E continua ... A prova de que não há consenso científico sobre a responsabilidade humana no aquecimento global

"One of the memes I’ve heard recently in the climate debate is that there is no scientific consensus — that there is actually strong disagreement.

The main basis of this argument is that 31,486 dissenting scientists have signed a petition against the belief that Global Warming is man made at the PetitionProject.org."

Ora, nada melhor do que uma imagem para tira-teimas:

Mas, fica mais esclarecedor se atentar na imagem seguinte (clicar para ver as versões maiores das duas imagens):

 

The Big Picture » Blog Archive » Statistics: Scientific Consensus on Climate Change?

PS: Não vá o diabo tecê-las: a epígrafe desta nota foi escrita em tom irónico!

O porquê do frio

Polar Pressure, Snowstorms and Sea Ice - Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com:

"The unusual pattern of atmospheric high and low pressure over and around the Arctic that has contributed to the recent snow and cold from Alabama to Washington, to East Anglia, England (and rain and warmth along the west coast of Greenland) is also an important influence on the shifting sheath of sea ice on the Arctic Ocean. Several specialists studying Arctic sea ice told me that there’s a good chance that, if current conditions persist, the ice this spring could be in better shape than it has been over the last few years. In all of this, though, it’s important to step back from the lure of the moment, which quickly attracts bursts of attention from climate commentators when conditions favor one view or another, and examine long-term trends." 

"[...]Over all, Dr. Rigor says, the enduring trend is toward diminishing sea ice in summers. He and many other Arctic specialists say that human-caused climate change is undoubtedly playing a role, but one still largely hidden amid layers of complex natural influences and variability."

E continua ... Hansen fala do CO2

What CO2 Means For You James Hansen Big Think

E continua ... Hansen fala do seu livro e do que pode suceder

The Science of Global Catastrophe James Hansen Big Think

Só pode ser brincadeira!

Deve ser brincadeira de fim de ano - não acredito nisto. :ILHAS: Irreal social: "Irreal social: «Castanheira Barros, candidato à liderança do Partido Social-democrata (PSD), defende a construção de dois túneis entre o Faial e o Pico e um outro desta ilha para S. Jorge (...)».

Fiz um comentário a esta nota do :Ilhas, se estiverem interessados.

E continua ... a evolução do CO2

Figure Figure 3: CO2 levels (parts per million) over the past 10,000 years. Blue line derived from ice cores obtained at Taylor Dome, Antarctica (NOAA). Green line derived from ice cores obtained at Law Dome, East Antarctica (CDIAC). Red line from direct measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (NOAA).

A visual deconstruction of a skeptic argument 

Nota: É a imagem final da última nota. E não é que o período do aquecimento medieval até tem um pico de CO2?

E continua ... explicação com imagens

A visual deconstruction of a skeptic argument: "[...] The argument is 'Human CO2 emissions are small compared to natural emissions'. Humans emit 29 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide every year. In contrast, land and vegetation emit 439 gigatonnes and the ocean emits 332 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year. One cannot deny that 29 gigatonnes of human emissions is small compared to 771 gigatonnes of natural emissions. But is this the full picture?" 

 
Figure 1: Human CO2 emissions compared to natural CO2 emissions. Numbers represent flux of carbon dioxide in gigatonnes (Figure 7.3 in the IPCC AR4).

What this argument fails to disclose is that nature both emits and absorbs carbon dioxide. [...]The net contribution of carbon dioxide from nature is -17 gigatonnes per year. A more complete picture of the carbon cycle is depicted in Figure 2:

 
Figure 2: Global carbon cycle. Numbers represent flux of carbon dioxide in gigatonnes (Figure 7.3 in the IPCC AR4).

Figures 1 and 2 are a visual demonstration of the dangers of focusing on one piece of puzzle while ignoring the broader picture. A false argument doesn't necessarily have to contain falsehoods - omitting all the facts can be enough to paint a misleading picture. In this case, a fuller understanding of the carbon cycle shows us that the climate is in approximate balance. Carbon dioxide levels have remained at relatively steady levels over the past 10,000 years. In fact, current CO2 levels of 385 parts per million are the highest in 15 to 20 million years (Tripati 2009). 

A figura 3 apresento-a na nota seguinte:

E continua ... quem são os inocentes?

Retirei isto do Climate Progress ("watch Ross Gelbspan's video..." December 27, 2009). Descreve como as indústrias fósseis têm tentado, e conseguido, formatar a opinião pública e a comunicação social quanto ao debate sobre o aquecimento global.

Nota: Consegue-se ver com o écran completo.

PS: Acabei de ver o vídeo. Não era aquilo que estava à espera - estava a contar com uma denúncia mais extensa da formatação referida acima, e o que sucede é que se trata  em grande parte, da apresentação de um programa para actuar, bem intencionado, mas, muito provavelmente, com aspectos impraticáveis por motivos políticos, ou tecnológicos. Vale, no entanto, ver e ouvir, não só como denúncia daquele aspecto, mas também como demonstração de como vai o desespero de muita gente que está preocupada com tudo isto. Eu estou muito preocupado, e você?

E continua ... ora, isto devia ser óbvio, mas é precisamente por isto que "eles" criaram, de fio a pavio, a idéia da ciência do aquecimento global ser controvertida (como antes o conseguiram com a ciência dos efeitos do tabaco; com a ciência dos efeitos do chumbo - ah!, então, não sabiam o que custou para termos a gasolina sem chumbo?). Vejam por favor a nota abaixo de 21.12.09

Warming or not, we must end global oil economy: "As the world's leaders begin a second round of climate talks, it would behoove those who question the science behind global warming to understand that the world's current energy policy is unsustainable. This means that the proposed carbon reduction goals will help drive the world towards new sources of energy -- a good thing for all. The assembled international presidents and prime ministers must attempt to set realistic goals that address the issues that can be tackled, and new sources of energy should be at the top of the to-do list."

