History of the Mafia by Salvatore Lupo | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opinion: "[...] In reality, such internal conflict - such as the contrast between the old Mafia and the new Mafia - is an integral part of the Mafia’s ideology. It is an expression of a mediocre and obscurantic vision of the world.”"
11 de novembro de 2009
Enfim, vamos tomando nota - aqui, trata-se mesmo da "tragédia dos comuns"
"The international commission that sets fishing limits for tuna and other large migratory fish is meeting in Brazil. The commission faces a depressing reality: the bluefin tuna in the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean is headed toward commercial extinction.
From time to time, the commission has marginally reduced the allowable catch, but never by as much as its scientists have recommended, and never by enough to reverse the fish’s plunge toward extinction. The only quota that will make a difference is zero. The tuna fishery in the Mediterranean, where most of the fish spawn, should be shut down, pure and simple, until scientists say the fish have reached sustainable levels."
Editorial - Last Act for the Bluefin - NYTimes.com:
Poder de mercado: lá, mas também cá, embora de modo mais suave, e doutras formas
"[...] I'd often complain that government regulators weren't doing enough to intervene in cases where firms had substantial market power. But this was mainly an economic worry about how market power leads to the inefficient utilization of resources. Over time, however, I've started to worry more and more about the harm that comes when large firms have the ability to exert undue influence on the political process (see health care, financial, or greenhouse gas emission reform just for starters). So I agree with this call to limit rent-seeking activities:
Powerful interests are trying to control the market, by John Kay, Commentary, Financial times: ...Control of rent-seeking requires decentralisation of economic power. These policies involve limits on the economic role of the state; constraints on the concentration of economic power in large business; constant vigilance at the boundaries between government and industry; and a mixture of external supervision and internal norms to limit the capacity of greedy individuals in large organisations to grab corporate rents for themselves. Vigorous pursuit of these is the difference between a competitive market economy and a laisser-faire regime, and it is a large difference. ...[...]
Because innovation is dependent on new entry it is essential to resist concentration of economic power. A stance which is pro-business must be distinguished from a stance which is pro-market. In the two decades since the fall of the Berlin Wall, that distinction has not been appreciated well enough...The essence of a free market economy is not that the government does not control it. It is that nobody does.
Free markets - where free simply means minimal government involvement - are not necessarily the same as competitive markets. There is nothing that says what many interpret as freeing markets - lifting all government restrictions - will give us competitive markets, not at all. Government regulation (as well as laws, social norms, etc.) is often necessary to help markets approach competitive ideals. Environmental restrictions that force producers to internalize all costs of production make markets work better, not worse. Rules that require full disclosure, or that impose accounting standards help to prevent asymmetric information improve market outcomes. Breaking up firms that are too large prevents exploitation of monopoly power (or prevents them from becoming "too large to fail") which can distort resource flows and distort the distribution of income. Making sure that labor negotiations between workers and firms are on an equal footing doesn't move markets away from an optimal outcome, just the opposite, it helps to move us toward the efficient, competitive ideal, and it helps to ensure that labor is rewarded according to its productivity (unlike in recent years where real wages have lagged behind). There is example after example where government involvement of some sort helps to ensure markets work better by making sure they are as competitive as possible."
Economist's View: "Powerful Interests are Trying to Control the Market"
Há quem diga que não tem problema
"Mesmo que não fume, esteja atenta aos efeitos maléficos do fumo passivo – os quais são consideráveis:
* O fumo passivo, também conhecido como fumo de tabaco ambiental, é uma complexa mistura de gases e partículas que incluem o fumo dos cigarros queimados e do ar exalado.
* Este fumo contém cerca de 250 químicos tóxicos, incluindo mais de 50 capazes de causar cancro.
* Doença cardíaca e cancro do pulmão em adultos não fumadores.
* Não fumadores expostos ao fumo têm um aumento do risco de doença cardíaca de cerca de 30% e de cancro em cerca de 25%.
* As pessoas que já tiveram um ataque cardíaco são particularmente vulneráveis ao fumo passivo.
* Causa problemas respiratórios nas crianças, e atrasa a sua maturação pulmonar.
* Aumenta a taxa de morte súbita infantil e de asma.
* Mesmo uma exposição breve pode ser perigosa."
TEM CONSCIÊNCIA DOS EFEITOS MALÉFICOS DO FUMO PASSIVO? - Consultório Anti-Envelhecimento (recomenda-se o blogue).
E continua: vídeos pedagógicos
Este vídeo foi retirado da barra de vídeos deste blogue (no fundo) que dá conta daquilo que aparece na Current TV sobre o assunto do aquecimento global.Recomenda-se a sua visualização.
"Nuts": os amigos da direita portuguesa nos EUA
Estes são os tipos nos EUA que estão contra o combate ao aquecimento global, etc., etc.,...
Ex-KGB predictor of doom finds friends in U.S. Tea Party Movement | FP Passport
________________________
PS: A este propósito ler Op-Ed Columnist - Paranoia Strikes Deep - NYTimes.com.
Absolutamente magnífico!
"What a way to start the day! This image is one of the first things I saw online this morning. In the image, taken by the Cassini spacecraft is Saturn, its rings and the moon Rhea.
