Astronomy Picture of the Day - 2009 November 29: Onde fica?

Ancient Layered Hills on Mars Credit: Malin Space Science Systems, MOC, MGS, JPL, NASA 

(clicar na fotografia para aumentar)

Explanation: Is this a picture of Mars or Earth? Oddly enough, it is a picture of Mars. What may appear to some as a terrestrial coastline is in fact a formation of ancient layered hills and wind-blown sand on Mars. The above-pictured region spans about three kilometers in Schiaparelli Crater. What created the layers of sediment is still a topic of research. Viable hypotheses include ancient epochs of deposit either from running water or wind-blown sand. Winds and sandstorms have smoothed and eroded the structures more recently. The 'water' that appears near the bottom is actually dark colored sand. The image was taken with the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft that operated around Mars from 1996-2006 and returned over 200,000 images."

Astronomy Picture of the Day: NASA (Archive, 2009 November 29)

Evolução: os 150 anos da "Origem das Espécies"

Evolution of Evolution: 150 Years of Darwin’s “On the Origin of Species” « Climate Progress: "Here’s something else I’m thankful for: Science. Evolution NSF Charles Darwin’s seminal work, On the Origin of Species, was published on 150 years ago this week, November 24, 1859. [...]

E continua ... Anomalias, James Hansen e as consequências do (eventual) colapso da Corrente do Golfo

"Figure 1: Reconstructed surface temperature anomaly for Medieval Warm Period (950 to 1250 A.D.). Temperature anomalies are defined relative to the 1961– 1990 reference period mean. Gray areas indicates regions where adequate temperature data are unavailable.

Figure 2: Reconstructed surface temperature anomaly for Little Ice Age (1400 to 1700 A.D.). Temperature anomalies are defined relative to the 1961– 1990 reference period mean. Gray areas indicates regions where adequate temperature data are unavailable."

 

• Was there a Medieval Warm Period?: "The Medieval Warm Period spanned 950 to 1250 AD and corresponded with warmer temperatures in certain regions. During this time, ice-free seas allowed the Vikings to colonize Greenland. North America experienced prolonged droughts. So just how hot was the Medieval Warm Period? Was it warmer than now? A new paper Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly (Mann et al 2009) (see here for press release) addresses this question, focusing on regional temperature change during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age."

• Climate Feedback: Interview with NRCC: James Hansen: "In an exclusive interview published today on Nature Reports Climate Change, climate scientist James Hansen talks about his forthcoming book, Storms of My Grandchildren. Arguably the world’s most famous climate scientist, and Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York, Hansen’s conviction that a climate catastrophe is looming has led him, in recent years, to increasingly take on the role of advocate, sending numerous pleading letters to world leaders and CEOs, and attending well-publicized protests against coal plants.[...]"

• Climate change: Gulf stream collapse could be like a disaster movie | Environment | The Observer: "Gulf stream collapse could be like a disaster movie Scientists predict an ice age could be provoked in a matter of months"
  

Portugal: quo vadis?

• arquivo: Juntos, contra |Pedro Adão e Silva: 

"Durante muito tempo ouvimos vozes de todo o espectro político a insurgirem-se contra a ausência de protecção no desemprego de muitos portugueses. A indignação é justa, mas choca com os limites ao financiamento dos apoios sociais. Com um sistema baseado numa lógica de seguro social, a protecção depende dos descontos prévios e da massa salarial sobre a qual incidem. Subverter esta lógica pode ser muito popular, mas é, no mínimo, financeiramente irresponsável. O problema é tanto mais sério quanto Portugal combina níveis de participação no mercado de trabalho muito elevados com uma grande precariedade do emprego – que encontra poucos paralelos na Europa. Acontece que à precariedade não estão apenas associados níveis remuneratórios mais baixos e menor segurança no emprego, mas também, frequentemente, ausência de protecção no desemprego. [...]"

Continuar a ler no link indicado acima (obrigatório).

• O tempo esgotou-se | Económico:

"A economia portuguesa está certamente a atravessar uma das suas fases mais difíceis dos últimos sessenta anos.Não se trata aqui de dramatizar mas de apelar ao realismo.

A componente mais nítida desta dificuldade é a não sustentabilidade do caminho que seguimos nos últimos doze anos, cujo desenlace pode bem ocorrer num prazo não muito longo. Efectivamente, uma das poucas coisas de que poderemos ter a certeza é que os próximos doze anos (e provavelmente os próximos seis) não poderão ser iguais aos passados. Isto por uma razão óbvia: é que simplesmente não haverá financiamento externo para sustentar sequer o magro crescimento da última década, porque ninguém emprestará a bancos ou empresas de um país com 150% ou 200% do PIB de dívida externa. Se e quando este financiamento se evaporar a economia e sociedade portuguesas entrarão numa situação de que mais vale não falar, mas que fará da crise de 1983-84 uma brincadeira de crianças. [...]"

Continuar a ler no link indicado acima.

Correlação significativa?

Weights of the average American turkey and human male: Fattened up | The Economist

Enfim, ... nada que não se saiba de há muito

"[...] A direita nacionalista e a esquerda radical, nas suas diversas variantes, compartilham o mesmo espírito antieuropeísta. Por mais benefícios que traga aos cidadãos europeus, tudo o que se traduza em mais integração europeia é, para eles, intrinsecamente maléfico. Não admira que também tenham convergido na rejeição do Tratado de Lisboa."

Ler em  Causa Nossa: "Chocante, Vital Moreira"

De regresso à educação no país

Muito barulho para nada | Pedro Adão e Silva | Económico:

"Convém recordar algumas coisas. Em primeiro lugar, os professores estiveram em guerra por causa da avaliação, mas, muito provavelmente, esta foi um pretexto para mitigar a verdadeira causa da luta: a divisão da carreira docente, com a criação do 'professor titular' (o que colocava fim às progressões automáticas, limitando o acesso aos níveis salariais mais elevados, e confrontava a natureza horizontal da carreira). 

Depois, os professores são a maior classe profissional da administração pública e mais de metade dos cerca de 140 mil está nos escalões mais bem remunerados - a massa salarial consome 80% do orçamento, correspondendo a 3% do PIB; ao que acresce que, se nada for feito, o ritmo de crescimento da despesa com salários consumirá todos os recursos disponíveis para a política educativa.  

 [...]

A questão será, por isso, saber até onde é que vai o recuo. Todos os partidos defendem o acesso ao topo da carreira sem restrições. Resta saber se as negociações em curso acabarão apenas com o nome 'professor titular' ou se, mudando o nome, se mantém o acesso limitado ao último escalão da carreira. Esta é a primeira linha de fronteira, mas há outras: o prolongamento dos horários e as aulas de substituição. 