Astronomy Picture of the Day - 2009 December 26: Galáxia M51

M51 Hubble Remix 

S. Beckwith (STScI), Hubble Heritage Team, (STScI/AURA), ESA, NASA Additional Processing: Robert Gendler 

Explanation: The 51st entry in Charles Messier's famous catalog is perhaps the original spiral nebula - a large galaxy with a well defined spiral structure also cataloged as NGC 5194. Over 60,000 light-years across, M51's spiral arms and dust lanes clearly sweep in front of its companion galaxy (right), NGC 5195. Image data from the Hubble's Advanced Camera for Surveys has been reprocessed to produce this alternative portrait of the well-known interacting galaxy pair. The processing has further sharpened details and enhanced color and contrast in otherwise faint areas, bringing out dust lanes and extended streams that cross the small companion, along with features in the surroundings and core of M51 itself. The pair are about 31 million light-years distant. Not far on the sky from the handle of the Big Dipper, they officially lie within the boundaries of the small constellation Canes Venatici."

Astronomy Picture of the Day: NASA (Archive, 2009 December 26)

Nota: Clicar na imagem para ter acesso a uma versão maior

E continua ... as notas do Climate Progress mais comentadas em 2009

The most-discussed Climate Progress posts of 2009 « Climate Progress

 

This list of most-commented-on posts is, I think, an okay introduction to Climate Progress (though I’d still recommend starting with the articles on the right hand column) — but it’s an even better introduction to the terrific set of readers that make CP’s comments section so lively and informative:

75 (comments). High Water: Greenland ice sheet melting faster than expected and could raise East Coast sea levels an extra 20 inches by 2100 — to more than 6 feet

77. Breaking: NOAA puts out “El Niño Watch,” so record temperatures are coming and this will be the hottest decade on record

83. The U.S. House of Representatives approves landmark (bipartisan!) climate bill, 219 – 212. Waxman-Markey would complete America’s transition to a clean energy economy, which started with the stimulus bill.

86. How the world can (and will) stabilize at 350 to 450 ppm: The full global warming solution

91. Anti-science conservatives are stuck in denial but for climate science activists, the reverse is true

93. What are some questions and issues you want Climate Progress to address?[I think I addressed over half of the suggestions raised.]

100. Error-riddled ‘Superfreakonomics’: New book pushes global cooling myths, sheer illogic, and “patent nonsense” — and the primary climatologist it relies on, Ken Caldeira, says “it is an inaccurate portrayal of me” and “misleading” in “many” places.

104. Earth to John Christy: Misleading for free is wrong, too.

111. Memo to media, blogosphere: Swift boat smearer Marc Morano has no credibility. He is unquotable and uncitable.

113. Exclusive analysis, Part 1: The staggering cost of new nuclear power

186. National Solar Observatory, NASA say no “Maunder Minimum” — sorry, deniers — Solar Cycle 24 poised to rev up

201. Contest: Come up with a title for my book  [The response to that contest was amazing. While no one quite got the title that we ended up using, it did help inspire the final title, as I'll discuss in January.]

231. WattsUpWithThat labels people who advocate putting a price on global warming pollution as “criminal.”

279. An open letter to graduate students and young scientists in fields related to climate research from Dr. Judith Curry regarding hacked CRU emails

390. Exclusive: New NSIDC director Serreze explains the “death spiral” of Arctic ice, brushes off the “breathtaking ignorance” of blogs like WattsUpWithThat

As you can see, I’m getting a lot more comments than I did last year, which is no surprise since I have more than twice as many readers (not counting subscribers, which have increased 6-fold)."

Recomendação forte: utilizem o Climate Progress, juntamente com o Real Climate, Skeptical Science, e outros como fonte de informação, e de validação das questões que são ventiladas sobre o aquecimento global - recorram aos instrumentos de procura dos próprios blogues.

E continua ... Himalaia

Political Economy Research: Global Warming: Catastrophe from the Himalayas to the Bay of Bengal:

"As the Copenhagen summit continued, a stunning example of the killing and devastating effects global warming and climate change is already having on humanity came out in a story from the UK Guardian newspaper. Reporters for the paper wrote a story about a 1,000 mile journey they had undertaken—from the Himalayan mountains in Nepal to the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh where the rivers that start in the Himalayas empty out. These reporters wanted to observe and witness the actual effects of global warming on the people and ecosystems in this region. 

Their journey started in the high Himalayas—the roof of the world, a world of snow-capped peaks and awe-inspiring glaciers. But they found something else—evidence of immense changes that are occurring. They saw the Thulagi glacier—with a melted lake that has doubled in size in a few years and is held back by only a low wall of dead ice and earth. If the glacier continues to melt as it has, billions of gallons of water will burst through this dam and devastate villages and farmland below. Thulagi is just one of 20 growing glacial lakes in Nepal. Average temperatures in Nepal have risen 1.6 degees C in 50 years. But high in the mountains of Nepal, temperatures have risen 4 degees C and are expected to increase 8 degees C by 2050 at the current rate."

E continua ... os insectos ao barulho!

Global warming is already speeding up insect breeding « Climate Progress

"From a pest perspective it's an important issue."

December 26, 2009

Two butterfly species, the small heath (left) and common blue (right), have become more likely since 1980 to have multiple generations in Central Europe in the same year, as a long-term warming trend has picked up pace:

E continua ... The best climate cartoons of 2009 « Climate Progress

Apanhei o Climate Progress em erro (atenção aos denegacionistas do mundo!): são 11 cartoons e não 10.

Nota: Clicar em cima para obter uma imagem ampliada.

The best climate cartoons of 2009 « Climate Progress

Astronomy Picture of the Day - 2009 December 25: a nossa Galáxia

A Graceful Arc 

 Explanation: 

The graceful arc of the Milky Way begins and ends at two mountain peaks in this solemn night sky panorama. Created from a 24 frame mosaic, exposures tracking Earth and sky were made separately, with northern California's Mount Lassen at the left and Mount Shasta at the far right, just below the star and dust clouds of the galactic center. Lassen and Shasta are volcanoes in the Cascade Mountain Range of North America, an arc of the volcanic Pacific Ring of Fire. In the dim, snow-capped peaks, planet Earth seems to echo the subtle glow of the Milky Way's own faint, unresolved starlight."

