans address will not go away. Immediate priorities like the global economic downturn, high unemployment, climate change, uncertainty over energy supplies, migration and cross-border crime need to be tackled collectively and soon.


    ... Institutions matter. Although they are not perfect, they are the way Europeans work together. From time to time they will always need tweaking. Hence for now governments will have to limit themselves to less ambitious ways of reforming the EU to make it work better.


    The first is to make the best use of the Nice treaty, the EU's current rulebook. Article 42 of the Nice treaty also allows for the EU as a whole to take a much greater, and more accountable, role in dealing with cross-border crime and migration issues, if every member-state agrees. The treaty also allows for groups of countries (a minimum of eight) to press ahead without others in almost any policy area, provided the single market is unaffected. In practice this happens already with the EU passport-free travel area, the euro and defence policy. Successful initiatives among smaller groups will draw others in. The EU has major foreign policy challenges: a resurgent Russia, a rising China and the priority to present a united front to a newly elected US president in 2009. The Lisbon treaty would have created a quasi-diplomatic corps for the EU by merging various bits of the Brussels bureaucracy to improve the design and delivery of EU foreign policy at home and abroad. Arguably, this innovation can also go ahead without treaty change. Looked at closely, it is uncontroversial.


    The second is to pursue future integration issue by issue, in terms people can better understand. National parliaments and the public are suspicious of grand treaties because they sniff a conspiracy to build a European super-state. But single-issue treaties – on democracy, energy, or climate change for example – would have clearer benefits. Such "salami-style" treaties would also improve the chances that national debates will stick to the text of the deal in question without introducing unrelated issues as a reason to say no.


    Lastly, the EU will have to undertake some reform of its institutions if Croatia is to join sometime around 2010. Governments have to agree an accession treaty with Croatia to adjust the size of the European institutions for its entry. In the treaty, they should also introduce a fairer EU voting system and a number of extra measures to boost accountability. These include allowing national parliaments to block intrusive EU laws, an initiative to allow citizens to directly petition legislation and an expansion of the powers of the European parliament to hold the governments and commission to account.


    As in Ireland's referendum, the people can give up on politicians. But politicans cannot give up serving the interests of the people. Europeans are a declining political and economic force in the world today. Across a range of global challenges, we simply do not have the luxury of going it alone. ...






  • Editorial: EU reform - unloved, thrice rejected Comment is free The Guardian

    ... It [o governo irlandês] let the referendum on the Lisbon treaty become the hostage of general public discontent. ... . It was an odd time to be asking Irish voters to trust their leaders. But yesterday's referendum was all about trust - and the Irish political elite, the French and the Dutch elites before them (and, one would suspect, the British) notably failed the test.

    It mattered not that the Lisbon treaty leaves the position on tax harmonisation, neutrality or abortion unchanged. All that mattered was those businessmen wary of losing their low corporation tax, or those worried that Ireland was sleepwalking into a superstate with its own army, had a platform wide enough to accommodate ultra-rightwing Catholics, neoliberals, pragmatic Eurosceptics, traditional nationalists, and Trotskyists. ...

    ... The Irish rejection was so emphatic yesterday, with 53.4% against 46.6% in favour, that Mr Cowen can hardly go back to the people and ask them to think again, as happened over the Nice treaty in 2002. Then the excuse for the wrong answer the first time round was low turnout. That trick will not work again. The alternative, as Mr Barroso suggested, is for the remaining states to forge ahead and leave Ireland to work out its own relationship with the Lisbon arrangements.

    This, too, is fraught with problems, as Ireland has already opted out of large chunks of the treaty, such as defence, justice and home affairs. It is not clear what more it could derogate from. ...

    In the longer term, however, the prospects of creating a Europe with a strong voice and distinct leadership are darker this morning than they were yesterday. .... If integration by grand constitution is dead, and integration by small treaty in a rut, business will be conducted by smaller groups of countries. This is not a union that will find it easy to accept Turkey as a member, defend its common interests against Russia, or speak with one voice about the Middle East, global warming or trade. But it is the union we have now got.