Amazingly, this is a raw image straight from Cassini; it has not been calibrated or enhanced in any way. This is art in its purest form and evidence of the phenomenal and enchanting beauty of the Saturn system, as well as confirmation of what an amazing spacecraft Cassini is.
This was was taken on November 08, 2009 and received on Earth November 09, 2009. The camera was pointing toward Rhea at approximately 1,874,061 kilometers away."
Stunning Cassini Image to Knock Your Socks Off | Universe Today
E continua: para que tomem atenção...
"Our guest blogger is supermodel Cameron Russell, a junior at Columbia University and the organizer of the “Supermodels Take It Off For Climate Change” video for the 350.org movement. This is a Wonk Room repost.
Right now, preventing catastrophic climate change is just about the most important thing any one of us should be working on right now. 350.org organized a worldwide day of action which took place on October 24. The goal of their effort was to educate and generate attention around the setting of a 350 parts per million CO2 target goal for the meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December. I know something about getting attention and decided to contribute to their effort."
Supermodel: Why I Took It Off For Climate Change « Climate Progress:
10 de novembro de 2009
Astronomy Picure of the Day - 9 de Novembro de 2009: Galáxias em colisão
Explanation:
Where do stars form when galaxies collide? To help find out, astronomers imaged the nearby galaxy merger NGC 2623 in high resolution with the Hubble Space Telescope in 2007. Analysis of this Hubble image and images of NGC 2623 in infrared light by the Spitzer Space Telescope, in X-ray light by XMM-Newton, and in ultraviolet light by GALEX, indicate that two originally spiral galaxies appear now to be greatly convolved and that their cores have unified into one active galactic nucleus (AGN). Star formation continues around this core near the above image center, along the stretched out tidal tails visible on either side, and perhaps surprisingly, in an off-nuclear region on the upper left where clusters of bright blue stars appear. Galaxy collisions can take hundreds of millions of years and take several gravitationally destructive passes. NGC 2623, also known as Arp 243, spans about 50,000 light years and lies about 250 million light years away toward the constellation of the Crab (Cancer). Reconstructing the original galaxies and how galaxy mergers happen is often challenging, sometimes impossible, but generally important to understanding how our universe evolved.
Astronomy Picture of the Day (Archive, 2009 November 9)
Resulta daqui, também, a importância do combate à corrupção
"Conditional Altruists"
Assurance game, by Daniel Little: How does a group of people succeed in coming together to contribute to a collective project over an extended period of time? [...]Purely self-interested egoists won't make it -- that is the message of Mancur Olson's Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods
.
.
[...]
As Amartya Sen observes in "Rational Fools" (link), "The purely economic man is indeed close to being a social moron." [...] But we know that this conclusion does a bad job of describing real social life. People in villages, communities, political parties, religious organizations, public television audiences, and ethnic groups do in fact often succeed in getting themselves organized and mobilized in pursuit of a public good for the group.
As Amartya Sen observes in "Rational Fools" (link), "The purely economic man is indeed close to being a social moron." [...] But we know that this conclusion does a bad job of describing real social life. People in villages, communities, political parties, religious organizations, public television audiences, and ethnic groups do in fact often succeed in getting themselves organized and mobilized in pursuit of a public good for the group.
[...]
Many theories can be articulated in order to account for the spontaneous occurrence of collective action.
[...]
Many real social actors seem to be what might be called "conditional altruists": they are willing to contribute some effort or personal resource to a collective project if they have grounds for confidence that a reasonable number of other members of the group will contribute as well. (Jon Elster explores the idea in The Cement of Society: A Survey of Social Order.)
[...]
Conditional altruism thus attributes a common moral psychology to social actors, which we might refer to as the "fairness factor." Individuals are willing to factor collective goods into their calculation of the costs and benefits of action, and they have some degree of motivation to act in accordance with a proposed collective action that would benefit them even if they could evade participation. They are disposed to act fairly: "If I benefit from the action, I should take my fair share of creating the benefit." (Allan Gibbard's Wise Choices, Apt Feelings: A Theory of Normative Judgment
offers an effort to bring together the evolutionary history of the species with a philosopher's analysis of moral reasoning.)
offers an effort to bring together the evolutionary history of the species with a philosopher's analysis of moral reasoning.)
[...]
If fairness or conditional altruism are real components of human agency (for all or many human beings), then we can identify a few factors that are likely to increase the likelihood of cooperation and collective action. Measures that increase the actor's assurance of the behavior of others will have the effect of eliciting higher levels of collective action. And it is possible to think of quite a few social circumstances that have this effect. A shared history of success in collective action is clearly relevant to current actors' level of assurance about future cooperation.
If fairness or conditional altruism are real components of human agency (for all or many human beings), then we can identify a few factors that are likely to increase the likelihood of cooperation and collective action. Measures that increase the actor's assurance of the behavior of others will have the effect of eliciting higher levels of collective action. And it is possible to think of quite a few social circumstances that have this effect. A shared history of success in collective action is clearly relevant to current actors' level of assurance about future cooperation.
[...]
).
[...]
(Robert Netting, Smallholders, Householders: Farm Families and the Ecology of Intensive, Sustainable Agriculture
).
).
[...]
).
[...]