Astronomy Picture of the Day: NASA, Tony Hallas (Archive, 2009 December 25)

Lido hoje

Going to America: A Ponzi scheme that works | The Economist: "The greatest strength of America is that people want to live there"

The idea of progress: Onwards and upwards | The Economist: "In the rich world the idea of progress has become impoverished. Through complacency and bitter experience, the scope of progress has narrowed. The popular view is that, although technology and GDP advance, morals and society are treading water or, depending on your choice of newspaper, sinking back into decadence and barbarism. On the left of politics these days, “progress” comes with a pair of ironic quotation marks attached; on the right, “progressive” is a term of abuse. It was not always like that. There has long been a tension between seeking perfection in life or in the afterlife. 

Optimists in the Enlightenment and the 19th century came to believe that the mass of humanity could one day lead happy and worthy lives here on Earth. Like Madach’s Adam, they were bursting with ideas for how the world might become a better place. Some thought God would bring about the New Jerusalem, others looked to history or evolution. Some thought people would improve if left to themselves, others thought they should be forced to be free; some believed in the nation, others in the end of nations; some wanted a perfect language, others universal education; some put their hope in science, others in commerce; some had faith in wise legislation, others in anarchy. Intellectual life was teeming with grand ideas. For most people, the question was not whether progress would happen, but how. 

The idea of progress forms the backdrop to a society. In the extreme, without the possibility of progress of any sort, your gain is someone else’s loss. If human behaviour is unreformable, social policy can only ever be about trying to cage the ape within. Society must in principle be able to move towards its ideals, such as equality and freedom, or they are no more than cant and self-delusion. So it matters if people lose their faith in progress. And it is worth thinking about how to restore it."

A happy Christmas – alone | Balaji Ravichandran | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk: "The meaning of Christmas, and its supposed power to bring friends and family together, is again in evidence this year. Jonathan Freedland admirably called for an end to loneliness, and urged social policy to address it – a sentiment echoed by a Guardian leader. I do not wish to detract from the importance of addressing chronic loneliness, particularly in the elderly. Many people end up alone, not just over the festive season, but for significantly longer periods, for want of company, and not of their own volition. It is easy to pity them (which is just offensive) and say that we must do more as a society to help them. What is significantly harder is to understand the nature of, and the causes behind, loneliness in various sections of society, and ask whether and where society should act. [...]
Thomas de Quincey, the famed intellectual who influenced Baudelaire and Borges, wrote: Solitude, though it may be silent as light, is like light – the mightiest of agencies; for solitude is essential. All come into this world alone; all leave it alone For those who willingly choose to spend their Christmas alone, this is my Christmas message."

E continua ... no Natal, também ...

Two Christmas Climate Cartoons « Climate Progress

E continua ... para ir lembrando factos básicos

The Truth About Climate Science « Climate Progress

Ora, aqui está um sugestão de oferta de um livro a um seu amigo, honesto, capaz de ler em inglês, que "acredite" ser esta "moda" da ecologia e das alterações climáticas mais uma tontice esquerdista como o Professor Pacheco Pereira, lucidamente, aponta... Ou, você já sabia disto? ... Ou, você considera tudo isto uma peça de desinformação da cabala para criar um estado mundial como um cronista do Diário Económico afirmou há algumas semanas atrás? ... Ou, você ignora que o tribunal já iniciou o seu julgamento, e que "o desconhecimento da lei (da verdade) a ninguém aproveita (não pode ser invocado)".

Amazon.com: Doubt is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health (9780195300673): David Michaels: Books: "Editorial Reviews Review

'In Doubt Is Their Product, David Michaels gives a lively and convincing history of how clever public relations has blocked one public health protection after another. The techniques first used to reassure us about tobacco were adapted to reassure us about asbestos, lead, vinyl chloride-and risks to nuclear facilities workers, where Dr. Michaels' experience as the relevant Assistant Secretary of Energy gave him an inside view. And if you're worried about climate change, keep worrying, because the same program is underway there.'--Donald Kennedy, Editor-in-Chief, Science

'We live in an age of unprecedented disinformation, misinformation, and outright lying by those in power. This important book shows who profits by misleading the public-and who ultimately pays with their health.'--Eric Schlosser, author of Fast Food Nation

'This well-researched book by someone who truly knows the system is a must read for anyone who wants to understand the cozy relationship between industry and regulatory agencies on matters that affect the health and safety of our families and neighbors. The cited examples illustrate how, with the help of irresponsible members of Congress and other public officials, corporate greed can trump any sense of ethics, morality, and human compassion.'--Neal Lane, former Science Advisor to President Bill Clinton and former Director of the National Science Foundation

'This brave, shocking book exposes the abuse of science by government and industry in ways that endanger the workplace, the home, the water supply, the air quality-in fact, our planet as a whole. David Michaels speaks authoritatively from his firsthand experience as a champion of occupational safety and health. He tells a terrific story.'--Dava Sobel, author of Longitude and Galileo's Daughter

'In Doubt Is Their Product, David Michaels calls out the corporations you'll recognize them that bankroll lobbyists and unethical scientists to attack factual evidence that their products, such as asbestos, lead, and tobacco, are deadly.'--Vanity Fair, Green Issue, May 2008

'David Michaels has written a powerful, thorough indictment of the way big business has ignored, suppressed or distorted vital scientific evidence to the detriment of the public's health.'--Nature From Newsweek, 5/12/08

That science can be bought is hardly news to anyone who knows about tobacco 'scientists.' But how pervasive, effective and stealthy this science-for-hire is-as masterfully documented by David Michaels of George Washington University in his new book, 'Doubt Is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health'-will shock anyone who still believes that 'science' and 'integrity' are soulmates. In studies of how toxic chemicals affect human health, Michaels told me, 'It's quite easy to take a positive result [showing harmful effects] and turn it falsely negative. This epidemiological alchemy is used widely.' -Sharon Begley From Nature, 6/12/08

David Michaels has written a powerful, thorough indictment of the way big business has ignored, suppressed or distorted vital scientific evidence to the detriment of the public's health. Doubt Is Their Product catalogues numerous corporate misdemeanours, especially in the United States, from the criminal neglect of the dangerous nature of asbestos and the lies told by the tobacco industry, to the suppression of adverse findings of deaths caused by the anti-inflammatory drug Vioxx and the increased risk of suicide among teenagers taking selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors for depression. The book concludes with a list of prescriptions for securing better regulation and greater protection for the public, mainly through increased public disclosure of vested interests. -Dick Taverne

'The book is a shocking portrayal of the tactics used by corporate America to delay public health and environmental regulation of their products for the sake of profit...It is a must read for anyone interested in public health and environmental protection.'--Chemical & Engineering News '

...Doubt Is Their Product reminds one of deeper risks that threaten scientific fields and democratic deliberation. ...The scientific community and the public need to be on guard against such abuses; Michaels's history of these events sounds an alert that must not be ignored.'--Durrants One of Library Journal's top 10 sci-tech books of 2008! Received an Honorable Mention in the Society for Environmental Journalism's 2009 Awards for Reporting on the Environment for the category Rachel Carson Environment Book Award.