(continua)

18 de junho de 2008

Referendo irlandês: o sim, sem convicção e sem política! (II)

Abaixo, uma colectânea de artigos sobre o referendo irlandês (são principalmente do Coment is free do Guardian e do Financial Times) - a minha última nota sobre o assunto pode ser vista aqui e cruza com muito daquilo que é dito nestes artigos (embora, não concorde com tudo o que é dito e, no caso de alguns - poucos - artigos, a minha discordância é total: ficam todos para futura referência). Vou apresentar ainda, pelo menos, outra nota com artigos sobre o mesmo.






















  • Shirley Williams: An Irish wake-up call Comment is free The Guardian.





    ...The Irish referendum result was not just about the treaty. It was an opportunity for voters to express their resentment about many things: .... But none of these are good reasons for dismissing the vote. It represents, from the country that has benefited most from the EU since it joined in 1973, the disturbing gap between public opinion and European leaders.





    ... By any standard, the EU has been a success. It has brought the free movement of goods, services and people to nearly 500 million citizens. It has brought democracy, an independent judiciary and the rule of law to former dictatorships - without war or loss of life. It is the world's largest source of development finance and foremost humanitarian aid donor. But it has failed to win the affection of many Europeans.





    So what is to be done? The European Council, meeting later this week, should launch two working groups with a remit to report back by the end of the year, one to see what elements of the Lisbon treaty that were needed to make the enlarged union function efficiently could be introduced by cooperation between governments.





    ... More effective scrutiny of EU legislation, to ensure the principle of subsidiarity is respected, could be achieved by closer cooperation between parliaments. .... The second working group would propose steps to reduce the volume of EU legislation, simplify contorted language and provide explanatory memoranda.





    At least as important, the council should invite each member to report on what steps it has taken to include education in citizenship, both national and European, in school curriculums.





    UK citizens know very little about how the union works or what it has done. The UK has long been a semi-detached EU member. The media rarely report anything from Brussels except scandal and scare stories. The government has never seriously tried to rebut these, nor to set out the vision of a free and prosperous Europe.





    In the Irish referendum, stories that the EU would impose permissive abortion laws on the republic, or jeopardise its neutrality swayed some votes. That is a reason to take seriously the EU's inability to get the facts across. And that is the lesson the European elites neglect at their peril.





    Paradoxically, the Lisbon treaty made moves towards greater accountability to both European and national parliaments. It was careful to recognise members' historic legacies, like Nato membership, and allowed the UK to exclude itself from whole sections of the treaty. In all these respects, it was a considerable improvement on Nice and Maastricht, neither of which were subject to a UK referendum. But all of us have to take the democratic deficit seriously if the EU is to realise its potential for good in our troubled world.





















  • FT.com / Columnists / Wolfgang Munchau - Europe’s plan B for the Lisbon treaty



    ...I personally found last week’s Irish No vote shocking, not in terms of what it means for the EU, but what it says about Ireland. Ireland is one of the EU’s great success stories. Dublin has become one of the great European cities. Both Ireland and the EU should have celebrated their relationship.



    ... Why am I so confident that the Lisbon treaty is going to be implemented? Because, contrary to widespread protestations, Europe’s leaders actually have a plan B. ... suggested on Saturday that one way to implement the treaty was for Ireland to withdraw temporarily from the process of European integration.



    ...What then? Ireland could then hold a second referendum. One possibility would be to ask the same question again, but it is difficult to see what should produce a different result. Ireland has already opted out of everything it wanted to opt out of. It is difficult to formulate any specific concessions, since nobody knows what the Irish electorate wants. This suggests that the Irish problem may not be fixable through a simple declaration by the other member states. A renegotiation of the treaty is out of the question.