So no single answer to the question of collective action seems to work: "people are rational egoists," "people are altruists," or "people are conditional altruists." Rather, a given opportunity for collective action seems to display a mix of all these styles of reasoning. These variations could be the result of several independent factors: differences in the formation of individuals' moral psychology (emphasizing individualism or community from infancy); differences in current institutional settings (arrangements that make future interactions seem more likely to each participant); even potentially differences in personality or the genetic basis of decision-making across individuals.
[...]
Ordinary social experience informs us that people have different levels of willingness to undertake sacrifice for a group's projects.
[...]
Here is an interesting paper by Ernst Fehr and Klaus Schmidt titled "The Economics of Fairness, Reciprocity and Altruism – Experimental Evidence and New Theories."
Via Economist's View: "Conditional Altruists"
Ouro
"Gold is unlike any other commodity. It is costly to extract from the earth and to refine to a reasonable degree of purity. It is costly to store. It has no remaining uses as a producer good - equivalent or superior alternatives exist for all its industrial uses. It may have some value as a consumer good - somewhat surprisingly people like to attach it to their earlobes or nostrils and to hang it around their necks. I have always considered it a rather vulgar metal, made for the Saturday Night Fever crowd, all shiny and in-your-face, as opposed to the much classier silver, but de gustibus… .
The total stock of ‘above-ground’ gold is about 160,000 metric tonnes (a metric ton is 2,204 lbs. or 35,264 oz, for those of a non-decimal mind-set). About 50 percent of this existing stock of above-ground gold is kept as a pure a store of value (for investment purposes), most likely somewhere below-ground, for security reasons. The other 50 percent exists as jewellery.[...]
In a world with multiple fiat moneys, the zero value of money equilibrium lurks for each of the fiat currencies, including gold. Admittedly, as regards gold, so far so good. Gold has positive value. It has had positive value for nigh-on 6000 years. That must make it the longest-lasting bubble in human history.
I don’t want to argue with a 6000-year old bubble. It may well be good for another 6000 years. Its value may go from $1,100 per fine ounce to $1,500 or $5,000 for all I know. But I would not invest more than a sliver of my wealth into something without intrinsic value, something whose positive value is based on nothing more than a set of self-confirming beliefs."
FT.com | Willem Buiter's Maverecon | Gold - a six thousand year-old bubble
Competentes, Incompetentes, e a sua percepção sobre os outros
"[...] Perhaps the single academic study most germane to the present election is the 1999 psychology paper by David Dunning and Justin Kruger, "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments."
[...]
The article's conclusion should be posted as a caveat under every political speech of those seeking office. And it should serve as the epitaph for the Bush administration: "People who lack the knowledge or wisdom to perform well are often unaware of this fact. That is, the same incompetence that leads them to make wrong choices also deprives them of the savvy necessary to recognize competence, be it their own or anyone else's."
The converse also bears repeating. Despite the fact that students in the top quartile fairly accurately estimated how well they did, they also tended to overestimate the performance of others. In short, smart people tend to believe that everyone else "gets it." Incompetent people display both an increasing tendency to overestimate their cognitive abilities and a belief that they are smarter than the majority of those demonstrably sharper.
[...]
In other words, we are as bad at judging ourselves as we are at judging others. Most cognitive scientists now believe that the majority of our thoughts originate in the areas of the brain inaccessible to conscious introspection. These beginnings of thoughts arrive in consciousness already colored with inherent bias. No two people see the world alike. Each of our perceptions is filtered through our genetic predispositions, inherent biologic differences and idiosyncratic life experiences. Your red is not my red. These differences extend to the very building blocks of thoughts; each of us will look at any given question from his own predispositions. Thinking may be as idiosyncratic as fingerprints.
[...]
So I want a president aware of how his mind works, as well as what he suspects are his inborn biases and intellectual limitations. Ironically, the acknowledgment of intellectual limitations may be the best evidence for superior decision-making skills. Contrary to George Bush's belief, we do not want certainty in the White House. We want flexibility and an acknowledgment that certainty is often a sign of ignorance. [...]"
É um artigo antigo, mas que vale a pena: 2008 Elections - Salon.com
Pedaços de leitura - sobre dogmatismo (Popper)
"It is clear that this
dogmatic attitude, which makes us stick to our first impressions, is
indicative of a strong belief; while a critical attitude, which is ready to modify its tenets,
which admits doubt and demands tests, is indicative of a weaker belief.
Now according to Hume's
theory, and to the popular theory, the strength of a belief should be a product of repetition;
thus it should always grow with experience, and always be greater in less primitive persons. But
dogmatic thinking, an uncontrolled wish to impose regularities, a manifest pleasure in rites and
in repetition as such, arc characteristic of primitives and children; and increasing experience
and maturity sometimes create an attitude of caution and criticism rather than of dogmatism."
"Our propensity to look out for regularities, and to impose laws upon nature, leads to the psychological phenomenon of dogmatic thinking or, more generally, dogmatic behaviour: we expect regularities everywhere and attempt to find them even where there are none; events which do not yield to these attempts we are inclined to treat as a kind of 'background noise'; and we stick to our expectations even when they are inadequate and we ought to accept defeat.
This dogmatism is to some extent necessary. It is demanded by a situation which can only be dealt with by forcing our conjectures upon the world. Moreover, this dogmatism allows us to approach a good theory in stages, by way of approximations: if we accept defeat too easily, we may prevent ourselves from finding that we were very nearly right.