 'Doubt is our product,' a cigarette executive once observed, 'since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy.' In this eye-opening expose, David Michaels reveals how the tobacco industry's duplicitous tactics spawned a multimillion dollar industry that is dismantling public health safeguards. Product defense consultants, he argues, have increasingly skewed the scientific literature, manufactured and magnified scientific uncertainty, and influenced policy decisions to the advantage of polluters and the manufacturers of dangerous products. To keep the public confused about the hazards posed by global warming, second-hand smoke, asbestos, lead, plastics, and many other toxic materials, industry executives have hired unscrupulous scientists and lobbyists to dispute scientific evidence about health risks. In doing so, they have not only delayed action on specific hazards, but they have constructed barriers to make it harder for lawmakers, government agencies, and courts to respond to future threats. The Orwellian strategy of dismissing research conducted by the scientific community as 'junk science' and elevating science conducted by product defense specialists to 'sound science' status also creates confusion about the very nature of scientific inquiry and undermines the public's confidence in science's ability to address public health and environmental concerns Such reckless practices have long existed, but Michaels argues that the Bush administration deepened the dysfunction by virtually handing over regulatory agencies to the very corporate powers whose products and behavior they are charged with overseeing. In Doubt Is Their Product Michaels proves, beyond a doubt, that our regulatory system has been broken. He offers concrete, workable suggestions for how it can be restored by taking the politics out of science and ensuring that concern for public safety, rather than private profits, guides our regulatory policy."

Consequência:

On environment, Obama and scientists take hit in poll - washingtonpost.com: "There's also rising public doubt and growing political polarization about what scientists have to say on the environment, and a widespread perception that there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether global warming is happening."

No entretanto:

Further reading of stolen emails reveals scientists searching for the truth « Climate Progress: "I have spent the last week reading far more emails belonging to other people than I ever would have liked. While a number of the emails have been flogged around the blogosphere and captured much of the attention, I found that a lot of emails worth seeing have gotten no attention at all. Including some that show that the denialista’s claims of a grand conspiracy is more of a grand hallucination. Because the stolen emails contain plenty of discussions that reveal just how hard the scientists work to make sure they are getting the information right. That’s Pete Altman, NRDC’s Climate Campaign Director, writing last week on the Switchboard blog on the stolen emails you haven’t heard about."

E continua ... veja, descubra, o que isto tem a ver com o aquecimento global

Open Left:: How little Palin supporters know. Not a surprise, but a reminder. And....

O que muita gente esquece, ou não sabe

The Known Universe (Video) | Universe Today

E continua ... mais da "crença" no aquecimento global

NASA Unveils Amazing GHG Models | ecogeek.org "NASA's Aqua spacecraft has been taking daily CO2 measurements with its Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument (AIRS) for the past seven years and now all that information gathering has led to beautiful and frightening maps and models of the concentration and movement of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. [...]

The data reveals major findings like a belt-like ring of CO2 in the southern hemisphere where it acts as a sink for CO2 from the northern hemisphere. Also, the data shows the strong correlation between a rise in CO2 and a rise in water vapor, leading to "exacerbated" warming.

You can check out all of the amazing models, including global CO2, water vapor and methane movements here."

E continua ... esclarecimento para a ausência: é uma mais deprimente do que a outra

Estou deprimido: a política nacional está deprimente; as opiniões (de alguns) sobre o aquecimento global são deprimentes. Consequência: tenho cerca de 100 notas guardadas e não publicadas.

A que se segue -  mais um exemplo acabado da evidência científica sobre o aquecimento global - lia-a há bocado; estive tentado em publicá-la como um adicional a um comentário irónico-pedagógico que fiz por dever de cidadania a um apontamento sobre a "crença" no aquecimento global, saída num blogue regional, no :ilhas, mas não estive para isso - que se dane: não há mesmo pachorra.

Earth's Upper Atmosphere is Cooling | Universe Today: "New measurements from a NASA satellite show a dramatic cooling in the upper atmosphere that correlates with the declining activity of the current solar cycle. For the first time, researchers can show a timely link between the Sun and the climate of Earth's thermosphere, the region above 100 km, an essential step in making accurate predictions of climate change in the high atmosphere. This finding also correlates with a fundamental prediction of climate change theory that says the upper atmosphere will cool in response to increasing carbon dioxide.[...]"

Deviam (como sempre) ler a notícia na totalidade.

E continua ... opiniões em português

ambio: Incerteza e política | Miguel B. Araújo: "A questão de fundo, de um ponto de vista político, é como gerir o risco associado às alterações climáticas mesmo aceitando que existem incertezas sobre as projecções oferecidas pelo IPCC. Se traduzirmos a incerteza em probabilidade e assumindo, por hipótese, que os cépticos estão correctos, estariamos perante um cenário de elevado impacte mas baixa probabilidade. Assumindo que damos igual crédito a cada um dos lados, teriamos elevado impacte e probabilidade intermedia. Na prática, a balança da evidência favorece claramente as projecções (e observações) disponíveis pelo que estamos perante um cenário de elevado impacte e alta probabilidade."

Este blogue é português e, pelo que tenho lido, bem informado sobre o debate das alterações climáticas. A nota que se referencia demonstra-o - é reproduzido também um artigo do The Economist.

Um reparo: é certo que existem incertezas quanto às projeccções do IPCC, mas até agora o que tem vindo a verificar-se é que foram demasiado optimistas o que obrigou a sua actualização para Copenhaga.