    ... So the treaty of Lisbon will be implemented one way or the other, but only if the other 26 countries continue to ratify. Otherwise, all bets are off. The biggest losers from this fiasco will be the Irish themselves. They brought the country to the brink in its relations with the EU at a time when the economy is facing the most severe crisis in living memory. I shudder to think how foreign investors are going to react, given how much Ireland relies on them for its prosperity. Faced with this situation, the strategy most likely to be successful from the perspective of the rest of the EU is to play hardball. This is plan B.









  • FT.com / Columnists / Philip Stephens - Stop talking about Lisbon and get to work





    ...Does anyone really care about how Europe organises itself? Do not misunderstand. The Lisbon treaty – and the constitutional treaty before it – is not the document of eurosceptic nightmare. The claim of British Conservatives – and of many on the No side in the Irish referendum campaign – that it represents a decisive assault on the sovereignty of nation states is a delusion born of another age.


    The essence of the European enterprise remains an understanding that the continent’s states can better advance their national interests through co-operation rather than competition. Nowhere is that more obvious than in places such as Beijing. Only when Europe speaks with something like one voice are others ready to pay attention.


    That said, the Union has moved beyond the federalist dreams of its founding fathers. The high point was the Maastricht treaty at the beginning of the 1990s. One of the things that has struck me about the debate ever since is how both the advocates and opponents of a European superstate make the same basic mistake. If ever there was a possibility that the EU would replace national identities with a European identity, it was lost with the fall of the Berlin Wall. A Union of 27 simply does not lend itself to uniformity.


    .... Institutions do matter in Europe, and the Lisbon treaty includes some useful changes. ... These gains, though, are wholly disproportionate to the political energy that has been invested in the constitutional project. The Union cannot continue squabbling about its institutional arrangements while the world moves on without it.





    We know that this new world will be multipolar. Europe’s prosperity and security depend on it also remaining open and multilateral. ... The bold promise of a strategic partnership with Russia has thus far been mirrored by divisions within the Union on the terms of the relationship with Moscow. Few things illustrate more clearly the need for Europe to act as one than the Kremlin’s divide-and-rule strategy on energy security. ... Fine words on climate change must not be lost to economic turbulence. ... Europe’s interest lies above all in persuading it to become a responsible stakeholder in the multilateral system. And if Brussels stops talking about Lisbon, they might actually pay attention in Beijing.






  • Parag Khanna and Alpo Rusi: The EU's destiny is to lead the world on security, trade and climate change Comment is free The Guardian
    This past week saw not only the Irish rejection of the Lisbon treaty, forcing a crisis summit this week to chart an alternative path to EU continuity, but also the annual EU-American summit in Slovenia, aiming to forge a common transatlantic agenda on Middle East peace, climate change and trade. The Irish vote is likely to fuel rumours of the EU's demise, yet it is the latter summit that will prove more revealing about its future. While mending transatlantic divides is commendable, the summit presents an opportunity to rectify misperceptions about the US leading and Europe following on global issues. No matter who occupies the White House, the actual trend is the reverse. On May 23 in Brasilia, a treaty was signed to establish Unasur, the South American union of nations. It was the most recent example of the real geopolitical revolution that has been under way since the end of the second world war: the regionalisation of international relations on the precedent set by the six nations who established the Treaty of Rome, which became the European Economic Community in 1957.
    ...A world of regions still needs leadership, but not necessarily a single leader. While many have fretted that Europe follows the US without providing an alternative course, in fact the EU has been providing this model for decades, and it is bearing fruit around the developing world, despite the US's post-9/11 actions, which have served only to discredit the west. Today the EU provides more than itself as an institutional model. Its emissions trading system is the world's leading carbon market and a model progressive US voices yearn to replicate. It is the largest aid donor and market for goods from developing countries.
    ...Europe has become the gold standard for creating such institutions, and is far better poised than the US to be the arbiter of disputes among them. A future concert of powers among the US, China and EU - capable of setting basic global standards and leveraging the adherence of other major powers such as Russia and India - is a vision with which Americans should be familiar, for it resembles Roosevelt's "Four Policemen". ... But among these three, the EU has the most credibility today, and must ensure that the other two do not return the 21st century to the 19th.
    (Continua)