"Our propensity to look out for regularities, and to impose laws upon nature, leads to the psychological phenomenon of dogmatic thinking or, more generally, dogmatic behaviour: we expect regularities everywhere and attempt to find them even where there are none; events which do not yield to these attempts we are inclined to treat as a kind of 'background noise'; and we stick to our expectations even when they are inadequate and we ought to accept defeat.
This dogmatism is to some extent necessary. It is demanded by a situation which can only be dealt with by forcing our conjectures upon the world. Moreover, this dogmatism allows us to approach a good theory in stages, by way of approximations: if we accept defeat too easily, we may prevent ourselves from finding that we were very nearly right.
Conjectures and refutations - Popper
Leituras a propósito da queda do muro
Diversos (de história e economia):
- Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin wall | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists: "Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin wall, Germany’s political unification has succeeded. This column argues that its economic unification has not – East German growth has been very disappointing and pulled down the economy as a whole. It blames policies that raised East German wages above market levels."
- Half-empty or half-full? East Germany two decades later | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists: "East Germany has done better than other ex-communist states, but it has not caught up to West Germany. There were two key mistakes – using politically expedient but highly distortionary payroll taxes to fund social buy-outs and trying to resist agglomeration effects by spreading money thinly across every town and village. This column argues that closing the gap will be tough, since convergence will come only when East Germany has the same level of social, institutional, business, and marketing infrastructure."
- What was communism? | open Democracy News Analysis: "Judging from the politics and intellectual debates of today, neither those who celebrate the end of communism, nor those who are now articulating a radical alternative, have carried out such an assessment: between (on one side) the still resilient complacency of market capitalism and an increasingly uncertain world of liberal democracy, and (on the other) the vacuous radicalisms that pose as a global alternative, the lessons of the communist past remain largely ignored. And so, as they say, they will be repeated."
8 de novembro de 2009
Idade, renovação e política
ABRUPTO: "O argumento “geracional” politicamente vale zero. Há gente péssima com vinte anos e gente excelente com setenta e vice-versa." Obviamente, estou de acordo com Pacheco Pereira - devem ler toda a nota.
E continua...
An overview of Antarctic ice trends:
"A common error when discussing Antarctic ice trends is to confuse land ice and sea ice. Simply put, land ice is decreasing while sea ice is increasing. [...] To summarise the situation with Antarctic ice trends:
* Antarctic land ice is decreasing at an accelerating rate
* Antarctic sea ice is increasing despite the warming Southern Ocean"
E continua...
Past climate of the northern Antarctic Peninsular informs global warming debate Climate Ark: "The seriousness of current global warming is underlined by a reconstruction of climate at Maxwell Bay in the South Shetland Islands of the Antarctic Peninsula over approximately the last 14,000 years, which appears to show that the current warming and widespread loss of glacial ice are unprecedented."
E continua...
"Scepticism, honest doubt about the truth of a particular fact or theory, can be a healthy thing. But the term becomes debased when used as a euphemism for self-interested denial, or wilful ignorance, of evidence that is strong enough to convince an overwhelming global majority of the scientists who are qualified to make a judgment. Just this sort of false scepticism, born of short-term greed and fear, now threatens the United Nations climate change summit in Copenhagen next month."
Não faria muitas qualificações ...
Tempos difíceis… | Daniel Proença de Carvalho| Económico:
"O debate do programa do Governo mostrou quanto os partidos estão distantes das verdadeiras questões que afectam o país."
Opinião equilibrada - deve ser lida em conjugação com aquilo que Nicolau Santos diz da situação económica-financeira do País, no último Expresso.
Milhas
A Assembleia da República decidiu vedar os deputados de auferir das milhas que lhe são atribuídas pelas suas viagens de avião, pagas por ela. O objectivo é moralizar. Muito bem.
Do que poderia dizer, quero só dizer o seguinte: Questionar se não seria melhor que essas milhas revertessem a favor da própria Assembleia, que poderia assim diminuir custos (é a tal questão da eficiência). O que se sugere poderia funcionar como um "pequeno empurrão" no sentido pretendido [ "pequeno empurrão": "Nudge" - pesquisar no motor de busca deste blogue o que já disse a esse respeito] .
Declaração de interesse e de intenção: Tenho ainda milhares de pontos no meu cartão da SATA em resultado de viagens para Lisboa em serviço. Obviamente, não foram utilizados, nem o serão, mas gostaria de os alijar. A minha agência de viagens diz que a Sata não aceita a desistência, a anulação dos pontos (???) - estou disponível para os passar para quem de direito.
PS e o combate à corrupção
Naturalmente que estou de acordo com aquilo que Vital Moreira diz sobre os ossos do ofício do desempenho de cargos públicos: ler em Causa Nossa: "Ossos do ofício".
O Governo de José Sócrates tem de dar, muito rapidamente, um sinal claro, inequívoco, e convincente, da prioridade que dá ao combate à corrupção - para começar, poderia ser a definição de um protocolo de actuação claro, inequívoco, e convincente, que os seus indigitados para cargos públicos na Administração, e nas empresas públicas, deveriam cumprir: é necessário, seria rápido, e a rapidez está a importar neste momento, por aquilo que se diz abaixo.
