Ficção Científica como criadora da "inveja do futuro"

Bem, sejamos francos - A atitude derrisória de alguns quanto à ficção científica é, no melhor dos casos, ignorância, e no pior deles, provincianismo cultural ...

A nota do Centauri Dreams é muito interessante, e deveria ser lida na totalidade. A expressão "inveja do futuro" é magnífica. Ler em Science Fiction and Interstellar Thinking 

Um excerto da nota:

"Garretson is a futurist and strategic thinker [...] He’s absorbed by the idea of using science fiction as a way of shaping resiliency and encouraging futuristic thinking, calling SF “…a kind of marketing for a grand future for humanity. It creates a need. It creates future envy. We get hooked on a vision, whether Utopian, or just plain cooler than today, and we want to bring it into being.”

[...] As to the objection that science fiction is escapist in its orientation, Garretson has this to say: "I think SF is fundamentally different than other fiction in that for many of us, it is the opposite of escapist. I do not read SF to get out of the present because I am pained by my present condition, but rather to inform and give meaning to my plans for the future and action in the present because I am optimistic about either the present or the future. [...]

I think what Garretson is getting at here ties directly to our own emphasis on long-term thinking. An optimistic turn of mind is one that sees the power of the individual to shape the future, even when the results one is working toward will not be accomplished necessarily within one’s own lifetime. We all need to be reminded of that outlook, especially when the slow pace of change (and the ongoing budgetary problems involved in any space exploration) tempt us into disillusionment. [...]

Let me close by quoting Garretson again, this time on where he sees science fiction going: I am also of the opinion that the best way to predict the future is to create it. So let me attempt to create the future of science fiction with a bit of criticism. I think today’s sci-fi is too dark, it is too pre-occupied with humanity’s problems, and not sufficiently concerned with stroking its ambitions and setting new vistas. I think science fiction needs to pull back a bit from the space-opera fantasy, and transcend the cyber-punk darkness. [...] I think right now we most need science fiction that creates a compelling vision of where we can take humanity over perhaps 3 generations using real, not just imagined technology… I believe there is a real world of the future that could involve a sustainable, developed world getting its energy from Space Solar Power, protecting Earth from asteroids, mining the sky for valuable minerals, and protecting our climate. Where access to space through space planes and other new innovations is common. I think we could use that as a stepping stone to free-flying space colonies. How different would that be? What would it be like to live in that world? What kind of institutions would make it work? How can we hook kids on the science it takes to put it all together? How do we get them to decide: “I want to solve that problem”,”I want to live in that world!”

If we let it tap its deepest roots, science fiction can indeed be the stuff that dreams are made of. Be sure to read all of this absorbing interview."

PS: A explicação da formatação "estranha" resulta de uma tentativa, a ver o que dava, e não conseguir reverter para o normal - não se pretendeu dar qualquer ênfase em especial. Fica, porque, enfim, este é um blogue sempre em construção.

Reduzir o nosso impacto ao mínimo

Isto tem piada, e muito sentido - ainda que não seja a solução porque não é praticável e generalizável. No entanto, obriga-nos a pensar no que será a solução - e a solução, no mínimo, passa também por muitas coisas factíveis, que muitos não se convenceram (ainda) a fazer, como, por exemplo, a reciclagem . Aliás, a importância dessas coisas factíveis, coisas simples, não está tanto no contributo que possam dar para a Solução - mas, na tomada de consciência que traduzem, na disciplina que se cria, nos hábitos que se assumem, e nas consequências sociais dinâmicas que daí podem decorrer. Leiam, e vejam o trailer do filme: tem piada:

Meet the star of 'No impact Man'; No Impact women -Grist

"In November 2006, Michelle Conlin began a year-long experiment in extreme sustainability, resolving to burn no fossil fuels, produce no trash, and eat only food grown within 250 miles of her Greenwich Village home. She gave up nearly all shopping and learned to use cloth diapers for her 2-year-old daughter. She took up bicycling and rode a scooter to work. Describing her earlier self as “espresso-guzzling, retail-worshipping” and a “take-out junkie,” she gave up coffee (with some lapses) and to-go food. Eventually she gave up electricity at home, relying on candles in her 9th-floor apartment and lots of stair climbing."

O partidor Conservador britânico e a Europa

Esta Britain's Conservatives losing their European decency Charlemagne's notebook Economist.com

é uma nota muito informativa sobre diversos items: sobre o modo como o RU viu o alargamento - naturalmente, toda a gente o sabe, mas mesmo assim é não-trivial vê-lo dito com todas as letras -, a questão do rebate orçamental da Margaret Thatcher e como Blair o resolveu (e porquê), e por fim, o mais importante, como The Economist vê, com preocupação, e a partir da sua posição conhecida sobre o futuro da Europa, a posição do Partido Conservador na matéria.

Documentário sobre a evolução

Vale a pena ir ao Canibais e Reis e aceder ao documentário referido aqui, à frente: Canibais e Reis » Blog Archive » “Tornar-se Humano”, um documentário interactivo, desenvolvido pelo Institute for Human Origins, que explica a história da evolução humana. Muito bom e bem interessante.

Isto tem piada

America the sleazy Free exchange Economist.com: "Back in 2006, two economists compared the rate of payment of parking tickets given to United Nation diplomats with levels of domestic corruption in the countries those diplomats represented. They found a striking correlation; the sleazier were the domestic governments, the worse the countries did in paying their parking tickets."

A piada vem a seguir.

Título e subtítulo de um blogue de um economista norte-americano

O blogue em questão chama-se: Paul Krugman Like a Father to Me, e o subtítulo cita a regra de Brad DeLong: "1. Paul Krugman is right. 2. If ever you think Paul Krugman is wrong, refer to rule #1."

No entanto, nos EUA a situação política é ainda mais deprimente...

Mas, apesar de tudo, combate político deprimente é mesmo o que se passa nos EUA, à volta dos pacotes legislativos da saúde e das energias renováveis, eficiência e alterações climáticas. A actuação dos Republicanos é inqualificável - isto não é figura de retórica: objectivamente, é inqualificável - alguns dos Democratas não se portam bem, e o próprio Presidente não escapa a críticas (da esquerda) sobre, não só a condução do processo, como as escolhas feitas. Como o comediante Bill Maher diz (citado aqui): "Os Democratas moveram-se para a direita, e os Republicanos para um hospital psiquiátrico" - a este propósito rever um seu vídeo hilariante (aqui).

Quanto a Obama, não gostaria de algumas coisas que foram ditas neste blogue a seu respeito, durante as primárias, se viessem a revelar como correctas - alguns dos seus actuais críticos foram seus apoiantes desde a primeira hora (Robert Reich é o caso).

Um acervo de referências:

• Op-Ed Columnist - Obama’s Trust Problem - NYTimes.com 
• Robert Reich's Blog: Why the Gang of Six is Deciding Health Care for Three Hundred Million of Us 
• Has Obama lost the trust of progressives, as Krugman says? - Glenn Greenwald - Salon.com 
• Joe Klein on the GOP: “How can you sustain a democracy if one of the two major political parties has been overrun by nihilists? … How can you maintain the illusion of journalistic impartiality when one of the political parties has jump 
• ' Johann Hari: Republicans, religion and the triumph of unreason' by Johann Hari - The Independent - RichardDawkins.net 
• Op-Ed Columnist - The Swiss Menace - NYTimes.com "It was the blooper heard round the world. In an editorial denouncing Democratic health reform plans, Investor’s Business Daily tried to frighten its readers by declaring that in Britain, where the government runs health care, the handicapped physicist Stephen Hawking “wouldn’t have a chance,” because the National Health Service would consider his life “essentially worthless.”Professor Hawking, who was born in Britain, has lived there all his life, and has been well cared for by the National Health Service, was not amused. "
• Robert Reich's Blog: The Public Option's Last Stand, and the Public's 
• The public option as a signal - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

Qual a razão para o ódio ao Sócrates?