Portugal e as energias renováveis - uma perspectiva de fora

Interessante, mas um tanto ou quanto inesperado (amplitude e intensidade do que está a ser feito) - apesar da credibilidade que atribuo àquilo que Sócrates, até prova em contrário, reivindica nesta (como em outras) matérias. Tenham em atenção:




  • The world’s largest solar photovoltaic farm is strangely beautiful... By 2020, Portugal plans to generate over a third of its energy from renewables, with that percentage increasing every year. The farm, located high on the Alantejo Plain near the small town of Mouro, will be twice as large as any other project of its kind.

    The world's biggest wind farm also lies in Northern Portugal, with more than 130 turbines. Portugal’s plans for wave power are sparking interest around the globe, as well. Currently, the world's first commercial wave farm is being assembled near Porto. These "sea snakes", developed by the Edinburgh-based company Pelamis, will shortly be towed out to sea and will start pumping electricity into the grid later this year.

    Portugal has already made its mark as a world leader in switching to clean energy. Why? Partly because unlike other developed countries, Portugal doesn't have an economy dominated by coal, gas and uranium extraction industries.

    Portugal is leading the European clean-tech revolution, and economics minister Manuel Pinho hopes that this is just a start. He recently told UK’s Guardian that Portugal looks forward to a potentially giant global investment into clean energy tech.
    - ver em The Renewable Revolution: World's Biggest Solar Farm Is About to Open—Is the End of Oil Near?

Dúvidas...



- ver em Ha! (The Daily Galaxy)

17 de junho de 2008

Astronomy Picture of the Day - 17 de Junho: Eta Carinae


Eta Carinae and the Homunculus Nebula


Explanation: How did the star Eta Carinae create this unusual nebula? No one knows for sure. About 165 years ago, the southern star Eta Carinae mysteriously became the second brightest star in the night sky. In 20 years, after ejecting more mass than our Sun, Eta Car unexpected faded. This outburst appears to have created the Homunculus Nebula, pictured above in a composite image from the Hubble Space Telescope taken last decade. Visible in the above image center is purple-tinted light reflected from the violent star Eta Carinae itself. Surrounding this star are expanding lobes of gas laced with filaments of dark dust. Jets bisect the lobes emanating from the central star. Surrounding these lobes are red-tinted debris captured only by its glow in a narrow band of red light. This debris is expanding most quickly of all, and includes streaming whiskers and bow shocks caused by collisions with previously existing material. Eta Car still undergoes unexpected outbursts, and its high mass and volatility make it a candidate to explode in a spectacular supernova sometime in the next few million years.

- ver em Astronomy Picture of the Day, NASA (Arquivo, 17 de Junho de 2008)

14 de junho de 2008

Referendo irlandês: o sim, sem convicção e sem política!

Infelizmente sucedeu. Não que fosse uma surpresa: havia indícios fortes, e já há alguns meses, que tal pudesse suceder - ver aqui e aqui. Não sei como é que o problema irá ser resolvido - a União continua e o processo de enraizamento (sócio-económico) do projecto da construção europeia irá prosseguir e, eventualmente, a própria inércia (momento) do que foi posto em marcha ao longo destas últimas décadas será o suficiente para ultrapassar este mau bocado.


Mas, o certo é que a União Europeia necessita de uma estrutura institucional adequada que escore melhor, nomeadamente, a União Económica e Monetária (o euro); sem mais aprofundamento (deepening) institucional não será possível a continuação do alargamento (e.g., a entrada da Turquia). O Tratado de Lisboa não resolve de modo adequado todos os problemas, mas é o que é possível neste momento, e vai no bom sentido - a sua não aprovação introduz linhas de fragilidade adicionais no sistema europeu que podem ser significativas a médio prazo ou em presença de crises inesperadas.