No fim, fica uma certeza. Cinco anos passados, muitos erros na gestão política e na aplicação do modelo de avaliação depois, preparamo-nos para voltar ao lugar em que nos encontrávamos em 2005, mas em piores condições. Ou seja, a carreira de professor continuará a beneficiar de um estatuto excepcional, o que limita os recursos financeiros para o investimento na escola pública. A inabilidade do anterior governo é, em parte, causa desta situação. Agora, como se não bastasse, todos os partidos preparam-se para assumir a sua quota parte de responsabilidade."

Um dia destes falo de novo sobre a questão da educação para qualificar coisas que disse, à luz do que fui ouvindo, e do que fui lendo, mas para já aceito como correcto, ao nível de generalidade em que foi escrito, aquilo que é dito acima. Aceitando, com algumas precisões, os objectivos do que Sócrates tentou fazer na educação: não à progressão automática (não é o mesmo do que quotas); sim à avaliação; sim às aulas de substituição (mas com criatividade da parte de todos), etc. etc, considero que, no entanto, os erros cometidos são mais do que erros de gestão política e de aplicação do modelo de avaliação.

Alguém enganou-se ...

Yes, Fox News Really Is This Bad! - J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles

Não sei o que sublinar mais: o número de calorias, ou a necessidade de prevenção

PIPOCAS E COCA-COLA - Consultório Anti-Envelhecimento:

"[...] O Center for Science comparou pipocas e cola e chegou à conclusão que é pior do que comer fast-food. Uma cola e um saco médio de pipocas contêm cerca de 1.610 calorias e 60 gramas de gordura saturada. Isto é um autêntico murro no pâncreas e proporciona uma deposição de gordura de cerca de 180 gramas. 

Claro que esta “moda” foi importada e implementada no nosso país com enorme sucesso, com a complacência das agências governamentais de saúde que assobiam para o lado. É necessária uma forte campanha publicitária que consiga alertar a juventude para os malefícios de tal prática que nada têm a ver com os nossos costumes."

China, EUA e as suas respostas às alterações climáticas (nada que não já se soubesse)

Beijing has seen the future and knows it must be green | Isabel Hilton | Comment is free | The Guardian:

"While China aims to hold the patents on tomorrow's clean technologies, the US remains in the climate change dark ages China has finally put some numbers to its climate plans, a significant move in the multidimensional elaborate game of the Copenhagen climate summit. [...] The announcement was greeted with a muted sigh of disappointment. The target will not bring a reduction in China's emissions: reducing carbon intensity means only that carbon emissions will grow at a slower pace than the economy – in theory allowing for growing prosperity without mounting damage. [...]

There is little doubt that, had the US acted, China would have felt obliged to raise its own game. [...] There are, though, important underlying differences. In the last three years the Chinese have taken important strategic decisions on climate change: they have recognised that it threatens China's future prosperity, that low carbon technologies are the key not only to climate security but to technological leadership, and that, if there is to be a future, it has to be green.

None of these insights are evident in the US, outside the relatively small circles of activists, scientists and policy makers whose arguments are routinely drowned out by the tendentious noise of Fox News. A sclerotic political system, in which legislators depend for election funding on fossil fuel and other lobbies, risks replicating on a national scale the fate of General Motors. [...]

China is investing in its vision of the future: Beijing wants to move the economy up the value chain and aims to hold the patents on tomorrow's clean technologies. Chinese officials are working out how to use China's unique advantages to achieve that ambition – the ability to deploy new technologies rapidly, the capacity to experiment at scale with major projects in nuclear and coal and the political habit of planning strategically, setting national goals that its bureaucracy is forced to accept. [...].

But for China, though the outcome in Copenhagen may affect the pace of change, it will not change the underlying strategy. [...]"

Isto vai dar sarilho?

Dubai Emirato em risco de falência construiu grande sucesso imobiliário e turístico nos últimos anos - Expresso.pt

Oposições

Causa Nossa: "Dúvida, Vital Moreira: Como escrevi várias vezes, a principal arma das oposições unidas contra o Governo vai ser a arma orçamental, por via de propostas que aumentam a despesa pública e diminuem a receita, fazendo disparar o défice orçamental e o endividamento público.[...]"

A dúvida (retórica) do Vital Moreira é de como o Presidente irá reagir face a esse cenário. No entretanto, os únicos que actuam como algo parecido com uma oposição sensata e credível ao Governo são os economistas, (da direita, do centro e da esquerda): - talvez, como isto não vai lá sem a política, devêssemos criar um partido (enfim, convenhamos, seríamos linchados em mais de uma acepção, como é óbvio).

Da utilidade de dar presentes aos conhecidos

Consumerism - Salon.com: "The author of 'Scroogenomics' explains why holiday shopping is a drain on the wallet and the holiday spirit".

De acordo.

________
PS: Sobre o mesmo ler: Margens de erro: O que está errado com o Natal.

Magnífico

Kaguya Discovers a Lava Tube on the Moon | Universe Today: "Kaguya Discovers a Lava Tube on the Moon. Future lunar astronauts may want to brush up on their spelunking skills: the first lava tube has been discovered on the moon."

Já tinham feito a mesma descoberta em Marte.

E continua ... irra, vejam os figuras (não transcrevo o artigo todo por uma questão de não infringir o "copyright").

The physical realities of global warming

"The physical realities of global warming

Global warming is happening before our very eyes. All over the world, from the Arctic to Antarctica, scientists are observing the impacts of climate change. In the three years since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was drafted, hundreds of peer reviewed papers studying climate change have been published. A summary of the latest research has been compiled in The Copenhagen Diagnosis, released by the University of NSW and authored by 26 climate scientists. It's a resource heavy report, referencing hundreds of papers. Here are some of the highlights:

 [...]

 

Figure 1: Observed global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production compared with IPCC emissions scenarios. The coloured area covers all scenarios used to project climate change by the IPCC.

[...]

Figure 2: Global temperature according to NASA GISS data since 1980. The red line shows annual data, the red square shows the preliminary value for 2009, based on January-August. The green line shows the 25-year linear trend (0.19 °C per decade). The blue lines show the two most recent ten-year trends (0.18 °C per decade for 1998-2007, 0.19 per decade for 1999-2008).

[...]

 

Figure 3: Sea level change. Tide gauge data are indicated in red and satellite data in blue. The grey band shows the projections of the IPCC Third Assessment report.

[...]

Figure 4: Observed (red line) and modeled September Arctic sea ice extent in millions of square kilometers. Solid black line gives the average of 13 IPCC AR4 models while dashed black lines represent their range. The 2009 minimum has recently been calculated at 5.10 million km2, the third lowest year on record and still well below the IPCC worst case scenario.

[...]
Skeptics tend to characterise the IPCC as imposing an alarmist bias in their conclusions. The latest empirical data indicates the opposite is the case.

Qual será a tradução correcta, ou possível, de "astroturf" para português?