António Correia de Campos comenta em Sementes de insegurança Económico o conteúdo da última entrevista televisiva de Manuela Ferreira Leite. Não teria muito a qualificar ao comentário - afigura-se-me correcto, e deve ser lido. 

À medida que as eleições se aproximam o que me impressiona cada vez mais é o modo como o PSD (MFL, Pacheco Pereira, ...) qualifica e ataca Sócrates: o homem teria uma latitude e uma amplitude de vícios incomensurável com a de qualquer outro político de toda a democracia portuguesa - só isso justificará o combate político centrado, quase só, na invocação e escalpelização das suas características, e na adjectivação hiperbólica e desmesurada utilizada para o definir (a de arrogante, é só para começar). Naturalmente, o PCP e o Bloco (mas não só) utilizam o mesmo diapasão. A fazer fé ao que dizem da boca para fora, toda esta gente têm do Sócrates o sentimento que eu só tive sobre algumas pessoas da Administração Bush (a começar pelo próprio), por alguns ditadores, ... e isso é mesmo violento.

Tudo isto cheira-me mal - as razões (tácticas) para a actuação do PSD estarão, pelo menos em parte, inventariadas no artigo do António Correia de Campos. Mas a pergunta em epígrafe incomoda-me: desconfio que o que se passa diz algo não trivial sobre o país que somos - obviamente, diz alguma coisa sobre a classe política que temos.

E continua...

Diversos sobre assuntos ligados às alterações climáticas:

• Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis: "Figure 2. The graph above shows daily sea ice extent as of August 17, 2009. The solid light blue line indicates 2009; the solid dark blue line shows 2008; the dashed green line shows 2007; and the solid gray line indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data. —Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center"

• "So many amplifying methane feedbacks, so litle time to stop them all" Climate Progress "The UK’s National Oceanography Centre in Southampton reports: The warming of an Arctic current over the last 30 years has triggered the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from methane hydrate stored in the sediment beneath the seabed."

• As Arctic Ocean warms, megatonnes of methane bubble up: "It's been predicted for years, and now it's happening. Deep in the Arctic Ocean, water warmed by climate change is forcing the release of methane from beneath the sea floor. Over 250 plumes of gas have been discovered bubbling up from the sea floor to the west of the Svalbard archipelago, which lies north of Norway. The bubbles are mostly methane, which is a greenhouse gas much more powerful than carbon dioxide. The methane is probably coming from reserves of methane hydrate beneath the sea bed. These hydrates, also known as clathrates, are water ice with methane molecules embedded in them. The methane plumes were discovered by an expedition aboard the research ship James Clark Ross, led by Tim Minshull of the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, in the UK."

• "Yvo de Boer of U.N. climate convention says 350 ppm is pipe dream" Grist "“I don’t think there is a hope in hell that people will agree to 350 in Copenhagen. I think we’ll get 2 degrees.” —Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, speaking at a recent meeting with NGO officials. “350” refers to the goal of reducing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 350 parts per million, while “2 degrees” refers to the goal of keeping the global temperature rise to no more than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Both have been discussed as potential targets for a new international climate treaty that will be negotiated in December in Copenhagen."

• Is Northwestern India's breadbasket running out of water?: "The primary reason for such groundwater depletion is irrigation, which has fed the Green Revolution that transformed cereal production in the region and helped sustain a growing population that has reached 114 million people. Between 1970 and 1999 irrigated fields in India tripled in overall extent to cover more than 33 million hectares. That irrigation now looks unsustainable: 'The problem is that groundwater consumption was not capped at a sustainable level and now it will be difficult to curb demand,' Rodell notes. It is also clear that global warming's accelerated melting of the nearby Himalayan glaciers is not the primary culprit in the region's water deficit. These meltwaters feed the rivers of northwestern India and beyond, but that water soon flows out of the area and is lost to it. Even with a generous assumption that all Himalayan glacial melting since 1962 (roughly 13.4 cubic kilometers per year) was concentrated in the 150-kilometer stretch of land closest to the study zone rather than spread across the entirety of the Himalayas, the scientists could explain, at most, 15 percent of the water loss in northwestern India. And the arid region's rainfall levels were above the average of 50 centimeters per year from 2002 to 2008."

• Australia: Farmers face hardship as climate changes: "While politicians are the most visible form of the argument over whether climate change is coming, farmers are living with the reality of it. Extensive research by the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, backed by dozens of independent studies, establishes that global climate change is extending and intensifying the drought. Water resources are strained now and will decline by 9 per cent to 13 per cent over the next 20 years, according to a CSIRO report, the most detailed yet on the river system. And this forecast is predicated on world leaders agreeing to measures that limit global warming to 2 degrees - an outcome seen as ambitious. The CSIRO analysis tests many scenarios and combinations, and few of them look good. The drought across southern NSW and Victoria - equivalent to the once-in-a-lifetime events that hit Australia in the 1890s and 1930s - may never really ''break'' in the traditional sense."

• Climate change already visible on Greenland: "While scientists can't agree on how much or how fast the Greenland ice sheet will melt, what is certain is that the Arctic is warming up faster than the rest of the planet and that Greenland is already losing a large portion of its ice. As scientists continue to debate and take measurements, the effects of climate change are already visible on the island. [...] Ice as far as the eye can see  [...] The boundary between land and ice is striking. At the edge, close to the moraine, ice is a dirty grey color. A half a kilometer on, it's sparkling silvery-white in the Arctic summer sunshine. This far in, the ice is approximately 250 meters thick, according to glacial guide Niklas, who didn't give his last name. In the middle of the ice cap, where the ice is deepest, it is 3.2 kilometers thick. Around 10 years ago, the ice was 40 meters higher than today and the gravel road that leads here from the nearest town, Kangerlussuaq, ran up to the edge of the ice, Niklas said. He added that he isn't sure whether the decrease is a result of climate change, but since climate change has become a popular topic in the media, more visitors have been coming to Greenland. 'They want to see the beautiful country of Greenland,' he said. 'But they want to see if the talk about climate change is correct - and they want to see the ice.'"

• Australia: Study links drought with rising emissions: "Drought experts have for the first time proven a link between rising levels of greenhouse gases and a decline in rainfall. A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed that the drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change. Scientists working on the $7 million South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative said the rain had dropped away because the subtropical ridge - a band of high pressure systems that sits over the country's south - had strengthened over the past 13 years. Last year, using sophisticated computer climate models in the United States, the scientists ran simulations with only the ''natural'' influences on temperature, such as differing levels of solar activity. The model results showed no intensification of the subtropical ridge and no decline in rainfall. But when human influences on the atmosphere were added to the simulations - such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and ozone depletion - the models mimicked what has been observed in south-east Australia: strengthening high pressure systems and the significant loss of rain."

• Early farming methods caused climate change, say researchers Environment guardian.co.uk

De novo, da necessidade de boas estatísticas

Os outros dizem-nos tudo aquilo que necessitamos fazer. Obviamente, para ouvir é necessário estar preparado para tal. O presidente de que se fala abaixo é, como será fácil de perceber, Obama. 