As razões para um combate claro, inequívoco, e convincente à corrupção são todas conhecidas - e uma, não-trivial, deve ser relembrada: a corrupção contribui para a ineficiência, e para resultados menos bons no domínio da produtividade e da competitividade. Ora, precisamos, o País precisa, como de pão para a boca, de eficiência, produtividade e competitividade: o que Nicolau Santos diagnostica no Expresso, " O que vem aí é dantesco", não peca por exagero.
E se necessitamos de travar a quatro rodas (é expressão de Nicolau Santos) - se não concordam, agradecia que me informassem como poderia ser feito de outra forma - irão ser pedidos sacrifícios (e que sacrifícios) a toda a gente, e o pior que pode acontecer nessa conjuntura do ponto de vista político-social e de justiça será a simultaneadade das histórias de corrupção, a "aparente" passividade no combate à corrupção, e a imposição daqueles sacríficios.
7 de novembro de 2009
Recomendações de visita
"thepaleodiet.blogspot.com
E a NUTRISCIENCE está com um canal novinho no Youtube:
www.youtube.com/NutriScience "
Tirado de Canibais e Reis » Blog Archive » Paleo-novidades: novo blogue do grupo da paleodieta e novo canal no Youtube da Nutriscience.
Recomenda-se a visita ao Blogue de Canibais e Reis, aos vídeos da NutriScience, e já agora, vejam o que se diz no blogue the paleodiet.
Mais a ter em atenção
"[...] on the fact that advanced economies actually grew faster in the era before modern finance took hold. There have been assertions that it was all about rebuilding from the war, or that the picture looks very different if you look at per capita real GDP, with some flat assertions that if you look at the numbers right growth has been better since 1980s."
Krugman demonstra que o que é afirmado (a bold) está em conformidade com a evidência."
Reagan! Reagan! Reagan! - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com (esta nota foi antecedida por esta: The lost generation - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com).
______________________________
PS (8 de Novembro de 2009): Também a considerar: La finance est-elle utile à la croissance ? | Telos
PS (11 de Novembro de 2009): E este: Finance mythbusting, third world edition - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
Pois é
A vontade, ou a visão política, entenda-se.
"Ultimately, the institutions are only means. Where there's a political will, there'll be an institutional way. Where there isn't the political will, the best institutional arrangements in the world won't do the trick."
Timothy Garton Ash: Europe is failing two life and death tests. We must act together, now | Comment is free | The Guardian:
O que é um bom pragmático?
This is a definition of pragmatism that is in almost every way the opposite of its invocation among those in the establishment. For them, pragmatism means accepting the institutional forces that severely limit innovation and boldness; it means listening to the counsel of the Wise Men; it means not rocking the boat. ...
When it comes to the climate crisis, the financial crisis, or the healthcare crisis, the facts demand bold action, and that means a bias toward “variability, initiative, innovation, departure from routine, experimentation,” in pragmatist John Dewey’s words."
"'Progressivism is pragmatism: Obama says “the facts demand bold action.' (Climate Progress)"
Problemas de todos
" [...] Subir as taxas de juro a curto prazo num futuro próximo para níveis igualmente baixos, mas mais perto dos 2%, pode ajudar a evitar uma nova bolha de crédito e a conter a bolha no mercado de obrigações. Se os bancos centrais levarem muito tempo a reagir, como aconteceu em relação à primeira desaceleração económica, a bolha poderá crescer e obrigar o banco central a adoptar uma nova política monetária com vista a rebentá-la.
A segunda razão prende-se com o aumento da dívida soberana. Compreendo a relutância dos governos em suspender as políticas orçamentais, uma vez que os riscos implícitos são elevados. O novo governo alemão de centro-direita reforçou o pacote de estímulo para 2010 e anunciou que tenciona reduzir os impostos sobre o rendimento em 2011; a França caminha para um défice excessivo permanente; e o pacto de estabilidade e crescimento foi suspenso. Os EUA, inclusive, ponderam novo estímulo. Ora, isto não pode continuar indefinidamente.
Como é óbvio, nem todos os bancos centrais terão de implementar as mesmas políticas ao mesmo tempo. Seria preferível para a economia global que a Reserva Federal americana (Fed) liderasse a saída da crise para evitar uma nova depreciação do dólar. Se a Fed repetisse os erros que cometeu em 2003 e 2004, os restantes bancos centrais teriam sérias dificuldades em adoptar uma política diferente. Se o BCE assumir esse papel, o euro poderá valorizar para níveis intoleráveis. Em suma, se a política de taxas de juro próximas de zero se prolongar demasiado no tempo, a instabilidade económica será porventura mais extremada e onerosa do que a recente crise financeira."
A “saída” da crise | Económico Wolfgang Munchau
Risco e incerteza
The crisis and how to fix it: Part 1, causes | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists"To paraphrase a recent secretary of defence, risk refers to situations where the unknowns are known, while uncertainty refers to situations where the unknowns are unknown."
Dos benefícios de comer como os nossos antepassados comiam, antes do neolítico
"A conferência com o Dr. Staffan Lindeberg, a que assistimos no passado Sábado (31/Out) [já referida aqui], foi, a meu ver, mais um extraordinário momento de aprendizagem para quem se interessa por povos primitivos, saúde, nutrição e estilo de vida dos mesmos.