Grassroots vs. Astroturf: The Climate Spin Machine Goes Into Overdrive | SolveClimate.com: "Grassroots — adjective of, pertaining to, or involving the common people, esp. as contrasted with or separable from an elite. Astroturf — trademark used for an artificial grass-like ground covering. In the lead up to next month's climate negotiations in Copenhagen and the possibility of the U.S. Congress voting a climate bill, many groups are claiming to “represent Americans” and their views on energy and climate legislation."

"I asked Climate Cover Up author James Hoggan to explain the difference between a truly grassroots organization and one practicing astroturf.

"The main difference is in the level of transparency and intention. With a real grass roots organization, it’s not very difficult to find out who is funding it and what they’re up to," he said. "With astroturf, there are often attempts to hide where the money is coming from and some level of deception involved."

E continua ... actualização crítica dos resultados do último relatório intergovernamental sobre as alterações climáticas

RealClimate: Copenhagen:  

"The ‘Copenhagen Diagnosis‘, a report by 26 scientists from around the world was released today. The report is intended as an update to the IPCC 2007 Working Group 1 report. Like the IPCC report, everything in the Copenhagen Diagnosis is from the peer-reviewed literature, so there is nothing really new. But the report summarizes and highlights those studies, published since the (2006) close-off date for the IPCC report, that the authors deemed most relevant to the negotiations in Copenhagen (COP15) next month. This report was written for policy-makers, stakeholders, the media and the broader public, and has been sent to each and every one of the COP15 negotiating teams throughout the world.

Among the points summarized in the report are that:

• The ice sheets are both losing mass (and hence contributing to sea level rise). This was not certain at the time of the IPCC report.
• Arctic sea ice has declined faster than projected by IPCC.
• Greenhouse gas concentrations have continued to track the upper bounds of IPCC projections.
• Observed global temperature changes remain entirely in accord with IPCC projections, i.e. an anthropogenic warming trend of about 0.2 ºC per decade with superimposed short-term natural variability.
• Sea level has risen more than 5 centimeters over the past 15 years, about 80% higher than IPCC projections from 2001.
• Perhaps most importantly, the report articulates a much clearer picture of what has to happen if the world wants to keep future warming within the reasonable threshold (2°C) that the European Union and the G8 nations have already agreed to in principle.

The full report is available at www.copenhagendiagnosis.org.

Tem piada, e há nisto mais ensinamentos do que salta à primeira vista, mas não estou com muita vontade para puxar pela cabeça

In the EU, everyone is paranoid | Charlemagne's notebook | Economist.com: "One of the oddities of covering the European Union is watching rival factions scrap it out over policies, jobs and money, then—when the squabbling is over—all conclude that they have all been cruelly stitched up. Actually, it is odder still: in public, all European governments like to boast that they have scored historic victories in Brussels. Then in private, their diplomats and officials wander around looking miserable, saying they have been traduced and venting all manner of conspiracy theories about the perfidy of their opponents."

E continua ... bem, terá acontecido já uma vez, mas que pode ser um sinal dos tempos, isso pode

More than 100 Antarctic icebergs heading towards N.Zealand: "More than 100, and possibly hundreds, of Antarctic icebergs are floating towards New Zealand in a rare event which has prompted a shipping warning, officials said on Monday. 

An Australian Antarctic Division glaciologist said the ice chunks, spotted by satellite photography, had passed the Auckland Islands and were heading towards the main South Island, about 450 kilometres (280 miles) northeast. Scientist Neal Young said more than 100 icebergs -- some measuring more than 200 metres (650 feet) across -- were seen in just one cluster, indicating there could be hundreds more. He said they were the remains of a massive ice floe which split from the Antarctic as sea and air temperatures rise due to global warming. 'All of these have come from a larger one that was probably 30 square kilometres (11.6 square miles) in size when it left Antarctica,' Young told AFP. 'It's done a long circuit around Antarctica and now the bigger parts of it are breaking up and producing smaller ones.'"

A acompanhar ...

Why Are Some Cities More Entrepreneurial Than Others? - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com: "Edward L. Glaeser: "The success of a city is tied to the area’s entrepreneurship, but what explains why some places are more entrepreneurial than others?"

São uma série de apontamentos. Este é o primeiro. Fico com curiosidade quanto ao que se segue.

Imigração

Economist's View: "Immigration, Wages, and Compositional Amenities": "Why do people oppose immigration? Here's the introduction and part of the conclusion to a recent paper on this topic by David Card, Christian Dustmann, and Ian Preston. The bottom line is that the effects of immigration on wages and taxes -- to the extent that such effects exist -- are of concern, but according to this research it is not the primary objection"

Os resultados apontam para aspectos que a "sabedoria convencional" tende a esquecer, ou a marginalizar.

Astronomy Picture of the Day - 2009 November 25: Via Láctea (mas, o importante é visitar o link sublinhado a bold: "here")

All-Sky Milky Way Panorama Credit &amp

Explanation: If you could go far away from the Earth and look around the entire sky -- what would you see? Such was the goal of the All-Sky Milky Way Panorama 2.0 project of Axel Mellinger. Presented above is the result: a digital compilation of over 3,000 images comprising the highest resolution digital panorama of the entire night sky yet created. An interactive zoom version, featuring over 500 million pixels, can be found here.  Every constellation, every nebula, and every star cluster. Moreover, millions of individual stars are also visible, all in our Milky Way Galaxy, and many a thousand times fainter than a human can see. Dark filaments of dust lace the central band of our Milky Way Galaxy, visible across the image center. The satellite galaxies Large and Small Magellanic Clouds are visible on the lower right. This was not the first time Dr. Mellinger has embarked on such a project: the results of his first All-Sky Milky Way Panorama Project, taken using photographic film, are visible here. Every fixed astronomical object visible to the unaided eye has been imaged, including

Astronomy Picture of the Day,  NASA (Archive, 2009 November 25)

Matéria para reflexão

Tax Burdens, Around the World - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com

E continua ...

Climate science statement from the Met Office, NERC and the Royal Society: It’s the hottest decade on record and “even since the 2007 IPCC Assessment the evidence for dangerous, long-term and potentially irreversible climate change has strengthened.” « Climate Progress  

"The 2007 IPCC Assessment, the most comprehensive and respected analysis of climate change to date, states clearly that without substantial global reductions of greenhouse gas emissions we can likely expect a world of increasing droughts, floods and species loss, of rising seas and displaced human populations. However even since the 2007 IPCC Assessment the evidence for dangerous, long-term and potentially irreversible climate change has strengthened. The scientific evidence which underpins calls for action at Copenhagen is very strong. Without co-ordinated international action on greenhouse gas emissions, the impacts on climate and civilisation could be severe."

Uma fotografia não mente, não senhor!

Recebido por e-mail de um familiar:

"Somente três homens andaram sobre as águas em toda a história da Humanidade:

- O primeiro foi Cristo;
- O segundo foi Pedro;
- O terceiro foi  o Zé Sousa,

.. Mas quem é o  Zé Sousa...... ?!!?!?!