Sobre estatística, neste bogue, existem outros apontamentos (pesquisar a etiqueta estatística):

OMB - Blog Post - Using Statistics to Drive Sound Policy

"The President has made it very clear that policy decisions should be driven by evidence – accentuating the role of Federal statistics as a resource for policymakers.  Robust, unbiased data are the first step toward addressing our long-term economic needs and key policy priorities.

In my speech this morning, I noted two particular areas where more and better data would be useful: health care and education.  In health care, bending the curve on cost growth will require more information about how we’re spending our health dollars, the health outcomes we’re producing, and how specific interventions rank against alternative treatments.  In education, better longitudinal data on the progress of individual students, which can be linked to specific programs and teachers, will go a long way to helping us understand what works better – and what doesn’t -- and as a result, where to target scarce resources to bolster student achievement.

Sound data by themselves are not sufficient to create sound public policy decisions, but the Administration has been clear that data – importantly including the stream of data that comes from Federal statistical sources -- and evidence are a necessary and crucial component in our policy process."  

Eu também ...

- tirado de I Wish They Were Right - Center for American Progress, via Climate Progress.

A visualização dos dados recolhidos pelos satélites

- tirado de Watch Satellite Data In Action Universe Today.

O "Hubble Ultra Deep Field" em 3 dimensões

- tirado de The Hubble Ultra Deep Field in 3D The Big Picture - ler aí para aceder a mais informações.

....

"... é assim que o mundo acaba - não com uma explosão, mas com uma lamúria".

- T.S. Eliot - não sei o contexto, a propósito do qual ele disse isso. Tirei-a de Hobsbawm, da A Era dos Extremos.

Um história relacionada com o festival da canção da Eurovisão

Ler a história completa em "A Eurovision story" A Fistful of Euros, e as conclusões que se podem retirar daí:

"Rovshan Nasirli, a young Eurovision fan living in the Azerbaijani capital Baku, says he was summoned this week to the country’s National Security Ministry — to explain why he had voted for Armenia during this year’s competition in May.

“They wanted an explanation for why I voted for Armenia. They said it was a matter of national security,” Nasirli said. “They were trying to put psychological pressure on me, saying things like, ‘You have no sense of ethnic pride. How come you voted for Armenia?’ They made me write out an explanation, and then they let me go.”

A total of 43 Azeris voted for the Armenian duo Inga and Anush, and their song, “Jan-Jan.” Nasirli, like others, used his mobile phone to send a text message expressing his preference, little imagining his vote would eventually result in a summons from national security officials. (By contrast, 1,065 Armenians voted for the Azerbaijani team, apparently without consequence.)"

Um elevador para o espaço?

A grande restrição para irmos para o espaço, e lá ficar, não é tecnológica - pelos menos na proximidade da Terra -, mas sim económica. Como estamos no fundo de um poço gravitacional, o custo de colocar em órbita qualquer unidade de peso de carga útil é muito elevado. Uma solução possível: um elevador, da superfície da Terra ao espaço. Ficção Científica? Sim, onde li isso pela primeira vez foi num romance de Arthur Clark. Neste momento, enfim, já não estaremos no campo estrito da Ficção Científica: o vídeo e a nota abaixo explicam o pé em que a coisa está.

Ler em The Space Elevator Games -The Next Big Reality TV Show? (VIDEO).

E continua ...

The Tipping Point in Civilizational Collapse:

"Just as biological systems exhibit tipping points which once passed catalyze irreversible and often unpredictable patterns of change, so do civilizations and social structures. In past civilizational collapses, these tipping points were generally catalyzed by soil depletion, resource shortages, environmental degradation, and social upheaval [pesquisar neste blogue sob o nome "Jared Diamond"].

The Earth Policy Institute’s Lester Brown identifies many global factors which may be pushing industrial civilization beyond a tipping point of irreversible change and collapse. Overharvesting of marine fisheries, loss of biodiversity, increased population growth, poor food and water management, the peaking of oil production, social conflict, and climate change are among the pressures breaking down civil social structures."

E continua ...

Se o PM da Índia o diz, quem sou eu para dizer mais alguma coisa.

India: Dry rivers if no steps taken to tackle climate change: PM:

"Glaciers will melt and rivers will go dry if timely steps are not taken to tackle climate change, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said today. Addressing the nation on its 63rd Independence Day, he said the climate change had become an issue of global concern in recent years and India wished to tackle it in partnership with other countries of the world. Declaring that the government was committed to deal with the challenge of climate change, Singh said a decision was taken to set up eight missions in this regard."

E continua ...

Para se perceber o mundo em que vivemos, e um dos factores que conforma o debate sobre o aquecimento global.

Climate-change protests split oil industry:

"Key players in the U.S. oil industry disagree over a plan to send workers to rallies to protest proposed climate-change legislation, industry groups said. The American Petroleum Institute wrote to member companies asking them to stage up to 22 rallies protesting legislation that the API said would increase taxes on the oil industry and create a carbon-trading scheme, the Financial Times reported. The API represents the entire oil industry. But some of its members, which also are part of the U.S. Climate Action Partnership, favor many of President Obama's environmental policies and oppose the plan to send workers to rallies.

Shell, General Electric, Siemens, BP America and ConocoPhillips also belong to the partnership, and Shell calls responding to climate change 'the pro-growth strategy.' Exxon is a leader of the faction of API supporting the rallies and claims the legislation would put oil companies at a disadvantage against global competitors. The API memo was leaked to the environmental group Greenpeace, the Times reported."

E continua ...

O que se disse, na nota anterior, aplica-se na totalidade nesta, também - aliás, alguns dos frequentadores deste blogue, não têm tempo para visitar todas as referências indicadas, donde a repetição permite-lhes apanhar coisas que doutro modo não conseguiriam.

Antarctic glacier melting at faster rate: scientists:

"One of the largest glaciers in Antarctica is thinning at a rate four-times faster than just a decade ago, researchers said Friday. Researchers at the University of Leeds, writing in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, said the Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is thinning at a rate of up to 16 metres a year and has lowered as much as 90 metres in the last decade.

At its current rate of thinning, the glacier could disappear in a century. Previous predictions, based on the glacier's rate of decline a decade ago, said the glacier would likely disappear in 600 years. The Pine Island Glacier is the largest glacier in West Antarctica, and at 175,000 square kilometres is roughly the size of the province of New Brunswick and the island of Newfoundland combined."

E continua ...

Algumas das informações dadas nesta nota, já tinham sido referidas antes, mas um bocado de redundância na transmissão dos factos - de alguns factos, em particular - é sempre aconselhável, como é bem sabido.

Ocean Temperatures Are Highest on Record:

"Average temperatures of waters at the oceans’ surface in July were the highest ever recorded, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. The agency said the average sea surface temperature was 1.06 degrees higher than the 20th-century average of 61.5 degrees. Though July was unusually cool in some areas, like the eastern United States, analysts at the NOAA Climate Data Center said the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.03 degrees higher than the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees, the fifth warmest since worldwide record keeping began in 1880. The agency also said that, on average, Arctic sea ice covered 3.4 million square miles in July, 12.7 percent below the 1979-2000 average and the third lowest on record, after 2007 and 2006."

Logo, da importância das reformas na educação ...