E continua ... a opinião dos ursos

More polar bear gallows humor « Climate Progress 

Clicar na figura para ampliá-la

E continua ... uma demonstração contabilistica

"[...]These days, this has become a bit easier, as several groups have developed fast-response tools that can assess the climatic significance (or lack thereof) of a new emissions pledge. For the Copenhagen talks, three groups, under the mantle of Climate Interactive, have joined forces and produced a single barometer of progress produced by creating an ensemble of their model results. [...]"

Tally of CO2 Pledges Misses ‘Safe’ Zone - Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com

_____________________
PS: Sugere-se que cliquem sobre a figura animada!

E continua ... mas todos merecendo ser lidos:

• ambio: Climategate: Resposta a Delgado Domingos (via  Quinta do Sargaçal – Climategate: Resposta a Delgado Domingos)

• How the climate change global editorial project came about | Environment | guardian.co.uk: "Today 56 major newspapers in 45 countries speak with one voice on climate change ahead of the Copenhagen summit. This is how it happened"

• British PM Gordon Brown attacks “anti-science, flat-earth climate sceptics” while UK Conservatives reaffirm climate science and need for “desperately urgent” Copenhagen deal | Climate Progress

• Why two degrees really matters « Climate Progress Most CP readers know about the 2°C warming limit, but many don’t appreciate its full implications. This short essay by two of the analysts who completed the first comprehensive analysis of that limit back in 1989 elaborates on the most important of these implications. Author bios and all references are at the end. Koomey has been a friend and colleague for more than a decade and a half. The figure comes from MetroNaturel.

• Climate Panel Defends its Findings and Members - Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com

• U.S. conservative’s definition of ‘fascism’: Defending climate science from Exxon-Mobil corruption « Climate Progress
  

• RealClimate: Who you gonna call?: "The problem of ‘false balance’ in reporting — the distortions that can result from trying give equal time to the two perceived sides of an issue — is well known. In an excellent editorial a few years ago, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer called for a greater emphasis on truth, rather than ‘balance’. Unfortunately, this basic element of careful journalism seems to have been cast aside, especially in recent weeks."

Nota: Clicar nas imagens para as ver melhor.

Um pouco de dissonância cognitiva

Vem a qualificar aquilo que se referiu aqui:

Economist's View: "Can Science Fight Media Disinformation?": "Is better science education the answer to our 'media disinformation' problem?: War Is Peace: Can Science Fight Media Disinformation?, by Lawrence M. Krauss, Commentary, Scientific American: ...The rise of a ubiquitous Internet, along with 24-hour news channels has, in some sense, had the opposite effect from what many might have hoped such free and open access to information would have had. It has instead provided free and open access, without the traditional media filters, to a barrage of disinformation. Nonsense claims had more difficulty gaining traction in the days when print journalism held sway and newspaper editors had the final word on what made its way into homes and when television news consisted of a half-hour summary of what a trained producer thought were the most essential stories of the day."

Curioso

Can you tell the language of the mother from her baby's cry?

Não era sem tempo que alguém nos Açores começasse a dizer isto:

"Hidratos de carbono contribuem para a obesidade "O principal problema dos regimes alimentares seguidos actualmente pela maior parte da população é o excesso de hidratos de carbono, ou seja, as massas, o arroz, a batata, o pão, as bolachas, entre outros. Quem o diz é Frederico Pacheco, nutricionista e responsável pela PH Clinic, um espaço em S. Miguel que lida diariamente com problemas de nutrição e que visa melhorar os regimes alimentares dos seus clientes. 

De acordo com o especialista, cerca de 70% da alimentação do grosso da população açoriana consiste em hidratos de carbono, o que é excessivo, tendo em conta que essa percentagem não deveria superar os 28%. Na maior parte dos casos, tratam-se de alimentos processados, que na opinião do especialista, deveriam ter um menor peso na nossa alimentação. [...]"

Expresso das Nove:

Pois!

Canibais e Reis » Blog Archive » A verdadeira razão da extinção!

Alegoria correcta a mais de um título

Mankind on Thin Ice « Climate Progress
________

PS (1): Li o que se segue, logo a seguir a ter colocado o cartoon acima, e não é que tive razão com a epígrafe desta nota:

Scientist’s Himalayan mission provides unwelcome proof: glaciers are dying: "Inching over the treacherous surface of the Rathong glacier, almost 5,000 metres (16,400ft) high in the eastern Himalayas, Dr Shresth Tayal stooped to inspect a 7m steel rod he buried vertically in the ice six months ago. After a decade studying Himalayan glaciers, he had expected to find at least half the rod exposed -- an alarming enough indication of how fast the Rathong is melting -- but even he was surprised by what he found last week. 'Six metres in six months,' he cried, breathing hard in the thin mountain air as The Times and the rest of his team stepped gingerly between hidden crevasses and gushing rivulets of freshly melted ice. 'It's pathetic,' he said. 'The glacier is dying.'"
________
PS (2): Esta tese já foi referida em notas anteriores:

How do we convince our inner caveman to be greener?: "Despite mournful polar bears and charts showing carbon emissions soaring, most people find it hard to believe that global warming will affect them personally. Recent polls by the Pew Research Centre in Washington, DC, found that 75-80 per cent of participants regarded climate change as an important issue. But respondents ranked it last on a list of priorities.

This disparity largely stems from a feeling of powerlessness. 'When we can't actually remove the source of our fear, we tend to adapt psychologically by adopting a range of defence mechanisms,' says Tom Crompton, change strategist for the environmental organisation WWF. 'These may range from blaming others to manifesting themselves as apathy.' Part of the fault lies with our inner caveman.

Evolution has programmed humans to pay most attention to issues that will have an immediate impact. Our ancestors fretted about club-swinging neighbours and the predator at the watering hole. Any carbon emissions from the cave didn't make the grade then and still don't today. 'We worry most about now because if we don't survive for the next minute, well, we're not going to be around in ten years' time,' . [...]"

Lido hoje no Diário Económico - todas merecem ser lidas (e já agora, como TPC, qual é a parte que se aplica aos Açores?)

Como resolver o problema do défice? | Bruno Proença | Económico:
Há um problema de endividamento, nomeadamente do Estado, e falta competitividade externa. São dificuldades estruturais. Ou seja, já andavam por cá antes da crise internacional. E, portanto, agora que a tempestade está a passar, eles cá continuam. Durante os últimos dois anos, ninguém falou deles mas agora é altura de voltarem à agenda política.