- É o 'gajo' da foto abaixo!   …E É AÇORIANO (da Ilha Terceira)  !!!!!!"

PS: Clicar na foto para ver melhor

 

O Mundo visto pelos norte-americanos ... Bem, por alguns norte-americanos ( o busílis da questão é saber quantos são os que efectivamente pensam assim, ou, parecido)

The World According to Americans | The Big Picture 
________________
PS: Clicar na imagem para aumentá-la.

E continua ... Já tinha sido referido, mas tem informação suplementar e a figura é esclarecedora

Satellite data stunner: “Our data suggest that EAST Antarctica is losing mass…. Antarctica may soon be contributing significantly more to global sea-level rise.” « Climate Progress

O preço só por si não resolve todas as falhas de mercado e de comportamento

Making buildings more efficient: looking beyond price | Grist: "Using energy more efficiently in buildings may be the fastest, cheapest way to substantially reduce carbon emissions in the short-term. How can we make it happen?"

O preço só por si não conseguiria suplementar as falhas de mercado e de comportamento que impedem que os particulares (e o Estado) aproveitem adequadamente os ganhos de eficiência potenciais que existem: nota sintética e muito boa.

Astronomy Picture of the Day 2009 - November 24: Voo da Cassini sobre Encélado

Cassini Flyby Shows Enceladus Venting 

Explanation:

What's happening on the surface of Saturn's moon Enceladus? Enormous ice jets are erupting. Giant plumes of ice have been photographed in dramatic fashion by the robotic Cassini spacecraft during this past weekend's flyby of Saturn's moon Enceladus. Pictured above, numerous plumes are seen rising from long tiger-stripe canyons across Enceladus' craggy surface. Several ice jets are even visible in the shadowed region of crescent Enceladus as they reach high enough to scatter sunlight. Other plumes, near the top of the above image, appear visible just over the moon's sunlit edge. That Enceladus vents fountains of ice was first discovered on Cassini images in 2005, and has been under close study ever since. Continued study of the ice plumes may yield further clues as to whether underground oceans, candidates for containing life, exist on this distant ice world." 

Astronomy Picture of the Day , NASA (Archive, 2009 November 24)

Um pequeno apontamento de história

Não conhecia este episódio, mas sabia das críticas ao modo como Eisenhower tinha conduzido a ofensiva alianda em 1944, e que teria contribuído para o adiamento do fim da guerra para o ano seguinte: ele não estava, efectivamente, na mesma divisão de outros grandes generais da IIGG (muito mais do lado dos alemães do que do lado dos aliados):

Op-Ed Contributor - How World War II Wasn’t Won - NYTimes.com: "Sixty-five years ago, in November 1944, the war in Europe was at a stalemate. A resurgent Wehrmacht had halted the Allied armies along Germany’s borders after its headlong retreat across northern France following D-Day. From Holland to France, the front was static — yet thousands of Allied soldiers continued to die in futile battles to reach the Rhine River. One Allied army, however, was still on the move. The Sixth Army Group reached the Rhine at Strasbourg, France, on Nov. 24, and its commander, Lt. Gen. Jacob L. Devers, looked across its muddy waters into Germany. His force, made up of the United States Seventh and French First Armies, 350,000 men, had landed Aug. 15 near Marseille — an invasion largely overlooked by history but regarded at the time as “the second D-Day” — and advanced through southern France to Strasbourg. No other Allied army had yet reached the Rhine, not even hard-charging George Patton’s.[...]"

E continua ...

 

As figuras acima foram retiradas do artigo de James Hansen, referenciado por último (muito bom - pelo menos esse deviam ler).

• UK Guardian: “To stop a climate catastrophe … Scientists must stop sanitising their message” « Climate Progress

• Anthony Faiola -- In Germany, going green gets expensive - washingtonpost.com

• Permafrost thaw threatens Russia oil and gas complex: study: "Thawing permafrost caused by global warming is costing Russian energy firms billions of dollars annually in damage control and shrinking Russia's territory, Greenpeace warned in a new study Friday."

• Climate change sceptics and lobbyists put world at risk, says top adviser | Environment | The Guardian: "Climate change sceptics and fossil fuel companies that have lobbied against action on greenhouse gas emissions have squandered the world's chance to avoid dangerous global warming, a key adviser to the government has said."

• AP: Since 1997 ‘climate change has worsened and accelerated beyond some of the grimmest of warnings made back then.’ « Climate Progress

• Climate Feedback: Is east Antarctic ice melting?: "The ice sheet covering east Antarctica may have been melting since 2006, according to new research, contradicting previous suggestions that it has remained stable or even grown in mass."
  

• Tipping Points: Melting Ice, Rising Oceans | SolveClimate.com: "Global warming is a time bomb. There may still be time to defuse it, but that requires policy-makers to take the actions that are needed, not the ineffectual actions they are discussing. Despite the publicity that global warming has received, there is a large gap between what is understood by the relevant scientific community, and what is known by the people who need to know, the public and policymakers. Global warming is small compared to day-to-day weather fluctuations, so it is hard for people to recognize that we have a crisis – but we do. The climate system has great inertia, caused, e.g., by the 4-kilometer-deep ocean and the thick ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland, which have only partly responded to the human-made changes of atmospheric composition. That inertia is not our friend. It is a Trojan horse. By the time the public notices that change is underway the momentum of the climate system may be sufficient to guarantee much larger changes. The climate system can pass tipping points, such that large change continues out of our control. The bad news is that we have already passed into a dangerous range of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The good news is that if we act smart and promptly it is still feasible to achieve a safe level of atmospheric gases, and the actions needed to achieve that would have multiple benefits in addition to climate stability. There are several climate tipping points of special concern.[...]"
  

Haja esperança!

Cartoon from The Economist « Climate Progress

Astronomy Picture of the Day - 23 de Novembro: Adeus à Terra

Crescent Earth from the Departing Rosetta Spacecraft

Explanation: Goodbye Earth. Earlier this month, ESA's interplanetary Rosetta spacecraft zoomed past the Earth on its way back across the Solar System. Pictured above, Earth showed a bright crescent phase featuring the South Pole to the passing rocket ship. Launched from Earth in 2004, Rosetta used the gravity of the Earth to help propel it out past Mars and toward a 2014 rendezvous with Comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Last year, the robot spacecraft passed asteroid 2867 Steins, and next year it is scheduled to pass enigmatic asteroid 21 Lutetia. If all goes well, Rosetta will release a probe that will land on the 15-km diameter comet in 2014."

Astronomy Picture of the Day (Archive, 2009 November 23)

Para nos preocuparmo-nos com os EUA (e com esta Administração)

Qualquer dos três artigos devem ser lidos na totalidade. No entanto, se Obama conseguir fazer com que a legislação sobre a saúde e a sobre questões energéticas e ambientais passem, o quadro tenderá a ficar menos sombrio.