O sistema educativo português estava a produzir os resultados educativos que o País precisava? - não estava! O País estava a despender proporcionalmente o que era necessário para obter esses resultados (à luz dos recursos que os outros estavam a afectar ao mesmo efeito)? De acordo com a OCDE, o esforço era mais do que proporcional, logo, respondendo à pergunta, estava.

Então, por que motivo a indignação contra essa ineficácia não explodiu antes das avaliações, dos estatutos, e de tudo o resto? Aonde a defesa da educação, e da apresentação das correctas e eficazes soluções para os problemas da educação em Portugal, já que o Ministério, nunca, em nenhuma altura, neste e nos outros Governos, de acordo com os sindicatos e a aquisescência da classe, as teve, as soube formular, as soube implementar? Ou a questão da educação só diz respeito ao Ministério?

(a eficácia da educação depende de outros parâmetros - como a família dos alunos - que a escola não consegue controlar - e, eu, até defendo, que nessa vertente a política deveria fazer algo - mas, até que ponto isso funciona como desculpa para que aquilo que está ao alcance da escola fazer, não seja tentado maximizar, nuns casos, e minimizar noutros? A pergunta é retórica).

Ler "Poor student learning explains the Latin American growth puzzle" Vox Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists "Latin Americans are relatively educated, so why has their economic growth lagged over the past four decades? This column attributes the disappointing performance to the difference between educational quantity and quality. Schooling is relevant for economic growth only insofar as it actually improves cognitive skills, and Latin American economies have lagged in terms of educational quality".

PS: Mas, por amor de Deus, até existem histórias de sucesso - o processo demonstrou a sua existência (para recordar, ver aqui)!

Ainda sobre as boas notícias

Ainda sobre os últimos dados da situação económica europeia:

• "Europe Recovers as U.S. Lags Germany, France Escape Recession Even as Consumer Weakness Hobbles America" WSJ, via The fascist octopus has sung its swan song blogging - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com 

• Acabou a recessão!, que bom, que bom - Margens de erro "Saíram os números para o 2º trimestre de 2009. O primeiro-ministro agarra-se aos 0.3% de crescimento do PIB e a oposição agarra-se ao aumento da taxa de desemprego em 0,2 pontos percentuais. Cada um encontrou a sua bóia de salvação. Aconselha-se cautela: ambas as bóias estão furadas."

Sobre os economistas e a crise (V)

São três entrevistas, qualquer delas a mais interessante, feitas por Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues, do blogue Janela na web, a economistas conhecidos sobre a conjuntura económica, sobre o seu contexto, sobre a economia, sobre economistas, .... Recomenda-se (vivamente) a leitura:

• The chief-economist the central bankers do not listened to
• The end of money manager financial capitalism
• «The role of finance has to be fundamentally rethought»

E continua ...

É sobre a Antárctica, glaciares, temperaturas, ciência ... - leitura estimulante: recomenda-se. 

Large Antarctic glacier thinning 4 times faster than it was 10 years ago: “Nothing in the natural world is lost at an accelerating exponential rate like this glacier.”  Climate Progress: "Antarctica is disintegrating much faster than almost anybody imagined. In 2001, the IPCC “consensus” said neither Greenland nor Antarctica would lose significant mass by 2100. They both already are. As Penn State climatologist Richard Alley said in March 2006, the ice sheets appear to be shrinking “100 years ahead of schedule.”"

E continua...

NASA: Second hottest July on record - Climate Progress "Fast on the heels of the second hottest June on record, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies reports that July is also the second hottest on record. [...]"

Convém ler a notícia toda.

Para perceber os EUA - um gráfico sugestivo

Brad DeLong nesta 33Across cita Krugmam, que por sua vez comenta o gráfico acima : "That means that the top 1-10,000 of the American income distribution receives 6% of pretax household income--meaning that their average income is 600 times that of the average."

Sobre os economistas e a crise (IV)

Interessante: ler em Economists, economics, and the crisis vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists.

Notas para a história dos hospitais

Curioso: Economist's View: "Medicine and Society in the Medieval Hospital" - como evoluiram os hospitais ao longo do tempo, e a importância da Revolução Francesa na conformação actual do seu papel.

Krugman discute com Stross a ficção científica, o futuro e muitas mais coisas

Muita piada: ler a transcrição da conversa: Home (Stross Krugman Transcript).

Qualificações das boas notícias

Mais comentários sobre os últimos resultados sobre a economia europeia - bom resultado para Sócrates, em termos de "timing", e a reacção do Ministério das Finanças foi a correcta. No entanto, nem tudo são favas contadas como resulta do que se diz abaixo: 

• Germany’s Economy Returns To (Timid) Growth In Q2 afoe A Fistful of Euros European Opinion (os gráficos foram retirados deste apontamento).

• Europe's turn to gloat Free exchange Economist.com

• Positive GDP Can Occur Mid-Recession The Big Picture: a nota recorda que a ocorrência de um resultado positivo no crescimento do produto num trimestre, só por si não significa nada - outras crises, no seu decurso, foram pontuadas por picos de crescimento.

Economia europeia: o fim da crise?

O WSJ recolhe opiniões: "Economists and others weigh in on the smaller than expected contraction in euro zone GDP and surprising expansions in France and Germany." Ler em JSFrame.

Este promete ...

Ler em Peter Jackson on New SciFi Hit "District 9": Will It Be Bigger Than Space Odyssey: 2001?

Ignomínia

A epígrafe desta nota da Causa Nossa é "Escravatura no Alentejo - ignomínia" e é disso que se trata: quando um indivíduo se revolta com aquilo que sucede a trabalhadores portugueses lá fora, ver que o mesmo sucede, nesta pátria de emigrantes, devido a uns pulhas nacionais, não dá para exprimir aqui, porque estaria, inadmissivelmente, muito longe do politicamente correcto.

O que os outros fazem quanto a estatísticas

Esta referência:  The Irish Economy � Blog Archive � Measuring Ireland’s Progress, remete-nos para uma publicação do serviço de estatística da Irlanda, onde se faz o ponto da situação da Irlanda, no conjunto dos países da Europa (UE e alguns dos outros), por recurso a um leque muito diversificado de indicadores.

Esta publicação tem duas utilidades para nós: primeira utilidade: acaba, "en passant", por via da comparação, por dar a informação sobre a situação de Portugal no que respeita aos mesmos indicadores; segunda utilidade: a do exemplo.

Quanto à questão do exemplo, impõe-se uma precisão: penso que o INE tem algo parecido, mas talvez não tão completo. Mas, mesmo nesse caso, o exemplo é relevante para os Açores, não pelo produto em si - embora, existindo não viesse nenhum mal ao mundo - mas pela atitude contrastante das elites sócio-políticas quanto ao uso e utilidade das estatísticas como suporte da reflexão e actividade política - veja-se o excerto que se escolheu apresentar que ilustra, a meu ver, as diferenças:

"The social partnership agreement 2003-20051 requested the CSO to support a move towards more idence-based policy-making by developing a set of national progress indicators. In its report, Developing Irish Social and Equality Statistics to meet Policy Needs, the NSB asked the CSO to prepare a preliminary national progress indicators report. It was intended that this initial report would facilitate discussions between the main users and producers of key economic and social statistics with a view to reaching consensus on the most appropriate set of indicators to determine whether target national economic and social outcomes are being achieved. The NSB reiterated the need for a key national progress indicators report in its Strategy for Statistics 2003- 20083. The Board requested that the selected indicators should be consistent with international statistical concepts and facilitate international benchmarking."