E o mais urgente é o endividamento, particularmente o das Administrações Públicas. A verdade é que na saída da crise, o Estado português tem um défice acima de 8% e a dívida pública corresponde a 100% do PIB. Pior era difícil. O Governo argumenta que défices altos é uma realidade em vários países europeus e nos Estados Unidos. É verdade. Mas também é verdade que esses países têm um nível de riqueza superior e economias capazes de gerar níveis de crescimento mais fortes. Para Portugal, que está na cauda da Europa, resolver um défice desta dimensão é uma grande dor de cabeça. E, no final, a factura vai ser paga pelos mesmos: os contribuintes. Falta saber de que maneira.

Destruição criativa | Carlos Marques de Almeida | Económico:  
"Diga-se a benefício da verdade que a confusão está instalada. Primeiro, a oposição em bloco acredita piamente que ganhou as eleições ao retirar a maioria absoluta ao PS. Como tal, a oposição empenha-se na revisão da obra socialista porque entende ser esse o seu legítimo mandato. Não existe visão institucional nem perspectiva de alternativa viável, tanto mais que tudo se resume a uma deriva temperamental ditada por critérios políticos de oportunidade. No fundo, a oposição faz política mas não tem um conjunto de políticas. 

Depois é no Governo que reside a maior surpresa. O PS acredita que ganhou as eleições com mandato para governar, só que o Governo congelou a acção política refugiando-se numa peculiar expectativa. Desconfortável com a minoria, o primeiro-ministro perdeu o apetite para o exercício do cargo. O Governo não tem iniciativa, nem agenda, nem sopro reformador. Em minoria, o Governo do PS não governa, gere uma situação desfavorável e deixa o país político a apodrecer. [será cedo para o dizer, mas que há o perigo, isso há ...] [...]"

Crónica feminina | Marta Rebelo | Económico:
"[...] A discussão deste tema tem de ganhar mais rotina, porque quando olhamos para a representação feminina política, empresarial e até académica, somos forçados a concluir que a meritócracia é uma falácia, e tirando as excepções que confirmam a regra, só pela via da imposição ou da demografia - que faz antever um futuro de quotas masculinas - se faz a aproximação em órbita à tal 'paridade'. E uma enorme frustração para muitas, mas sobretudo para a minha geração."

Como poderei enfatizar o meu acordo com o que se diz abaixo?

• arquivo: Imaginação Informada | Pedro Adão e Silva: 

"Brian Eno é um notável músico, mas também um surpreendente colunista político [...] No seu último texto - 'The post-theoretical age' - chama a atenção para o facto de vivermos numa era onde o debate é mais informado do que nunca. Dos blogue ao Twitter, assistimos a uma democratização do acesso a dados. As consequências são claras: 'Na ausência de dados, teorizamos. [na má acepção, ou na acepção trivial] Na abundância, só temos de fazer as contas.' O que poderia parecer uma negação da dissensão política, não o é. Com a massificação da informação estamos a construir as ferramentas intelectuais que vão decidir o futuro. 

Perante este novo contexto, o conservadorismo leva vantagem: enquanto os progressistas se inclinam perante um futuro ainda indefinido, os conservadores agarram-se ao passado e sabem exactamente o que não querem. O futuro é para os progressistas um 'acto colectivo de imaginação informada', sendo que a qualidade da informação está a melhorar. Eno não o diz, mas informação pública de qualidade é o alfa e o ómega das políticas progressistas. Se há domínio no qual, em Portugal, há défices gritantes é esse. Défices que minam a confiança no debate público democrático. É por isso que o exercício de desinformação orçamental feito ao longo deste ano, sendo politicamente grave, é, acima de tudo, uma limitação à imaginação do futuro."[publicado no i]

A valorização do Euro

"There is widespread agreement that one of the root causes of the Great Credit Crisis of 2008 was the interaction between global imbalances and under-regulated financial systems. The savings of surplus countries created a wave of money which washed into deficit countries, looking for high returns while simultaneously helping to keep interest rates low. 

Where financial industries were allowed sufficient latitude, the result was excessive leverage and risk-taking, and ultimately catastrophe. 

It might therefore appear to be good news that these imbalances contracted sharply during 2008-2009. According to the IMF, the US current account deficit shrank from 4.9% of GDP in 2008 to 2.6% in 2009, while the Japanese surplus fell from 3.2% of GDP to 1.9%, and the Chinese surplus fell from 9.8% of GDP to 7.8%. The Eurozone current account was fairly balanced before the crisis, and remains so, but within the Eurozone imbalances also fell: the German current surplus contracted from 6.4% of GDP to 2.9%, while the Irish deficit fell from 5.2% of GDP to 1.7%."

Mas os problemas não se foram embora. Continuar a ler em:

Via The Irish Economy:  Rebalancing at Europe's expense

E continua ... a tentativa de criar problemas a Copenhaga (com mais ataques a centros de investigação climática) e mais pedagogia, agora sobre como se faz ciência - leitura recomendada

• Watergate redux: Break-ins reported at another top climate research center | Grist: 

"It has now been reported that the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Center is not the only victim of such a criminal invasion: burglars and hackers have also attacked the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis at the University of Victoria in British Columbia: Andrew Weaver, a University of Victoria scientist and key contributor to the Nobel prize-winning work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says there have been a number of attempted breaches in recent months, including two successful break-ins at his campus office in which a dead computer was stolen and papers were rummaged through. These attacks go beyond simple burglary. University of Victoria spokeswoman Patty Pitts told the National Post “there have also been attempts to hack into climate scientists’ computers, as well as incidents in which people impersonated network technicians to try to gain access to campus offices and data.” 

For thirty years, defenders of a pollution-based economy have intimidated, smeared, and suppressed climate science, using a playbook perfected by the tobacco industry and Karl Rove. Now—as the United States, led by President Obama, finally appears ready to join the world in the fight against global warming—the opponents of reform are resorting to criminal desperation, harkening back to the paranoia-fueled extremes of Richard Nixon."