• Op-Ed Columnist - Advice From Grandma - NYTimes.com:

[...] But while our culture of imagination is still vibrant, the other critical factor that still differentiates countries today — and is not a commodity — is good governance, which can harness creativity. And that we may be losing. I am talking about the ability of a society’s leaders to think long term, address their problems with the optimal legislation and attract capable people into government. What I increasingly fear today is that America is only able to produce “suboptimal” responses to its biggest problems — education, debt, financial regulation, health care, energy and environment. [...]

The standard answer is that we need better leaders. The real answer is that we need better citizens. We need citizens who will convey to their leaders that they are ready to sacrifice, even pay, yes, higher taxes, and will not punish politicians who ask them to do the hard things. Otherwise, folks, we’re in trouble. A great power that can only produce suboptimal responses to its biggest challenges will, in time, fade from being a great power — no matter how much imagination it generates.

• Op-Ed Columnist - The Phantom Menace - NYTimes.com: "A funny thing happened on the way to a new New Deal. A year ago, the only thing we had to fear was fear itself; today, the reigning doctrine in Washington appears to be “Be afraid. Be very afraid.” What happened? To be sure, “centrists” in the Senate have hobbled efforts to rescue the economy. But the evidence suggests that in addition to facing political opposition, President Obama and his inner circle have been intimidated by scare stories from Wall Street. Consider the contrast between what Mr. Obama’s advisers were saying on the eve of his inauguration, and what he himself is saying now."

• Economist's View: "America's Broken Politics" Jeffrey Sachs says government is broken:

America's broken politics, by Jeff Sachs, Project Syndicate: ...The difficulties that Barack Obama is having in passing his basic program, whether in healthcare, climate change, or financial reform, are hard to understand at first glance.[...] Part of the cause for these huge divergences ... is that America is an increasingly polarized society. [...] American politics has become venomous as the belief has grown, especially on the vocal far right, that government policy is a "zero-sum" struggle between different social groups and politics. [...] Moreover, the political process itself is broken. [...] An equally deep crisis stems from the role of big money in politics.[...] Many observers regard the lobbying process as a kind of legalized corruption...[...] Finally, policy paralysis around the US federal budget may be playing the biggest role of all in America's incipient governance crisis. The US public is rabidly opposed to paying higher taxes, yet the trend level of taxation (at about 18% of national income) is not sufficient to pay for the core functions of government. ...[...]"

Chocolate preto e os mistérios de algumas decisões empresariais

Aquilo que é dito na nota do NYT referida ao fim deixa-ne perplexo, a mim, enquanto economista e apreciador de chocolate puro (com o mínimo possível de açúcar). O que poderá justificar que se abastarde um produto de qualidade cujo mercado está em crescimento? Mistérios do capitalismo norte-americano.

Vejam que vale a pena: Op-Ed Contributor - My Chocolate Meltdown - NYTimes.com

Idiotices

Estas declarações são uma tontice. Se não houver sector pesqueiro dentro de alguns anos é porque o peixe desapareceu devido a uma exploração desmesurada dos pesqueiros, e à degradação ambiental dos mares. Nas pescas a questão da eficácia e eficiência, e longo da sua rendibilidade, está subordinada a uma exploração sustentada dos recursos. Os economistas, para além dos contributos para a  mera gestão empresarial, podem aí ser úteis - mas não era disso que a senhora falava - porque podem determinar o que será uma exploração economica sustentável daqueles recursos: - como deveria ser bom de ver, e está demonstrado na literatura, esse nível de exploração economicamente sustentado, fica aquém do nível de exploração biológica sustentável.

Pescas O sector tem de ter mais economistas para se tornar rentável Cármen Fraga - Expresso.pt: "Porto, 22 Nov (Lusa) - A presidente da Comissão de Pescas do Parlamento Europeu, Cármen Fraga, defende que as pescas têm de ter mais economistas para serem rentáveis, caso contrário, 'dentro de uns anos não há sector pesqueiro'. 'A pesca tem de ser tratada como uma actividade económica em que se fala de eficácia e eficiência. Os preços do peixe continuam a ser os mesmos de há 20 anos, enquanto os custos de produção não pararam de aumentar', disse à Lusa Cármen Fraga, à margem do seminário 'A reforma da Política Comum de Pesca'. Em entrevista à Lusa, a política espanhola defendeu que 'a pesca tem de ter mais economistas, porque tem de se começar a falar de rentabilidade'."

Leituras sobre a conjuntura económica e economia (III)

• Stabilities and instabilities in the macroeconomy | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists Economics lacks an anchored understanding of the nature of the reality that economics is supposed to illuminate. This column, which introduces a new CEPR Policy Insight, says that instability of leverage, connectivity, and the potential instability of the price level have all been neglected in stable-with-frictions macro theory. Technical innovations will not bring real progress as long as “stability-with-frictions” remains the ruling paradigm. Meanwhile, governments are not prepared to face another crisis.

• Emprunt : un dernier verre avant la sobriété ? | Telos

• Economist's View: "What if a Recovery Is All in Your Head?": "Robert Shiller wonders if the recovery is based upon a self-fulfilling prophecy: What if a Recovery Is All in Your Head?

• Cozido à portuguesa | Pedro Carvalho | Económico  Diz-se que um optimista é um pessimista mal informado. Nos últimos dias, temos sido bombardeados com indicadores macro capazes de desalentar o mais inabalável dos optimistas que esteja minimamente informado sobre o actual estado da economia nacional. A Comissão Europeia veio dizer que Portugal voltará a divergir da zona euro em 2010 e 2011 e a OCDE diz que a nossa economia tem um potencial de crescimento de apenas 1% entre 2012 e 2017, o terceiro pior registo entre os 24 países analisados pela organização [...]  E qual é a receita para contrariar um crescimento anémico, um desemprego galopante e contas públicas descontroladas? [...] Há receitas para todos os gostos, mas os ingredientes são, mais ou menos, os mesmos. [...] não podemos dar a volta à crise sem reformas estruturais, sem inovação, educação, conhecimento, novas tecnologias, produtividade e contas públicas equilibradas. Cozinhando assim a retoma, com uma visão integrada, vamos criar condições para gerar mais riqueza e, se a Lei de Okun estiver certa, a economia voltará a criar empregos de forma sustentável. Caso contrário [...]"

O financiamento das despesas de saúde é um problema de todos, e vai piorar

The Health Care Challenge: Not Just a U.S. Problem « iMFdirect: "Health spending in OECD countries increased from 4½ percent of GDP in 1960 to 12½ percent in 2007 (see Figure 1). What accounts for this dramatic increase? Income growth, insurance, demographics, and technological change all contributed, but the latter was the key driver. Public spending for health care also increased sharply (by 5½ percentage points of GDP) during this period (see Figure 2)."