Eu sou capaz de conjecturar as razões porque as elites locais mostram um completo alheamento sobre o modo de produção estatística local, das suas virtualidades, das suas qualidades e - conjecturemos - das suas limitações. O assunto, que eu me tenha apercebido, nunca mereceu referências públicas - alguém do PSD questionou, em dado momento, o facto do Director ser do PS, mas isso é tontice, e logo não se qualifica como algo relevante - nem provocou uma qualquer reflexão na ALR.

Uma das razões é óbvia e triste (mas não é única): para o tipo de reflexão e de actividade política que têm, estão satisfeitos com a dotação estatística que têm - aliás, nem isso utilizam cabalmente e de modo eficaz.

China vs India

Esta nota Update on China vs India – Chris Blattman dá conta de um conjunto de "links" relacionados com o futuro, e o futuro relativo, da China e da Índia, qual deles o mais interessante, e contendo muita informação sobre a evolução passada desses países e sobre o seu comportamento nesta crise.

A nota faz referência a um WP da NBER onde se compara a performance política-económica da América Latina e de África, após os seus processos de independência dos poderes coloniais - quer num caso, quer no outro, deparamo-nos com o fenómeno das "décadas perdidas"...

Com interesse e piada: o que se pode esperar da evolução futura do trabalho (e de outras coisas)?

Lido em Will technology make workers obsolete? - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com: "Gregory Clark says yes. But I had a somewhat different view in this piece, which I wrote back in 1996 — the closest I’ve ever come to actually writing science fiction".

Aos economistas, Shumpeter recomendava que não fizessem previsões, mas caso não o conseguissem evitar, então deveriam fazer muitas - isso é algo de que, não só os economistas, mas também muito outra gente, não percebem a sabedoria, pelo que dá no que se vê nas discussões do momento (as sérias e as do café). Krugman faz antevisão, e fá-la bem feita - muita, o tempo demonstrará ser errada, como é de esperar; mas toda ela é interessante e geradora de questões, e essas últimas é realmente aquilo que importa ter sempre na bagagem.

Tempestade em Titã - a primeira a ser detectada

Ler em Titan's Desert Sports a Surprising, Powerful Storm Universe Today.

Ainda sobre a classe de estrelas mais favorável ao aparecimento da vida

No seguimento desta nota, sugiro que continuem a ler no Universe Today:

In Praise of K-class Stars:

"When it comes to exoplanet speculations, we’re still in the era when data are few and dominated by selection effect, which is why we began by finding so many ‘hot Jupiters’ — such planets seem made to order for relatively short-term radial velocity detections. It’s a golden age for speculation, with the promise of new instrumentation and a boatload of information from missions like Kepler and CoRoT to be delivered within a few years. What an extraordinary time to be doing exoplanetary science.

The big questions can’t be answered yet, but it shouldn’t be long before we have an inkling about what kind of stars are most likely to produce terrestrial planets. And maybe a qualification is in order. M-dwarfs are so common in our galaxy — some estimates run to seventy percent of all stars and up — that finding habitable worlds around them would hugely increase the possible venues for life. But is there any way we could call planets around M-dwarfs ‘Earth-like?’ Maybe in terms of temperature in a specific habitable zone on the surface, but little else applies. [...]"

Sobre os economistas e a crise (III)

Sobre este ponto têm-se escrito, e discutido, imenso: no The Economist, no Financial Times, etc., nos blogues destes jornais, na blogosfera dos economistas. Não acompanhei tudo, e muito do que guardei (no Delicious) ficou para ler depois, daí que o que vem abaixo (que é muito, mas é para arrumar a casa), nem é tudo, nem asseguro que seja o mais interessante, mas tem interesse suficiente para merecer uma leitura.

O artigo Experts & the demand for certainty, by Chris Dillow, não se enquadra bem sob a epigrafe desta nota, mas fica aqui porque acaba por estar ligada à discussão, ainda que indirectamente - é por ele, e por aquele que o segue, que esta nota é classificada com a etiqueta falácias:

• Book Review - 'The Myth of the Rational Market,' by Justin Fox; and 'The Sages,' by Charles R. Morris - Review - NYTimes.com
  
  

• Paul Krugman's Views differ on the shape of macroeconomics "I’ll mostly weigh in on Brad DeLong’s side with regard to this Economist piece on the state of macroeconomics. The Economist reaches, I think, for a false symmetry, and glosses over too easily the sheer ignorance that has become obvious in the debates over fiscal policy. On the other hand, the common claim that economists ignored the financial side and the risks of crisis seems not quite fair — at least from where I sit. In international macro, one of my two home fields, we’ve worried about and tried to analyze crises a lot. Especially after the Asian crisis of 1997-98, financial crises were very much on everyone’s mind. There was a substantial empirical literature from economists like Carmen Reinhart and Graciela Kaminsky (with Ken Rogoff joining in latterly); there was modeling from Guillermo Calvo, Jose Velasco, Nouriel Roubini, Paolo Pesenti, and others, including yours truly. Speaking for myself, I saw the housing bubble and expected the bust; but I hadn’t appreciated in advance either the vulnerability of the shadow banking system or the leverage of American consumers. Once the crisis was underway, however, I had a more or less ready-made intellectual framework to accommodate these revelations: at a meta level, this was very much the same kind of crisis as Indonesia 1998 or Argentina 2002. Domestic macro people may have been more astonished by what happened. But the prevailing trend now is to assert that there are more risks in the economy than were dreamed of in our philosophy; I don’t think that’s fair".
  
  

• Now what? Free exchange Economist.com
  
  

• Economist's View: "Economists on Trial" This is part of an interview of heterodox economist Michael Perelman: Michael Perelman, on Market Myths, Past and Present, by Seth Sandronsky: ...[Seth] Sandronsky The Depression of the 1930's changed the public policy views of some in the economics profession. In brief, what were the main changes, and how do they connect with the post-bubble economy of mid-2009? Perelman The Great Depression severely tarnished economists' reputations. For example, The Economist published an article on 17 June 1933, entitled "Economists on Trial," which described a "mock-trial - not entirely mockery -" of "the economists." The trial was staged at the London School of Economics, with Robert Boothby, M.P., representing "the state of the popular mind." He accused the economists with "conspiring to spread mental fog," charging that they "were unintelligible; that they had in general proved wrong; and that in any case they all disagreed." The economists - Sir William Beveridge, Sir Arthur Salter, Professor T. E. Gregory, and Hubert Henderson - were all highly respected in the field. They answered Boothby's charges without wholly refuting them. The article concluded, "There was never a time when the advice of an expert was so often asked and so seldom followed as the present." According to the magazine, the problem was that the authorities did not listen to the economists. At the same time, during the New Deal economists played a very prominent role. For the most part, they had not previously been among the doctrinaire defenders of laissez-faire. But keep in mind that, until the post-World War II era, the economics profession was much more diverse. A good number of progressive economists had been purged from academia, but some progressives remained. The more elite a university was, the less diversity it had. Yet, even in elite universities there was a modicum of diversity. Although the discipline of economics became radically more conservative after World War II, during the 1970's economists who were active during the Depression tended to give me a much more sympathetic hearing, even if they had drifted considerably to the right. Today, the makeup of the economics profession has changed dramatically. The economists who experienced the Great Depression are gone. On virtually any campus, the economics department will be among the most conservative. Dissenting views are rarely tolerated, except in liberal arts colleges. Catholic colleges also tend to be less fearful of unorthodox views. However, the government's stimulus plans - under both Bush and Obama - have been so inept that a good number of very conservative economists have been highly critical in ways that do not entirely differ from my own. Perhaps what is most surprising is how little influence economists have had in the policy realm. Virtually no Congressional hearings have called upon economists, whether they are conventional or radical. How much influence economists - other than Larry Summers - have had behind closed doors is an open question. ...
  