O Dr. Staffan explica nos seus artigos que os Kitava constituem uma das últimas oportunidades para estudar humanos de uma sociedade não-industrializada, ou seja, sem a influência dos hábitos nutricionais e sedentários da civilização ocidental.
Não tenho hoje já grandes dúvidas de que, só através do estudo destes povos, aos mais diversos níveis - da saúde, nutricional, antropológico, biológico, genético, epidemiológico, etc. - é que conseguiremos perceber o está a correr mal na passagem para a civilização e que tem gerado tantas novas doenças, cuja génese, sempre altamente multifactorial, simplesmente ainda está muito para além da nossa compreensão."
6 de novembro de 2009
Como vai ser?
Economist's View: "The Great Contraction of 2008-2009"
The Great Contraction of 2008-2009, by Kenneth Rogoff, Commentary, Project Syndicate: A popular view among economic forecasters and market bulls is that “the deeper the recession, the quicker the recovery.” They are right – up to a point: immediately after a normal recession, economies do, indeed, often grow much faster than usual... Unfortunately, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 is far from being a normal global recession. The Great Recession was turbo-charged by a financial crisis,... a far more insidious affair that typically has far more long-lasting effects.[...]
I am often asked why economies get themselves into such a bind again and again throughout economic history. Unfortunately,... the answer is all too simple: arrogance and ignorance. Investors and policymakers are often altogether ignorant of the myriad historical experiences with financial crises. And the few that are dimly aware of what has happened in other times and other places all too often say, “Don’t worry, this time is different.”
O dólar, mais uma bolha especulativa e a conjuntura - ou, de como tudo está ainda muito periclitante
"International capital flows are supposed to be good for two reasons. First, they divert capital to where it can be invested most productively, enhancing efficiency and growth. Second, they help diversify risk. As regards the first benefit, helping rich country consumers borrow and consume is not what we typically think of as a productive investment. As regards the second benefit — well, the less said the better, really.
In a widely noticed article in the FT, Nouriel Roubini has argued that capital flows are now creating major asset bubbles outside the US, as investors exploit the weakening dollar to borrow at negative interest rates and invest the proceeds overseas. If he is right, then central banks are faced with an impossible dilemna. Outside the US, if they raise interest rates to prick incipient bubbles they jeopardize the recovery, and/or attract even more capital inflows. Inside the US, raising interest rates clearly places the recovery at risk.[...]"
O mecanismo que é evidenciado por Nouriel Roubini [para uma sua explicação simples, ver aqui], sendo de simples arbitragem, é importante devido à dimensão que atinge e ao stress que provoca ao sistema; ele é permitido pela livre circulação de capitais, e já teve outras aplicações parecidas nos últimos tempos: no caso da Islândia, por exemplo - taxas de juro mais altas aí, determinadas pelas condições económicas internas, drenaram recursos financeiros (desmuserados) do exterior para um sistema bancário e um país que não tinham nem dimensão nem a expertise para os gerir. A questão de pertencer ou não à Zona Euro, de um país de pequena ou média dimensão como Portugal, articula-se à volta de como lidar com a livre circulação de capitais no caso de não se pertencer.
O PCP fala da queda do muro de Berlim
arquivo: Por detrás das falas mansas, Pedro Adão e Silva. Há que tomar nota por uma questão de memória.
É uma das razões para estar preocupado ...
"[...] O Governo mantém a estratégia que vinha de ataque à crise. Primeiro, o Estado vai tentar sustentar a procura com mais gastos públicos. Segundo, apoio às empresas para tentar evitar falências e destruição de emprego. Terceiro, aumento da rede social para os que são mais afectados pela hecatombe económica. José Sócrates tem o alibi de seguir um caminho semelhante ao dos outros países desenvolvidos.
[...] há uma factura que será paga mais cedo ou mais tarde: o défice orçamental e a dívida pública a subir. Por isso é importante que o Governo explique bem que estas medidas contra a crise são temporárias. E tenha a coragem de as retirar quando a tempestade passar [...]"
Continuar a ler em Sócrates mantém o perigoso plano económico | Económico
Pois ...
Causa Nossa: "Entre os efeitos nocivos da grande recessão que agora está a desanuviar não consta somente a forte retracção da actividade económica e o grande desemprego. Está também a excessiva subida real das remunerações, beneficiando da variação negativa dos preços durante a recessão.
Para uma economia com grandes problemas de competitividade externa, o aumento dos custos do trabalho acima do aumento da produtividade pode ser fatal, quer para as exportações quer para o emprego"
De acordo, mas o mecanismo denunciado está actuando e condicionando o comportamento da economia portuguesa desde a entrada de Portugal no Euro; não é algo que aconteça só agora, no período da crise. Os aumentos de salários e ordenados reivindicados, no entretanto, relevam duma alienação total da realidade.