Nós necessitamos mais do que nunca de uma União Europeia à altura dos desafios (medonhos) que se perfilam no curto e médio prazo - são desafios insusceptíveis de serem resolvidos de modo eficaz e eficiente pelos estados europeus, tomados isoladamente, nem mesmo por um qualquer sistema europeu de coordenação político-económico lasso e pouco estruturado. Esta explicação é (deveria ser), relativamente fácil de fazer. No entanto, as elites políticas europeias têm sido incapazes na tarefa.


A legitimação do processo de construção europeia (ver aqui) - educação, formação e informação políticas - não tem sido, pelo menos, tentada, de modo sistemático, convicto, político, com um sentido estratégico. Por isso, os políticos - os generais - quando necessitam dos cidadãos - os soldados - não os têm, ou se os têm, têm-nos despreparados. Logo, quando se chega ao momento de dar uma resposta, de actuar tácticamente, como sucedeu agora na Irlanda, é o completo desastre - face à demagogia e à mentira - e, segundo parece, à intervenção do inefável John Bolton -, não há resposta, há incapacidade de desmontar as atordoadas; perante um desafio político de primeira linha para o país e para um continente, o que se faz? Distribui-se prospectos e folhetos (ver abaixo um extracto de um artigo do FT). Os partidos políticos europeus não poderiam ter intervido?


A convicção e a militância políticas estão de um lado; do outro está o enfado burocrata (tecnocrata) de despachar um eleição com um mínimo de trabalho político ou, dito de outra forma, o trabalho político é reconduzido à passeata, ao sorriso, ao folheto. O problema é geral; atinge toda a actuação política, em todas as áreas; é mais visível, no entanto, na área da construção europeia - é um bom tema de reflexão: o saber a razão porque as fragilidades da actuação política nas democracias europeias têm um afloramento mais visível neste particular.






Aquilo que este excerto do FT relata é, a este respeito, exemplar. Vejam (note-se, contudo, que em outras situações, na Irlanda, se espera ser o trabalho político mais do que distribuir folhetos):












  • FT.com / Quentin Peel / Between The Lines - Complex treaty cools passions of faithful


    "But is it too late to save the treaty? The most formidable political machine in Ireland – Fianna Fáil, the party that has ruled for all but a handful of years since independence – has finally geared up in the past few days. The prospect of a humiliating defeat only weeks after electing Brian Cowen as their new leader and Taoiseach (prime minister) has got the faithful moving.


    Yet there is a curious lack of passion. One reason is that traditional party workers are uncomfortable with the sheer complexity of the Lisbon treaty. “Guys don’t want to go out canvassing in their own parish on a subject they don’t understand,” says Mark Hennessy, political correspondent of the Irish Times. “They are afraid they will look foolish in front of the neighbours. So they have been doing no more than handing out leaflets.” Fianna Fáil is a party built on local connections, not ideology. People are loyal because the party delivers, with jobs and contracts. None of that seems relevant to a technical EU treaty about institutional reform."

13 de junho de 2008

Regulação da produção alimentar (EUA)

Um comentário menos pensado, menos informado, menos inteligente, feito a propósito da intervenção da ASAE, por alguns intelectuais do primeiro plano do panorama português, foi o de não necessitarem de intervenções paternalistas por parte do Estado no domínio da alimentação - um comentário ao disparate fica para outra altura, mas este artigo de Krugman pode ficar já como referência para isso e serve para ilustrar, mais um vez, um aspecto pouco conhecido da imbecilidade ideológica da direita norte-americana e da Administração Bush. Um excerto (para induzir a leitura):


  • Op-Ed Columnist - Paul Krugman - Bad Cow Disease - Op-Ed - NYTimes.com
    Lately, however, there always seems to be at least one food-safety crisis in the headlines — tainted spinach, poisonous peanut butter and, currently, the attack of the killer tomatoes. .... How did America find itself back in The Jungle?

    It started with ideology. Hard-core American conservatives have long idealized the Gilded Age, regarding everything that followed — not just the New Deal, but even the Progressive Era — as a great diversion from the true path of capitalism.