  

• Experts & the demand for certainty, by Chris Dillow: It’s a bad day for experts. The Timescomplains that economic forecasters are as blind as ancient soothsayers, whilst proof that Colin Stagg was innocent discredits Paul Britton’s expertise as a forensic pyschologist. To point out that experts are wrong, however, is to misunderstand the purpose of them. Their function is not to provide knowledge, and still less clear thinking. Instead, it is to provide certainty. People hate dissonance, doubt and uncertainty. Experts help dispel these. So, Paul Britton’s function was to tell the police that they had the right man, whilst economic forecasters’ job is to provide an impression that the future is knowable; no-one wants to hear about standard errors, parameter uncertainty or the Lucas critique. What’s so pernicious here, though, is that people have ways of achieving an illusory certainty anyway. As Sir Harry Ognall - the judge who acquitted Stagg -says: “The police closed their minds to any other possibility than that of his guilt.” There are several ways they got these closed minds. All have analogues in corporate planning and financial trading. 1. The confirmation bias. Having acquired the belief that Stagg was guilty - he fitted the profile, was on the scene and a bit of a weirdo - subsequent evidence was interpreted as corroborating this. So, the fact that he looked shifty in interview was seen as evidence of guilt, not as the sign of an innocent man nervous of being fitted up. A similar thing happens in economic forecasting. If you thought last week that we’re heading for a very deep recession, you put great weight on Wednesdays’s jobless numbers and find ways of dismissing yesterday’sretail sales figures. If you thought the recession would be mild, you do the opposite. 2. The halo effect. In their book, Mistakes were Made, Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson describe how policemen believe “I couldn’t have been wrong because I’m a good guy.” Even if we grant the premise, the error here lies in believing that good qualities - moral rectitude and cognitive skills - must be correlated. They are not. Of course, coppers are not unique in thinking this. 3.Groupthink. If our colleagues agree with us, our confidence in our judgment rises, especially if we like them. This error arises in part because we fail to see that correlated data points add little to certainty. If our colleagues have the same training and evidence as us, and are also prone to groupthink, their beliefs will be correlated with ours, and so will not be new evidence - no more than a second copy of the Daily Mail corroborates the stories made in the first. But we interpret them as if they are. 4. Ego-involvement. Admitting that we are wrong means more than just fessing up to narrow technical error. We interpret it as a blow to our ego - a sign that we are not the infallible, uber-competent professionals we think. We’ll do anything to squirm out of facing this. Hence the failure of the police, until yesterday, to apologize to Colin Stagg, and the failure of many bank bosses, Tom McKillop excepted, to apologize for their errors. And herein lies the purpose of experts. It’s to reinforce these mechanisms, to help people avoid the uncomfortable facts that the world is uncertain, that mistakes are inevitable, and that we are not as in control of things as we think. Blaming experts for being wrong is like complaining that the economy is not yellow. It’s a category error so howling as to be nonsensical.
  
  

• EVER wondered why the pundits who failed to predict the current economic crisis are still being paid for their opinions? It's a consequence of the way human psychology works in a free market, according to a study of how people's self-confidence affects the way others respond to their advice. The research, by Don Moore of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, shows that we prefer advice from a confident source, even to the point that we are willing to forgive a poor track record. Moore argues that in competitive situations, this can drive those offering advice to increasingly exaggerate how sure they are. And it spells bad news for scientists who try to be honest about gaps in their knowledge. Humans prefer cockiness to expertise - life - 10 June 2009 - New Scientist
  
  

• The Anti-Macroeconomics Roar Grows Louder - Freakonomics Blog - NYTimes.com In my opinion, the fundamental problem is this: from a modern academic perspective, the sorts of skills that accompany having a good working knowledge of the macroeconomy are not easily measured by, and are not rewarded in, the current incentive schemes for economists. In microeconomics, at least there is an abundance of good data, so people who are good at measuring and describing things can succeed. But in macro there is not much data, so most of the rewards are for the mathematics, not the empirics. The single easiest way to make a mark in a modern macro paper is to solve a problem that is really, really hard mathematically. Even if it is not that relevant to anything, it is seen as a sign that the author has “impressive skills,” which is enough to get a job — and even tenure sometimes — at top universities.
  
  

• http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2234: "Why Economists Failed to Predict the Financial Crisis"
  
  

• Expert Failure - Freakonomics Blog - NYTimes.com
  
  

• Time magazine has kindly included me in its annual list of The 100 Most Influential People in the World. I do not know if I deserve to be in such a list as there are so many others who influence so much of our world. But I certainly recognize that there were a small but significant number of economists, thinkers and analysts who – early on – predicted many of the risks and vulnerabilities that eventually led to this crisis. In many ways I simply connected the dot in these different strands of thinking and warnings. Among a few others Robert Shiller was one of the earliest ones to study in detail and warn about a housing bubble; Kenneth Rogoff and a few other economists warned early on about the unsustainability of the US current account deficits and of the global imbalances; Raghu Rajan presented one of the earliest and sharpest analyses of the agency problems and incentive distortions deriving from compensation schemes in financial institutions; Nassim Taleb and a few other finance scholars stressed the risk of fat tail extreme events in financial markets; Paul Krugman – who received his Nobel for his trade contributions – was the father of currency and financial crisis theories in international macro as at least three generations of currency crisis models were developed from his seminal work; Stephen Roach, David Rosenberg and a few other financial sector analysts warned about the shopped-out, saving-less, bubble-addict and debt-burdened US consumer ; Niall Ferguson provided vivid comparisons between historical episodes of financial crises and current vulnerabilities; Hyun Shin and other scholars in academia provided early modeling of illiquidity and of the perverse effects of leverage during asset bubbles; William White and his colleagues at the BIS were among the first – following the scholarship of Hyman Minsky – to analyze how the “Great Moderation” may paradoxically lead to “Financial Instability”, asset and credit bubbles and financial crises; Gillian Tett and a few other journalists at the Financial Times provided early clear explanations of the arcane complexity of credit derivatives and structured finance and of the systemic risks deriving from these new exotic financial instruments; dozen of serious and deep thinking scholars in academia modeled analytically – and tested empirically - the various aspects of systemic financial crises and the interactions between currency crises, systemic banking crises, systemic corporate and household debt crises and sovereign debt crises. RGE - The thinkers who predicted early on many aspects of this financial crisis
  
  

• The Failure of the Economy & the Economists - The New York Review of Books
  
  

• The World Finance Crisis & the American Mission - The New York Review of Books: "The World Finance Crisis & the American Mission By Robert Skidelsky Fixing Global Finance by Martin Wolf Johns Hopkins University Press"
  
  

• The Unofficial Paul Krugman Web Page
  
  

• The night they reread Minsky - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com Brad DeLong offers a neat little model of speculative fluctuations in asset prices, based on the idea that investors gradually switch strategies based on what seems to work for other people: if people buying stocks seem to be doing well, more people move into stocks, driving up prices and making stocks look even more attractive. It’s very close to Shiller’s notion of bubbles as natural Ponzi schemes. And Brad’s version is very much what I was saying in this piece written in 1999 — one I had a lot of fun writing.
  