5 de novembro de 2009
Astronomy Picture of the Day - 4 de Novembro de 2009: Sol azul
Explanation:
"Our Sun may look like all soft and fluffy, but it's not. Our Sun is an extremely large ball of bubbling hot gas, mostly hydrogen gas. The above picture of our Sun was taken last month in a specific red color of light emitted by hydrogen gas called Hydrogen-alpha and then color inverted to appear blue. In this light, details of the Sun's chromosphere are particularly visible, highlighting numerous thin tubes of magnetically-confined hot gas known as spicules rising from the Sun like bristles from a shag carpet. Our Sun glows because it is hot, but it is not on fire. Fire is the rapid acquisition of oxygen, and there is very little oxygen on the Sun. The energy source of our Sun is the nuclear fusion of hydrogen into helium deep within its core. No sunspots or large active regions were visible on the Sun this day, although some solar prominences are visible around the edges."
A conjuntura política-económica portuguesa
"[...] E esta cura vai ter implicações políticas. O novo Governo minoritário enfrentará o descontentamento de uma população a perder nível de vida e com um número crescente de desempregados. Na verdade, José Sócrates não tem muitas armas para resolver o problema. O Estado também sofre da doença do endividamento: défice nos 8%, acima da média europeia, e a dívida pública a subir a um ritmo galopante - 25 pontos percentuais do PIB entre 2008 e 2011. Sócrates usou todas as munições para tentar conter a crise e agora o Estado também está condenado a emagrecer. E a Comissão Europeia vai fazer questão de controlar a dieta.
O mais complicado desta grave situação é que não há uma solução fácil. Só há um caminho: poupar mais para resolver o problema do endividamento e trabalhar melhor para aumentar a produtividade."
Só isso? Veja-se o que se diz que é necessário fazer em outros países europeus, com efectivas diferenças em relação ao nosso - pode-se argumentar, mas também em situação económica difícil (ver o que há sob a etiqueta europa-economia-países)
Da importância do mercado
Recomenda-se a leitura - é um texto pedagógico: FT.com / Columnists / John Kay - Chaotic evolution defines the market economy.
"Abuso de posição dominante"
"2. Em Portugal, o abuso de posição dominante é prática corrente. Como é prática corrente a demissão do Estado no combate a essa prática. Ora, sem intervenção pública é impossível contrariar o abuso, pois esse só é possível pelos diferenciais de poder em confronto e, portanto, pela vulnerabilidade das pequenas e médias empresas à chantagem das grandes, independentemente da lei. Entre o fraco e o forte só a interposição do Estado pode reequilibrar a relação de forças e repor as condições de funcionamento democrático dos mercados."
Ler mais em Canhoto: Abuso de posição dominante
Sem comentário
Jacques Chirac says in memoirs he was a big admirer of Thatcher - Times Online
" [...] Jacques Chirac, the former President, says in his memoirs that he was a big admirer of the “Iron Lady”, and that their friendship in the late-1980s made President Mitterrand envious. According to Mr Chirac, Prime Minister under Mitterrand, the British Prime Minister even confided her fears over the mental abilities of President Reagan, her closest ally."
"[...] In November 1987 Mrs Thatcher told him of fears for Reagan on the eve of a Washington summit at which Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet leader, would agree to limit intermediate nuclear forces. “Ronald Reagan did not appear to her to be intellectually or physically up to a long bout of negotiation,” he writes. [...]"
"[...] In November 1987 Mrs Thatcher told him of fears for Reagan on the eve of a Washington summit at which Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet leader, would agree to limit intermediate nuclear forces. “Ronald Reagan did not appear to her to be intellectually or physically up to a long bout of negotiation,” he writes. [...]"
4 de novembro de 2009
Elementos de interesse para a discussão da globalização
UnderstandingSociety: A modern world-system?: "Immanuel Wallerstein created a huge stir in the 1970s with the publication of The Modern World-System: Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the European World-Economy in the Sixteenth Century (1974). The book is an intellectual masterpiece, synthesizing a vast range of fundamental literature on the economic history of Europe and the world. You could look at the book as the first serious and extended effort to theorize globalization -- a term that barely existed at the time of publication. Or you could look at it as a general theory of colonialism -- an account of the pathways and influences through which the metropole dominated and exploited the periphery. It is worth looking back at this work today to tease out some of the guiding assumptions about history, sociology, and globalization it reflected."
Chama a atenção para a actualidade do tema, e para contributos importantes para a sua discussão.
Ora bem
Economists’ responses to the statement: “The environmental effects of greenhouse-gas emissions, as described by leading scientific experts, create significant risks to important sectors of the United States and global economy.”
Para que conste ....
É nestas ("pequenas") coisas, como a referida abaixo, que se evidencia melhor as deficiências de todo o tipo de "alguma" classe política portuguesa, com uma actuação sobredeterminada pelo tacticismo mais tacanho: (por ausência de valores, e incapacidade, e desconhecimento de como se faz , e se pode fazer de modo diferente: o ataque às sondagens é expediente táctico e muleta de trabalho político medíocre).
"O relatório feito por uma comissão nomeada pela ERC para fazer um 'diagnóstico sobre a situação das sondagens' foi divulgado há duas semanas. [...].
A primeira coisa que queria notar é o silêncio sepulcral com que as conclusões desse relatório foram recebidas, com excepção de meia-dúzia de notícias divulgadas no próprio dia. Esse silêncio era expectável, mas não por isso menos instrutivo. Nos últimos meses, foram muitas as dezenas de comentadores, políticos e bloggers, dos mais inteligentes e informados até aos semi-analfabetos, que acharam que tinham coisas interessantes e importantes para dizer sobre as sondagens, os institutos que as fazem, os seus resultados, os seus métodos e as suas consequências.