• RealClimate: Unsettled Science: 

"Unusually, I’m in complete agreement with a recent headline on the Wall Street Journal op-ed page: “The Climate Science Isn’t Settled” 

The article below is the same mix of innuendo and misrepresentation that its author normally writes, but the headline is correct. The WSJ seems to think that the headline is some terribly important pronouncement that in some way undercuts the scientific consensus on climate change but they are simply using an old rhetorical ‘trick’. The phrase “the science is settled” is associated almost 100% with contrarian comments on climate and is usually a paraphrase of what ’some scientists’ are supposed to have said [...]."

E continua ... de diversos ângulos

• The century's defining issue | The Economist - remete para um conjunto de artigos sobre a questão do aquecimento global.
• Science advisor John Holdren on the hacked emails and the state of climate science « Climate Progress  
• Mike Hulme: The Science and Politics of Climate Change - WSJ.com: "These instinctive reactions fail to place the various aspects of our knowledge about climate change—scientific insights, political values, cultural moods, personal beliefs—in right relationship with each other. Too often, when we think we are arguing over scientific evidence for climate change, we are in fact disagreeing about our different political preferences, ethical principles and value systems."
• Quinta do Sargaçal – Literatura céptica: "Um anónimo inteligente deixou num comentário do Ambio uma lista de 450 artigos sujeitos a arbitragem científica supostamente escritos pelos cépticos climáticos. É um número impressionante e o Miguel B. Araújo achou curioso — porque suponho eu —, tanto quanto se sabe, artigos sujeitos a arbitragem científica a negar o aquecimento global são muito poucos."
• What percentage of global warming is due to human causes vs. natural causes? « Climate Progress: "What percentage of global warming is due to human causes vs. natural causes? Why increasing CO2 is a significant problem -- in six easy steps"
• An astronomical perspective on climate change | Universe Today
• Copenhagen climate conference: Emission impossible | Environment | The Guardian: "Two of the top thinkers on climate change explain why the most important political gathering of our time will succeed or fail"
• Copenhagen: The era of climate stability is coming to an end | Environment | The Guardian: "For about 10,000 years, our climate on Earth has been stable. Remarkably stable, in fact. Since the end of the last ice age, we humans have spent 400 generations taking advantage of this stability to build our civilisation. We have had warm periods and little ice ages; but the changes have been small. We have always known pretty much when it will rain, what the temperature will be each summer and winter, and how high the rivers will flow. This benign climate is arguably the main reason why our species has been able to progress. Why, within 400 generations, we have gone from the scattered tribes of spear-carriers and fire-raisers who emerged from their caves at the end of the ice age to become the first farmers, metallurgists, urbanists, industrialists and now the seven billion inhabitants of a digitised, globalised world."
•  Open Left:: A deeper look at global warming denialist attacks

Outra sobre a iliteracia científica

O que se diz no artigo do Guardian é curioso porque imputa a responsabilidade maior da não aceitação da teoria da evolução (no sentido de resultado científico comprovado)  ao desconhecimento da ciência: British creationists: some numbers | Andrew Brown | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk: "Those who reject Darwinism in Britain are numerous, largely irreligious, and ignorant of science".

No entretanto, Dawkins no seu último livro publicado em Portugal, "O espectáculo da vida - a prova da evolução", num apêndice, dá conta dos resultados de uma sondagem do Eurobarómetro, em 2005, sobre o posicionamento dos cidadãos dos diversos estados europeus quanto ao assunto.

Em resposta à questão: "Os seres humanos , tal como hoje os conhecemos, desenvolveram-se a partir de uma espécie animal primitiva", os portugueses responderam: 64 % (verdadeiro); 21 % (falso); 15 % (não sabe). Escalonados pelos resultados do "verdadeiro", os portugueses ficam em 18º lugar em 32. Dawkins refere ainda outras questões e resultados. Sinceramente, eu estava à espera que fosse pior.

"Gráficos mais assustadores do ano" - literacia em Portugal

A Margens de erro chama a atenção para um estudo: " A Dimensão Económica da Literacia em Portugal:
Uma Análise"dizendo que tem os gráficos mais assustadores do ano: ver Margens de erro: Prémio "Gráficos mais assustadores do ano".

Não li o estudo, mas já o inspeccionei: concordo com a opinião da Margens de erro, por isso recomendo que aceda ao estudo, e assuste-se com o que aí se diz (à luz da situação do desemprego em Portugal).

Vacinação

Eu estou de acordo com o que diz o artigo. Questiono-me é sobre as razões da descrença e desconfiança que existem sobre o assunto, e, em particular, a oriunda de sectores inesperados (pelo menos, para mim). Como é dito abaixo, houve sempre desconfiança em relação à vacinação - afigura-se-me é que, desta feita, o movimento tem uma força e uma amplitude inusitadas.

"I wonder". Terá a ver, por um lado, com a desconfiança (eu desconfio sempre) sobre os motivos e estrutura de valores que formatam a actuação das grandes empresas farmacêuticas (veja-se como actuam em terrenos favoráveis como os EUA)? Ou, terá a ver, também, com a ileteracia científica, e a desconfiança sobre a actividade científica promovida por interesses empresariais, agora, ligados à energia fóssil, mas antes, à indústria do tabaco, dos asbetos e do chumbo?

Swine flu vaccine is vital | Robert Read | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk: "Many people are facing the question of whether to vaccinate themselves and their children against pandemic influenza H1N1 (so-called swine flu) – a vaccine that will provide safe and effective protection against a debilitating and potentially fatal illness. But the question comes at a time when some experts are concerned that a vociferous anti-vaccine lobby will undermine the mass vaccination campaigns being rolled out across Europe, putting the public and individuals' health at risk.  [...]

[...] The anti-vaccination movement took off in the 19th century as immunisation against smallpox was encouraged and, for example in the UK was then made compulsory by parliament in the 1840s and 1850s. As a 2002 article in the BMJ showed, arguments against the use of vaccines have barely changed in 150 years – opponents cite that they cause illness, they are ineffective, vaccination campaigns are an alliance for profit between government and industry, they are a poisonous chemical cocktail, immunity after vaccination is temporary, and a healthy lifestyle is an effective alternative.[...]"