  

• Dani Rodrik's weblog: Phew! It turns out that the man who brought down the world economy studied not finance or economics--but political science! Now my colleagues and I can go out in public again...
  
  

• Revisiting Economics 101 Free exchange Economist.com Over the weekend, Greg Mankiw took stock of how the teaching of basic economics will change as a result of the crisis. It is a very exciting time to be teaching and researching in the field, though the introductory courses will probably not change so much. Economics provides a tool kit to think about the world. Basic concepts like supply and demand and how to distribute a fixed amount of resources have not changed. If anything, basic economics will take a harder look at how aspects of the financial system lead to market failure. Perhaps there will be more humility. In the past students have learned economics under the presumption that systematic bank failure, rampant inflation and unsustainable debt were the terrain of developing economies. The developed world, it was thought, understood policy well enough to prevent those things from occurring. American economists probably no longer take that for granted. Many people, even in the field, lost sight of what economics is meant to do, which is provide a framework for thinking about problems rather than forecasting the future. So, Mr Mankiw writes It is fair to say that this crisis caught most economists flat-footed. In the eyes of some people, this forecasting failure is an indictment of the profession. But that is the wrong interpretation. In one way, the current downturn is typical: Most economic slumps take us by surprise. Fluctuations in economic activity are largely unpredictable. Yet this is no reason for embarrassment. Medical experts cannot forecast the emergence of diseases like swine flu and they can’t even be certain what paths the diseases will then take. Some things are just hard to predict. Likewise, students should understand that a good course in economics will not equip them with a crystal ball. Instead, it will allow them to assess the risks and to be ready for surprises. At the very least, classroom discussion will be more dynamic.
  
  

• Sounding the Alarm: Update on the Economic Downturn New York Times columnist Bob Herbert called Mishel’s analysis one that shows “the human toll caused by job losses on this vast scale.” (Read Herbert op-ed.) Mishel says “we must reexamine our policies and enact further public investments as stimulus, provide relief to the many families that are and will be struggling, and use government to directly generate jobs in areas where private sector activity is especially weak.”Click to open slide show viewer Read explanatory text by clicking the Notes icon in the viewerDownload original slide show
  
  

• Two Views on the Cause of the Global Crisis – Part I Income inequality and speculative investment by the rich and poor in America led to the financial meltdown.
  
  

• Global Crisis: How Far to Go? Part I Mistrust over lending grips the globe, but a wiser, more nimble US could emerge from the chaos.
  
  

• Global Crisis: How Far to Go? Part II Falling export demand could rattle Asian countries, but most are resilient enough to survive.
  
  

Revisitar o assunto da eficiência energética com uma velha nota do Climate Progress

A nota referida abaixo, do Climate Progress, é uma antiga (de 2005) e, possivelmente, eu já a tinha inventariado no blogue, mas continua a ter uma actualidade marcante, agora e aqui, pelo que aí vai, seguindo o exemplo do autor:

Ler em "Energy efficienhcy, the low hanging fruit that grows back" - Climate Progress "Energy efficiency is by far the biggest low-carbon resource available. It is also, as we’ll see, every bit as renewable as wind power, solar photovoltaic, and Concentrated solar thermal power Solar Baseload. People who have little experience with what serious energy efficiency investments can do for a company or a state — this means you, neoclassical economists who consistently overestimate the cost of climate mitigation! – think it is a one-shot resource wherein you pick the low hanging fruit. In fact, fruit grow back. The efficiency resource never gets exhausted because technology keeps improving and knowledge spreads to more and more people."

Afinal o par Sol Terra não é o mais favorável ao aparecimento da vida

Pode-se conjecturar soluções mais eficazes. Interessante. Ler em Sun, Earth Are Unlikely Pair to Support Life Universe Today. Sobre este assunto ver as notas com a etiqueta ET.

Algumas sobre o aquecimento global

Sem grandes comentários, algumas das coisas que li ontem e hoje:

Aquecimento global e segurança

• Climate, Security and Politics - Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com 
• NYT: Climate Change Seen as Threat to U.S. Security « Climate Progress

Aquecimento global e os glaciares nos EUA (mais sobre glaciares: fazer uma pesquisa no Google do blogue com a palavra glaciares)

• De-Icer: USGS report details "recent dramatic shrinkage" in US glaciers, matching global decline - Climate Progress "For a half century the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been closely studying changes in glaciers in three different climatic regions in Alaska and Washington state. In a new report, the Interior Department agency details “recent dramatic shrinkage” in the Wolverine and Gulkana glaciers in Alaska and the South Cascade glacier in Washington state’s Cascade Mountains. “Since 1989,” USGS reports, “the cumulative net balances of all three glaciers show trends of rapid and sustained mass loss.” USGS scientist Edward Josberger said the changes observed in the three U.S. glaciers are consistent with other shrinking glacers around the world as they respond to climate change. “There is no doubt that most mountain glaciers are shrinking worldwide in response to a warming climate,” Josberger said. A USGS video of photographs taken over time offers dramatic evidence of the recent rapid shrinkage of the South Cascade Glacier."

Aquecimento global e o comportamento mais recente da calota polar do Árctico

• Vast expanses of Arctic ice melt in summer heat

Mais sobre a segurança alimentar

No seguimento do que se disse na última nota, mais sobre a discussão que está a haver no Reino Unido (e na Austrália) sobre a questão da segurança alimentar. A segunda referência remete para um vídeo duma televisão australiana que não consegui colocar aqui:

• Britain wants "radical rethink" on food production: Scientific American 
• World News Australia - The end of the 'cheap food' era
• A farming revolution is needed - Telegraph

As preocupações dos outros - agora, a segurança alimentar

A segurança alimentar começa a preocupar (muito) alguns (veja-se abaixo). Note-se que temos mais razões para nos preocupar do que os outros - é de novo a questão da especificidade. Penso, se bem me recordo, que na Terceira um responsável do PSD (o seu ao seu dono) terá já levantado a questão quanto aos Açores - portanto, ora bem, que fazer cá? O momento seria para obter informação; para reflectir; para estudar; para criar cenários alternativos; para pensar em planos de contingência, isto é, o momento seria também para nos preocupar também - (daqui não se retire que quero mandar a agropecuária açoriana às urtigas). Uma certeza tenho eu desde há muito: o futuro já não é o que costumava ser, (nomeadamente, nesta área: ver aqui) e isso pode ser extremamente perigoso.

Sponsored Features Sliding Teaser - Wide: "Britain is to commit itself to a massive increase in domestic food production to feed the population in the next 40 years, The Independent on Sunday has learnt. The UK will announce tomorrow that it intends to 'play a full part' in meeting a United Nations target of raising food production by 70 per cent by 2050.

The surge in homegrown crops and meat – which has echoes of the Dig for Victory campaign of the Second World War – is needed to cope with rising global population levels and crop failures and water scarcity caused by climate change.

British officials are increasingly concerned that food supplies will come under strain as a result of rocketing demand from newly prosperous and powerful nations such as China and India. Self-sufficiency has fallen in recent years, and only about 60 per cent of the food British people eat comes from [...]"