 

E continua ... Sem comentário

MEP clashes with bishop over 'climate alarmism'! Climate Ark  

"A controversial Conservative Euro MP has careered into a clash with a bishop over his claim that the Church of England has "abandoned religion" to preach the gospel of climate change. Roger Helmer, Tory MEP for the East Midlands, has infuriated the Church with the accusation that it is more interested in "climate alarmism" than its traditional teachings."

O que se vê a infra-vermelho

Ring of Stars in Centaurus A Uncovered | Universe Today: "Centaurus A (NGC 5128) is one of the most studied objects in the Southern sky, because it is the giant elliptical galaxy with the closest proximity to our own Milky Way. It lies 11 million light years away from the Milky Way, and is believe to have merged with another gaseous galaxy about 200 to 700 million years ago. The result of this galactic mashup: the birth of hundreds of thousands of stars in a kiloparsec-spanning ring near the core."

E continua ... Chuva e desvio de e-mails

In other UK news: “Rain like this happens once every 1,000 years” « Climate Progress

___________

PS (I): Sobre os e-mails e outros assuntos: Open Left:: Climate change news on 3 fronts--denialism, nuclear and coal-shows complexity of struggle

PS (II): Sobre o mesmo assunto:

In the trenches on climate change, hostility among foes: "Electronic files that were stolen from a prominent climate research center and made public last week provide a rare glimpse into the behind-the-scenes battle to shape the public perception of global warming. While few U.S. politicians bother to question whether humans are changing the world's climate -- nearly three years ago the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded the evidence was unequivocal -- public debate persists. And the newly disclosed private exchanges among climate scientists at Britain's Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia reveal an intellectual circle that appears to feel very much under attack, and eager to punish its enemies. In one e-mail, the center's director, Phil Jones, writes Pennsylvania State University's Michael E. Mann and questions whether the work of academics that question the link between human activities and global warming deserve to make it into the prestigious IPCC report, which represents the global consensus view on climate science."  

_______

PS (23.11.09): E ainda este: Newtongate: The final nail in the coffin of Renaissance and Enlightenment “thinking” « Climate Progress: "The blog Carbon Fixated has a must-read post that provides some perspective on the scandal du jour:"

PS (II): E mais este:

Leaked emails mark dangerous shift in climate denial strategy | Mark Lynas | Environment | guardian.co.uk

The theft and web publication by climate change deniers of private emails from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit is an extremely worrying development in the tortured politics of global warming.

[...] the deniers are now declaring war on the scientists themselves. Like the creationists they unconsciously mimic, they make no distinction between the political and the scientific sphere – it is open season in both.

And the strategy is simple. Given that scientists are one of society's most trusted groups (unlike journalists or politicians), the climate denial movement has begun a battle to undermine public trust in climate scientists themselves. No more will the legions of anonymous researchers who collect and interpret data from meteorological stations, satellites and ice cores be considered above the fray – they now run the risk of personal attacks, exposure of their private lives and vilification.

[...]

None of this would matter if the public weren't fooled. But they are. Polls show climate "scepticism" is rising, perhaps even to a majority position, on both sides of the Atlantic. Presumably public trust in climate change scientists is falling commensurately. This will in turn undermine consensus in mitigating climate change – which is of course the very intention of the deniers in the first place.

Some of the scientists whose private emails have been exposed write for the blog RealClimate, where they argue that the revealed correspondence shows "no evidence of any worldwide conspiracy ... no admission that global warming is a hoax, no evidence of the falsifying of data" and so on. But as George Marshall, a writer on climate change who specialises in the psychology of denial on the issue, puts it: "This is hardly the point. This is an orchestrated smear campaign and does not require balance or context."

Não sei se se aplica ao caso dos Açores

WHOI : Oceanus : The Promise and Perils of Seafloor Mining "Can minerals be extracted from the seafloor without environmental impacts?"

Leituras sobre a conjuntura económica e economia (II)

• RGE - Is King Euro Naked? Europeans may find several historical and theoretical reasons why a political government for the euro area would be desirable. But after the global crisis there are technical reasons why it is more than desirable. That conclusion is a necessity in light of three increasingly important aspects of current monetary developments in Europe: (1) the lack of an exchange rate policy; (2) the absence of a European fiscal authority guaranteeing the stability of sovereign bonds; and (3) the collusive relationship developing between the European Central Bank (ECB), the banks, and the national governments hiding the costs to the taxpayers.

• RGE - Post-Crisis: What Should Be the Goal of a Fiscal Exit Strategy? One obvious fallout of the global financial crisis is a huge deterioration in fiscal conditions, particularly in advanced countries. [...] It really boils down to “plain vanilla” deficits—revenue losses from the recession, fiscal stimulus, and some underlying spending increases that would have occurred even without a recession. [...]The first step is to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio.[...] But is stabilizing debt ratios at their post-crisis level enough?

• RGE - Balancing Fiscal Support with Fiscal Solvency As I noted in my last post, government deficits in many countries—particularly in advanced countries—have jumped dramatically in the wake of the global crisis, and government debt has reached levels that could jeopardize longer term macroeconomic stability and growth. [...] The challenge for policymakers is to formulate strategies for fiscal solvency—what we often call “exit strategies”—and communicate these strategies to the general public.[...] Are there actions that governments can undertake today to enhance their credibility without negatively affecting aggregate demand?

• RGE - Just How Much of a Eurozone Rebound Really Was There in Q3? [...] So evidently we are out of recession, but are we out of the woods yet?

• RGE - ECB Shows the Exit: Timing and Signposts [...] the central bank is increasingly feeling the need to regain control of market interest rates via a progressive mopping up of excess liquidity. [...] As a result, ECB figures confirm that banks’ net asset purchases of government bonds more than tripled and now stand at EUR 150bn: banks enjoyed a positive carry which was much needed for their impaired bottom lines, and governments were able to finance the heaviest supply in history which allowed them to undertake a significant (though not dramatic) fiscal easing. Something for everyone. Faced with a stabilizing macro and financial picture, the question is: what’s next?

• McKinsey & Company - Imbalances that strain the eurozone: "[...] Much less noticed has been the steady rise in current account deficits and surpluses among eurozone countries since the adoption of the common currency in 1999. [...] Although the eurozone's collective current account has seen only modest deficits and surpluses, the sum of the absolute value of its current deficits and surpluses rose at a 16.3 percent annual rate after 2000—more than twice as fast as the 6.7 percent annual pace of increase in the 1990s. To put this in perspective, the U.S. current account deficit grew by 7 percent per year during this period, while China's surplus grew at a 43 percent annual rate. 

[...] Meanwhile, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain have run growing current account deficits since 2000, both with other eurozone countries and with the rest of the world. Spain's overall current account deficit reached $154 billion in 2008, the largest of any country in the eurozone, and equal to roughly 10 percent of GDP—much bigger proportionally than the U.S. deficit at its peak. Greece and Portugal had even bigger current account deficits relative to GDP in 2008. 