    Thus, when Grover Norquist, the anti-tax advocate, was asked about his ultimate goal, he replied that he wanted a restoration of the way America was “up until Teddy Roosevelt, when the socialists took over. The income tax, the death tax, regulation, all that.”

Diversos sobre ambiente, energia e aquecimento global















  • I'm melting Gristmill: The environmental news blog Grist. As outras consequências do desaparecimento do gelo no Árctico:
    "In other words, if it continues, the recent trend in sea ice loss may triple Arctic warming, causing large emissions in carbon dioxide and methane from the tundra this century. What is especially worrisome is that 2007 provides strong evidence on behalf of this theory:
    NOAA reported that methane levels rose in 2007 for the first time since 1998 (see here).

    The tundra can emit vast amounts of methane when it defrosts (see Part 1).

    Scientific analysis suggests the rise in 2007 methane levels came from Arctic wetlands (see here).

    And 2007 saw record Arctic ice loss (see "Ice, ice, maybe (not)")."
























  • Climate Progress » Blog Archive » Global warming causes deluges and flooding, just like the Midwest is seeing (again) (ver gráfico acima).



    2007 saw the second most extreme precipitation over the United States in the historical record, according to NCDC’s Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Here is a plot of the percentage of this country (times two) with much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme 1-day precipitation events (where extreme equals the highest tenth percentile of deluges): The U.S. Climate Extremes Index was explicitly created to take a complicated subject (”multivariate and multidimensional climate changes in the United States“) and make it more easily understood by American citizens and policy makers.



    As far back as 1995,
    analysis by the National Climatic Data Center showed that over the course of the 20th century, the United States had suffered a statistically significant increase in a variety of extreme weather events, the very ones you would expect from global warming, such as more — and more intense — precipitation. That analysis concluded the chances were only “5 to 10 percent” this increase was due to factors other than global warming, such as “natural climate variability.” And since 1995, the climate has gotten much more extreme.








  • Climate Progress » Blog Archive » Must read IEA report, Part 1: Act now with clean energy or face 6°C warming. Cost is NOT high — media blows the story

    "When the normally conservative International Energy Agency (IEA) agrees with both the middle of the road IPCC and more … progressive voices like Climate Progress, it should be time for the world to get very serious, very fast on the clean energy transition. "

    "... the real news from the global energy agency is:

    Failing to act very quickly to transform the planet’s energy system puts us on a path to catastrophic outcomes. The investment required is “an average of some 1.1% of global GDP each year from now until 2050. This expenditure reflects a re-direction of economic activity and employment, and not necessarily a reduction of GDP.” In fact, this investment partly pays for itself in reduced energy costs alone (not even counting the pollution reduction benefits)!


  • The world is on the brink of a renewables (and efficiency) revolution. [ver gráfico acima].
    Probably the biggest difference between the IEA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration is that the EIA lives in a fantasy world where oil production can continue growing forever and greenhouse gas emissions are not something an energy agency needs to factor into planning. The IEA, however, lives in the real world, as its new report makes painfully clear:
    Unsustainable pressure on natural resources and on the environment is inevitable if energy demand is not de-coupled from economic growth and fossil fuel demand reduced.
    The situation is getting worse…. Baseline scenario foreshadow a 70% increase in oil demand by 2050 and a 130% rise in CO2 emissions…. a rise in CO2 emissions of such magnitude could raise global average temperatures by 6°C (eventual stabilisation level), perhaps more. The consequences would be significant change in all aspects of life and irreversible change in the natural environment. In short, business as usual energy policy leads to atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 1000 parts per million or more, and that is the end of life as we know it on this planet (See “Is 450 ppm politically possible? Part 0: The alternative is humanity’s self-destruction“).


  • "Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun Murti predicted the recent spike in oil prices, so it’s worth looking at his recent interview in Barron’s"

Aquecimento global e as novas oportunidades

- visto em VJ Gristmill: The environmental news blog Grist.