Chamada de atenção para um filósofo

İyigün Blog: Economists: Pay Heed to Reinold Niebuhr: o blogue deste economista turco (professor nos EUA) chama a atenção dos economistas para o filósofo (e teólogo) norte-americano, Reinold Niebuhr, (não conhecia), e para a relevância do que disse para a compreensão dos tempos que correm, citando algumas das suas afirmações. Não dá para transcrever tudo, pelo que aí vai uma, mas prometo que parece a pena ler o resto naquele blogue (tendo por destino os EUA, não deixa de implicar todos):

"Any modern community which establishes a tolerable justice is the beneficiary of the ironic triumph of the wisdom of common sense over the foolishness of its wise men. For the wise men are inevitably tempted to follow either one or the other line of "rational" advance... The one form of thought regards all social and historical processes as self-regulating... The alternative type of thought conceives a social or historical goal, presumably desired by all humanity, and seeks to "plan" for its achievement."

Algum material para recordar a temática da ultraperiferia

Material para recordar a temática da ultraperiferia:

A primeira referência (já nomeada na última nota) vale principalmente pela frase que se cita abaixo - o que se passa aqui (nos Açores) e o que se passa lá (no exterior), são realidades diferentes, e quem se esquecer disso, faz má análise económica: a especificidade económica existe mesmo; não é expediente argumentativo a usar na captura de recursos financeiros, em Lisboa e em Bruxelas; a realidade macroeconómica dos Açores é determinada pela sua especificidade, pelo que tem de haver cuidado na aplicação de resultados válidos para outras realidades à realidade regional - isso tem acontecido, e mal, principalmente, na discussão da fiscalidade regional.

A segunda é relativa à Gronelândia (outra realidade insular que pertencendo à União Europeia integraria o conjunto das RUP), fala da Islândia e invoca a discussão da dimensão e a viabilidade dos pequenos estados.

• Iceland: success story Free exchange Economist.com "But mainly I think it's difficult to point to anything pertaining to Iceland as a generalisable lesson on economic policy. The country has 300,000 people! Fishing is responsible for 40% of its export earnings! You have to certify a site as elf free before building on it! It's kind of a special case."

• Could Greenland be the new Iceland? vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists.  

PS (2009.08.10): Apercebi-me que já tinha comentado a primeira referência noutra nota (aqui). Enfim ...

Os Açores e o processo negocial da adesão da Islândia à União Europeia

A notícia, e as suas possíveis implicações para os Açores, já tinham sido referidas neste blogue (vejam aqui). O assunto é revisitado neste artigo: The Economist's "Iceland and the Europe Union - All things to Althingi", onde se diz a dado passo: "Yet three obstacles loom ahead. First is the EU’s notorious common fisheries policy, which would give other EU members access to Iceland’s fish. There are get-outs for traditional fishing grounds, but they may be hard to invoke. Students of past “cod wars” with Britain will be aware of Icelanders’ determination to protect national assets, but given that it is the Icelanders who are demandeurs they may have to compromise."

Para os Açores, este pedido de adesão, e o seu processo negocial, têm uma importância estratégica significativa, e poderão, hipoteticamente, justificar abrir um episódio de afirmação autónomica face à República, agora, de tipo substantivo e fundamentado - a contrário de outros episódios.

A Islândia é por definição (da definição do Comité de Acompanhamento RUP) um território ultraperiférico, e entrando para a União Europeia, seria o primeiro EM onde a condição ultraperiférica se confunde com a sua realidade objectiva - Malta e Chipre não cumprem com todos os requisitos. Não acredito, no entanto, que em qualquer momento os negociadores islandeses reivindicassem essa qualidade - a ultraperiferia não é bem vista na União (como cá) e é encarada (lá, como cá), tão-somente, como expediente (criado nos tratados, por perfídia francesa (*)) que potencia as reinvindicações de um tratamento diferenciado e/ou majorado de um conjunto de territórios portugueses, espanhóis e franceses.  Contudo, no caso da adesão se concretisasse, haveriam sempre possibilidades que poderiam frutificar, logo que trabalhadas com peso, conta e medida. Mas, o que é mesmo importante para os Açores, nesta questão, é o que se relaciona com as pescas.

A Islândia tem nas pescas o seu sector económico mais importante - as pescas respondem por cerca de 40% das suas exportações, com o alumínio a responder por outro tanto (**) (***). A importância económica das pescas resulta, num primeiro momento, do volume, e qualidade, das pescarias islandesas;  num segundo momento, de um gestão rigorosa dessas pescarias e da capacidade de dominar toda a cadeia de criação de valor do pescado. Quanto ao primeiro aspecto, em relação ao exterior, de modo a excluir os outros da exploração desses recursos, optaram pela independência - sim, nalguns casos, até se justifica [nunca foi o caso dos Açores] - e entraram, num quase-conflicto, com a Inglaterra. Quanto ao segundo aspecto, em relação ao interior, de modo a usarem de modo sustentado esses recursos, revolucionaram a sua exploração. [a política de pescas de um qualquer território tem de acautelar essas duas vertentes: o combate à exploração depredatória dos outros; o combate à exploração depredatória dos nossos, mesmo que esta seja menos intensa que a dos outros].

É por tudo isso que a adesão da Islândia à União Europeia se antevê como muito difícil: a Islândia é pouco provável que ceda a mão nesta matéria [seria suicídio, a meu ver]; a Política Comum das Pescas (PCP) (leiam-se: os interesses da pesca longínqua; a Espanha, e, também Portugal, e não sei quem mais) dificilmente. Soluções de compromisso ? por exemplo, acesso limitado? Não creio que a opinião pública islandesa, tradicionalmente céptica sobre a Europa ( e, agora, que o pior da crise estará a atenuar-se: ver (***)) fosse comprada com algo parecido. Até onde posso ver, só teremos a Islândia na União Europeia, se ela for isenta da aplicação da PCP, se for instituído um regime de excepção para a ZEE islandesa. Será possível que tal suceda? Não sei: será difícil, mas não é impossível, já que poderá estar aqui, em causa, de modo indirecto, a adesão da Noruega,  e aí, os interesses europeus em jogo são muito mais importantes.

Para os Açores o interesse de uma solução de excepção para a Islândia, no caso do acesso às pescarias da sua ZEE, seria óbvio: se há para a Islândia, por que não haveria para os Açores?

O interesse da RAA é que a Islândia entre na União Europeia, e que entre salvaguardando os seus interesses quanto ao acesso de outros às suas pescarias. Qual é o interesse da República? Tudo visto, deveria ser o mesmo - a PCP não ajuda a actividade  pesqueira (correcta) de ninguém [por que essa política se perfila assim, era algo que, um dia destes, discutirei aqui]. Mas eu não acredito: os interesses da pesca do mar alto - aqueles que criticam a PCP por lhes proibir de pescar mais - irão salivar com a possibilidade de terem acesso à ZEE islandesa, e o Governo da República (quem quer que seja que esteja no poder) irá acomodar esses interesses, e transformá-los no interesse nacional a defender nas negociações da adesão da Islândia.

Como irá actuar a Região neste caso? On verra bien! Eu vou esperar sentado, mas seria um caso evidente de efectiva, substantiva, afirmação autonómica (ver aqui), e considero que, em momento oportuno, tudo visto, e efectuado alguns contactos, a Região deveria pronunciar-se, publicamente, sobre o assunto. 

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(*) Isso, foi-me afirmado, com todas as letras, por um funcionário de outro EM, a quem, de modo inocente, perguntara o que achava sobre as RUP. A pessoa em causa não se apercebera que eu era dos Açores, ou que os Açores eram uma RUP. Tive pena dela, depois, quando se apercebeu da inadvertência: era um funcionário do MNE local.

(**) Iceland: success story Free exchange Economist.com

(***) naked capitalism: Iceland Proves That in a Financial Crisis, Breaking Glass and Trashing Currency is a Good Remedy