[...] In deficit countries, foreign capital flows fell sharply in 2008, by some 28 percent in Spain and 30 percent in Portugal, for example, contributing to deep recessions. Today, after the wage and price run—ups that occurred in the deficit countries during the boom, their exports are less competitive on world markets than those of other eurozone countries. [...]

[...] In addition, running a continued current account deficit adds to the national debt, whether it is in the form of government debt (as in Italy) or private debt (as in Spain, Portugal, and Greece). And at some point, these debts must be repaid. Although the use of a common currency removes the risk of a sudden currency depreciation causing the value of foreign debt to soar, the repayment will still represent a transfer of wealth and income out of the country to investors elsewhere. 

[...] It will also require adopting policies to promote higher productivity growth in the deficit countries of Southern Europe, which will raise incomes and create more competitive exports. [...]"

• arquivo: Ausência de caminho?| Pedro Adão e Silva  [...] Moral da história: sem o pacote de estímulos, a recessão teria sido bem mais profunda e o desemprego ainda pior. Foi quebrado o ciclo vicioso que nos ameaçava, mas os riscos estão longe de terem sido eliminados. Que fazer agora? Estamos perante um dilema dramático: não temos recursos para manter a economia alimentada pelo consumo público, mas não há condições para não o fazer. 

Há três caminhos possíveis, todos muito exíguos: diminuir a despesa (sendo que a que resta é tremendamente rígida); aumentar impostos (não se vê quais) e estimular a economia, continuando a aumentar a despesa. Provavelmente, é preciso fazer de tudo um pouco. Mas também é necessário que nos libertemos dos que, enquanto se entretêm a repetir que o cenário é negro, não conseguem vislumbrar nenhum caminho. 

Ganhos financeiros da eficiência energética - sinais promissores do mercado

Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog: Eichholtz, Kok and Quigley find Economic Value from Green Buildings (via J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles)

E continua ...

• Greenland ice loss behind a sixth of sea-level rise | Climate Ark: "Greenland lost 1500 cubic kilometres of ice between 2000 and 2008, making it responsible for one-sixth of global sea-level rise. Even worse, there are signs that the rate of ice loss is increasing."

• Permafrost thaw threatens Russia oil and gas complex: study| Climate Ark: "Thawing permafrost caused by global warming is costing Russian energy firms billions of dollars annually in damage control and shrinking Russia's territory, Greenpeace warned in a new study Friday. According to the report by the environmental watchdog, up to 55 billion roubles (1.9 billion dollars) a year is spent on repairs to infrastructure and pipelines damaged by changes in the permafrost in western Siberia. 'For Russia, the biggest threat of the permafrost melt is to oil and gas company infrastructure,' said Vladimir Chuprov, who heads Greenpeace's energy programme in Russia. He said that the group had consulted with experts at gas giant Gazprom in writing its report, which detailed the destruction to infrastructure such as pipelines caused by rising temperatures and resulting melt water. 'These are people who see what is happening and are already feeling the economic consequences of it,' he told reporters in Moscow."
  

Recomendação forte de leitura

"O Espectáculo da Vida - a prova da evolução", Richard Dawkins, Casa das Letras, é um livro magnífico de divulgação e pedagogia científica. Um dos aspectos mais sinistros dos tempos que correm é a dimensão significativa do combate dos fundamentalistas (e dos ignorantes de todo o tipo) à ciência, e em particular à teoria [na acepção de conjunto de explicações comprovadas e validadas científicamente, e não na acepção de hipótese] da evolução pelo mecanismo da selecção natural - este livro de Dawkins lembra nomeadamente isso.

Abaixo: um exemplo (mais um) da actuação recente da evolução por selecção natural :

'Gene change in cannibals reveals evolution in action ' by Andy Coghlan - NewScientist - RichardDawkins.net: "It's a snapshot of human evolution in progress. A genetic mutation protecting against kuru – a brain disease passed on by eating human brains – only emerged and spread in the last 200 years. When members of the Fore people in Papua New Guinea died, others would eat the dead person's brain during funeral rituals as a mark of respect. Kuru passed on in this way killed at least 2500 Fore in the 20th century until the cause was identified in the late 1950s and the practice halted. Identification of kuru and how it was spread helped researchers identify how BSE – mad cow disease – spread through the feeding of infected cattle brains to other animals, and how this eventually led to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), which has killed 166 people so far in the UK. Simon Mead of the British prion research centre at University College London says the discovery of an 'anti-kuru' gene is the most clear-cut evidence yet of human evolution in action."

Como vai a política e o debate sobre a Europa no nosso vizinho a norte: a Islândia.

The Drunk In The Pond| Economic Desaster Area

Chavez quer ressuscitar a Contabilidade Nacional tal como era praticada, e teorizada, nos países socialistas [como era mesmo denominada?], ou trata-se de mais um episódio da incomodidade dos políticos (de alguns) com o PIB: "mata-se o mensageiro que traz as más notícias"

Venezuela’s Chavez Slams GDP Methodology After Third-Quarter Contraction - Real Time Economics - WSJ: "Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Wednesday he plans to come up with a new, socialist-friendly way of measuring economic growth, one day after gross domestic product data indicated his country is in recession. Hugo Chavez takes aim at statistics. (AFP/Getty Images) Oil-rich Venezuela’s economy shrank 4.5% in the third quarter, the country’s central bank reported Tuesday. This comes after the economy shrank 2.4% in the second quarter. “We simply can’t permit that they continue calculating GDP with the old capitalist method,” President Chavez said in a televised speech before members of his socialist party. “It’s harmful.”"

Apesar de tudo é pior do que o ataque às sondagens.

O aumento da capacidade produtiva da China justifica-se?

TheMoneyIllusion » Say’s Law in China "

"Is China producing too much of everything?  Say’s Law says that’s impossible.  Then how about too much housing?  Perhaps, but here are some relevant estimates (or I should say guesstimates, as I had trouble finding data)"

Teoria económica da Mafia

Creative contract enforcement in Italy – Chris Blattman: "[...] The book [...] essentially advances an economic theory of the mafia: they are entrepreneurs and firms who collude and compete; the good they sell is not violence, or stolen property, but protection. 

That is, they enforce contracts in places the government can’t or won’t, like illegal and illicit markets, or areas where the police and courts are weak. They actively compete with the police to provide protection, and this good is in high demand. Every transaction done under the table cannot seek protection from the courts, and the mafia step naturally into this gap.

Their name is their trademark, and they prevent new entry by force but also by complex social rules and ethnic identity. Naturally the mafia also help create demand for the product, through intimidation and threat, but the real demand for services comes from government regulation or government failure. Every tariff or ban or rule creates an incentive for a black market, and the market evolves contract enforcement mechanisms where the state does not."