Também tem a ver com visão, com a capacidade de pensar o médio e longo prazo, e o facto daquilo que é necessário, ser necessário num leque diversificado de domínios

FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Time is up for short-term thinking in capitalism

É de Al Gore e muito interessante - merece ser lido

Astronomy Picture of the Day - 2009 December 3: Galáxia com Anel Polar

Polar Ring Galaxy NGC 660 

Clicar para aceder à imagem maior  

Explanation: NGC 660 lies near the center of this intriguing field of galaxies swimming within the boundaries of the constellation Pisces. Over 20 million light-years away, its peculiar appearance marks it as a polar ring galaxy. A rare galaxy type, polar ring galaxies have a substantial population of stars, gas, and dust orbiting in rings nearly perpendicular to the plane of a flat galactic disk. The bizarre configuration could have been caused by the chance capture of material from a passing galaxy by the disk galaxy, with the captured debris strung out in a rotating ring. Polar Ring galaxies can be used to explore the shape of the galaxy's otherwise unseen dark matter halo by calculating the dark matter's gravitational influence on the rotation of the ring and disk. Broader than the disk, NGC 660's ring spans about 40,000 light-years."

Astronomy Picture of the Day, NASA (Archive, 2009 December 3)

Uma outra estratégia "henriquina", e mais sobre outras "Terras"

The Space Review: First stop for Flexible Path?: "[...] the White House and NASA are pondering the future of human space flight for the United States, one strategy for doing it that was proposed by that committee has garnered a lot of attention. The flexible path—or flexpath strategy, as it is more compactly known—is less a detailed plan and more a guiding philosophy for future work. Guided by this philosophy, humans would visit sites never visited before and extend our knowledge of how to operate in space, while traveling greater and greater distances from Earth, as opposed to efforts directed at a single solar system body, such as the Moon or Mars."

Superior Super Earths | Physorg.com
Super Earths are named for their size, but these planets - which range from about 2 to 10 Earth masses - could be superior to the Earth when it comes to sustaining life. They could also provide an answer to the ‘Fermi Paradox’: Why haven’t we been visited by aliens? 

Neste blogue, há muito mais sobre isto (pesquisar sob "henriquina", "paradoxo de fermi", etc.). 

Da necessidade de visão nas empresas. E na política?

"A vision is the image that a business must have of its aims and goals before it sets out to reach them. It is a bit like the old saying: “If you don’t know where you’re going, then for sure you won’t get there.”  [...]

To choose a direction, an executive must first have developed a mental image of the possible and desirable future state of the organisation. This image, which we call a vision, may be as vague as a dream or as precise as a goal or a mission statement. [...]

Great leaders create visions. [...] The most successful leader of all is the one who sees another picture not yet actualised. He sees the things which belong in his present picture but which are not yet there.

This description of Napoleon is by Louis Madelin, his contemporary and biographer: He would deal with three or four alternatives at the same time and endeavour to conjure up every possible eventuality—preferably the worst.  [...]"

Naturalmente, todos têm uma visão, e constroem cenários. A visão e os cenários reportam-se ao que os preocupa, ao que pensam, ao que sabem, ao que sabem fazer, e ao que questionam, e tudo isso é que irá determinar a qualidade e a relevância da visão de cada um para a sociedade onde estão inseridos. Não há efectivamente remédios fáceis para a falha, ou pobreza, nos "fundamentals". Por isso, pode-se ser um grande "político" - qualidade medida, por exemplo, pela capacidade de se manter no poder - e ter uma visão medíocre: veja-se o caso de Salazar.

Management idea: Vision | The Economist
 

E continua ... Ainda a revelação dos e-mails dos Climatologistas britânicos

Ainda está a dar, mas, confesso, não ter muita paciência: estou na minha fase estóica quanto à burrice - muita gente só muda, quando muda, face aos factos, e mesmo aí, muitas vezs tende a racionalizar de modo defensivo aquilo que contrariando as suas convicções, deveria levar à mudança da sua opinião. Por isso, desta vez, não visitei o Blasfémias. A espécie humana vive doente de alguns dos "memes" que cria.

Por isso vou referenciando alguma da coisa que vai sendo dito a propósito da exposição pública dos e-mails, para referência futura (ver também aqui). No que se segue, chamo a atenção para as duas primeiras referências: façam favor de cotejar a opinião de um cronista português, Fernando Gabriel, denegacionista, e as preocupações de Chuck Norris (sim, esse: o ranger do Texas). No entretanto, o mundo vai dando de si, nos pólos, nas montanhas, nos mares, em todo o sítio. 

.Ainda Orwell | Fernando Gabriel | EconómicoVideo:

.Chuck Norris – Copenhagen Talks To Forge “One World Order” « Dprogram.net: "(SteveWatson) – TV star and political commentator Chuck Norris has voiced concerns that the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, beginning December 7, represents an attempt to further an agenda to create a “one world order” at the expense of national sovereignty."

.On “climategate” | Grist

.Science historian Weart: “We’ve never before seen a set of people accuse an entire community of scientists of deliberate deception and other professional malfeasance. Even the tobacco companies never tried to slander legitimate cancer researchers.” « Climate Progress

.Pretending the climate email leak isn't a crisis won't make it go away | George Monbiot | Environment | guardian.co.uk: "Climate sceptics have lied, obscured and cheated for years. That's why we climate rationalists must uphold the highest standards of science"

.Skeptics Exaggerating Science Scandal to Derail Copenhagen Climate Talks | SolveClimate.com

The newspaper that publishes George Will (and Sarah Palin) editorializes: “Many — including us — find global warming deniers’ claims irresponsible.” « Climate Progress

.Climate Feedback: CRU scientists in leaked data row respond

.Climatologist at centre of leaked email row dismisses conspiracy claims | Environment | guardian.co.uk "The climatologist at the centre of the leaked emails row said today that he "absolutely" stands by his research and that any suggestion that the emails provide evidence of a conspiracy to manipulate or hide data that do not support the theory of man-made climate change was "complete rubbish"."[...] Jones said the timing of the theft suggested it was intended to cause maximum embarrassment ahead of the Copenhagen climate talks next month: "One has to wonder if it is a coincidence that this email correspondence has been stolen and published at this time. This may be a concerted attempt to put a question mark over the science of climate change in the run-up to the Copenhagen talks."

.Reuters: “ANALYSIS-Hacked climate e-mails awkward, not game changer”; Hackergate contest — Rename “Climategate” after the crime, not the victim « Climate Progress