Leituras sobre a conjuntura económica e economia (I)

• Cenário de choque divulgado pela Société Générale - Expresso.pt: "Não sendo uma previsão, mas 'uma exploração de perigos', o panorama para os próximos três a quatro anos nos países desenvolvidos, alvitrado pelo relatório negro de 68 páginas divulgado ontem pela Société Générale (SG), aponta para crescimento 'anémico' à japonesa, regresso à ortodoxia orçamental, riscos de inflação ou de estagflação em 2012 [...], e de oportunidades em algumas commodities que denotam tendência altista. A questão crítica, segundo o relatório de choque, poderia resumir-se à expressão de campanha política: É a dívida (pública), estúpido! Intitulado 'Worst-Case Debt Scenario', com a assinatura do analista de estratégia Daniel Fermon [...]  

Segundo o cenário, a dívida pública externa (não incluindo a dos privados) dos Estados nos países desenvolvidos passará, em média, de 75% do produto interno bruto (PIB) de cada país em 2007 (antes da Grande Recessão) para 115% no próximo ano. [...]  Fermon foi questionado sobre quais os caminhos prováveis face a este disparo da dívida pública. O analista apontou três caminhos, admitindo que um quarto de falência dos Estados (como aconteceu à Islândia) possa ser colocado de parte: regresso de uma dinâmica de inflação muito clara a partir de 2012 [...]; intervencionismo do Estado de sentido distinto ao actual, com vista a aliviar a carga (...]; e inovação acelerada à la Schumpeter [...]. No campo da intervenção dos governos, [...]: a) reprivatizações; b) aumento dos impostos (e das receitas fiscais); c) redução drástica pelo lado da despesa dos Estados; c) desvalorizações competitivas da moeda. [...] Alguns analistas acusam este tipo de relatórios como sendo veículos de pressão sobre os governos para o abandono das políticas anticrise que já estariam a durar excessivamente.

• "Where will we be in one year? | Free exchange | Economist.com: "The good news is, the OECD's latest economic forecast revises up sharply projected economic growth for member nations. The bad news is, that still leaves OECD economies in pretty dismal shape. [...] And as you can see, things will like be as bad or worse in the euro zone, particularly around the periphery. So where will we be in one year? Well, if things continue on in this manner, the developed world will be concluding a second consecutive year of near-record high unemployment, and entering a third. The international economic institutional architecture developed in the wake of the Second World War has simply not been tested under these circumstances."

•  Top-down versus bottom-up macroeconomics | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists: "Hayek argued that no individual is capable of understanding the full complexity of a market system. Instead, individuals only understand small bits of the total information. The main function of markets consists in aggregating this diverse information. If there were individuals capable of understanding the whole picture, we would not need markets. This was in fact Hayek’s criticism of the “socialist” economists who took the view that the central planner understood the whole picture and would therefore be able to compute the whole set of optimal prices, making the market system superfluous.

Rational expectations models as intellectual heirs of central planning [?]  My contention is that the rational expectations models are the intellectual heirs of these central-planning models. Not in the sense that individuals in these rational expectations models aim at planning the whole, but in the sense that, as the central planner, they understand the whole picture. These individuals use this superior information to obtain the “optimum optimorum” for their own private welfare. In this sense, they are top-down models."

• Balancing Fiscal Support with Fiscal Solvency « iMFdirect: "As I noted in my last post, government deficits in many countries—particularly in advanced countries—have jumped dramatically in the wake of the global crisis, and government debt has reached levels that could jeopardize longer term macroeconomic stability and growth. These countries will need to tighten fiscal policy significantly sometime down the road, especially where demographic trends are pushing up health and pension spending. But fiscal deficits cannot be lowered in the immediate future. For the time being, fiscal (and monetary) policies must continue to support economic activity. The economic recovery is uneven and could be threatened by any premature withdrawal of policy support. Private demand is still unable to stand on its own two feet. This gives rise to a policy conundrum. How can we reconcile the competing requirements of short-term support for the economy and longer term fiscal solvency?"

Açores e renováveis: muito bem!

:ILHAS: Eficiência energética:

"[...] em Outubro deste ano, a ilha das Flores esteve 12 dias a funcionar exclusivamente com recurso a energias renováveis, numa situação inédita a nível nacional e que nos deixa a todos, acredito, orgulhosos. As Flores, a par com São Miguel, são as ilhas dos Açores onde a taxa de penetração das renováveis tem, neste momento, maior incidência, se bem que existam características endógenas favoráveis para que, a curto prazo, a contribuição das energias renováveis na produção de energia eléctrica no arquipélago passe de 28% para 75%, até 2018."

Isso será excelente, mas fico com dúvidas sobre os números: por exemplo, isso acontecerá independentemente do comportamento da procura de electricidade ao longo período até 2018?

Deverão ler a nota do :Ilhas na totalidade.

E continua ... e se o mar satura?

Oceans' uptake of manmade carbon may be slowing:  

"The oceans play a key role in regulating climate, absorbing more than a quarter of the carbon dioxide that humans put into the air. Now, the first year-by-year accounting of this mechanism during the industrial era suggests the oceans are struggling to keep up with rising emissions -- a finding with potentially wide implications for future climate. The study appears in this week's issue of the journal Nature."

A Lua e a água - como já disse, e para variar, água na Lua é uma excelente notícia

Op-Ed Contributor - The Wet Side of the Moon - NYTimes.com:

"Picture a habitat atop a hill in warm sunlight on the edge of a crater near the south pole of the Moon. There are metal ores in the rocks nearby and ice in the shadows of the crater below. Solar arrays are set up on the regolith that covers the Moon’s surface. Humans live in sealed, cave-like lava tubes, protected from solar flares and sustained by large surface greenhouses. Imagine the Moon as the first self-sustainable human settlement away from Earth and a high-speed transportation hub for the solar system. 

We can finally begin to think seriously about establishing such a self-sufficient home on the Moon because last week, NASA announced that it had discovered large quantities of water there. While we have known for decades that the Moon had all the raw chemicals necessary for sustaining life, we believed they were trapped in rocks and thus difficult to extract. The discovery of plentiful lunar water is of tremendous importance to humanity and our long-term survival."

E continua ... incêndios na Austrália, mas podem suceder, também, em Portugal

Australia: Heatwave 'connected to climate change' Climate Ark:

"There's a 'high chance' a heatwave sweeping Australia's southern and eastern states is related to climate change, a scientist at the Bureau of Meteorology says. [...] This (the heatwave) is a truly extreme event,' Dr Stern says. 'Many places have established all-time records for the first half of November.' The Meteorologist says the heatwave is caused by the absense of southerly wind flows. 'There is considerable variability in the climate and we do have in the background [that] the globe has warmed up by nearly a degree celcius over the last 50 years, so temperatures are higher now than they were then."

E pode suceder em Portugal: Incêndios Condições extremas ocorridas na Austrália podem acontecer em Portugal investigador - Expresso.pt