Passadas as eleições, e havendo informação produzida por uma fonte independente quer dos partidos quer dos institutos de sondagens, verifica-se que quase ninguém tem nada para dizer sobre o assunto. Só se podem tirar duas conclusões. Ou todas estas pessoas foram atingidas por uma súbita falta de tempo e disponibilidade para pensar no assunto, ou então a esmagadora maioria desses comentários - com raríssimas excepções - não foram feitos por pessoas interessadas nas sondagens, na sua qualidade ou nas suas consequências. Foram feitos com motivações estrita, única e exclusivamente políticas. Não é que não se soubesse, mas é bom dispormos agora da prova categórica."
A primeira coisa que queria notar é o silêncio sepulcral com que as conclusões desse relatório foram recebidas, com excepção de meia-dúzia de notícias divulgadas no próprio dia. Esse silêncio era expectável, mas não por isso menos instrutivo. Nos últimos meses, foram muitas as dezenas de comentadores, políticos e bloggers, dos mais inteligentes e informados até aos semi-analfabetos, que acharam que tinham coisas interessantes e importantes para dizer sobre as sondagens, os institutos que as fazem, os seus resultados, os seus métodos e as suas consequências.
Passadas as eleições, e havendo informação produzida por uma fonte independente quer dos partidos quer dos institutos de sondagens, verifica-se que quase ninguém tem nada para dizer sobre o assunto. Só se podem tirar duas conclusões. Ou todas estas pessoas foram atingidas por uma súbita falta de tempo e disponibilidade para pensar no assunto, ou então a esmagadora maioria desses comentários - com raríssimas excepções - não foram feitos por pessoas interessadas nas sondagens, na sua qualidade ou nas suas consequências. Foram feitos com motivações estrita, única e exclusivamente políticas. Não é que não se soubesse, mas é bom dispormos agora da prova categórica."
Tese interessante, mas falta-lhe alguma coisa
Mas a integração financeira da Europa foi tão somente intensificada pelo Euro; não foi criada pelo Euro - aquela aconteceria em qualquer caso, devido às dinâmicas criadas com o Mercado Único. E assim sendo, à luz do que sucedeu na Europa fora do Euro: Hungria, no Báltico, na Islândia, e atendendo a que, em qualquer dos cenários, a capacidade política de regular a situação de modo adequado (de conduzir a política económica adequada à conjuntura) teria o mesmo nível de proficiência, é de concluir que foi melhor estar dentro do que fora da Zona Euro.
3 de novembro de 2009
E continua ...
Kilimanjaro ice could vanish within 20 years, study suggests | Environment | guardian.co.uk: "Global warming not local weather variations to blame for loss of up to 17 feet of ice, say scientists".
Educação e democracia
Want a Stronger Democracy? Invest in Education - Economix Blog - Edward L. Glaeser - NYTimes.com: Argentina’s poor economic performance during the 20th century reflects, in part, political instability and the mistaken policies of dictatorial regimes. Before 1930, Argentina had seemed a stable republic, but for 53 years from 1930 to 1983, Argentina was whipsawed by frequent military coups and uprisings.
Why was Argentina unable to remain a stable democracy? Education, education, education."
Esta nota vem no seguimento de outras sobre o mesmo assunto (ver aqui).
Irlanda: a experiência dos outros (III)
A experiência irlandesa nesta crise, interessa-nos. Por exemplo, veja-se o que se propõe em The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Mis-Diagnosis:
"Outside the monetary union, other countries are undertaking currency depreciation to achieve real devaluation. The equivalent for Ireland is to reduce domestic wages and prices. Since aggregate inflation is low in the euro area, a reduction in Ireland’s relative wage and price level requires nominal reductions. While this is uncharted territory, real devaluation by this method should parallel the gains obtained by those countries that achieve the same outcome through nominal depreciation outside the currency union".
"Outside the monetary union, other countries are undertaking currency depreciation to achieve real devaluation. The equivalent for Ireland is to reduce domestic wages and prices. Since aggregate inflation is low in the euro area, a reduction in Ireland’s relative wage and price level requires nominal reductions. While this is uncharted territory, real devaluation by this method should parallel the gains obtained by those countries that achieve the same outcome through nominal depreciation outside the currency union".
Noutro sentido, isto que é dito a seguir:
"For such reasons, I consider that those who advocate an ‘off the shelf’ Keynesian prescription [...] do not have a correct diagnosis of Ireland’s current economic and fiscal situation. The standard Keynesian prescription is appropriate if an economy on a sustainable growth path and with sustainable public finances has been temporarily knocked off course by a demand slump. For the reasons given above, this is not the situation in Ireland" vem validar o referido aqui, ao fim.
"For such reasons, I consider that those who advocate an ‘off the shelf’ Keynesian prescription [...] do not have a correct diagnosis of Ireland’s current economic and fiscal situation. The standard Keynesian prescription is appropriate if an economy on a sustainable growth path and with sustainable public finances has been temporarily knocked off course by a demand slump. For the reasons given above, this is not the situation in Ireland" vem validar o referido aqui, ao fim.
Reforma da Administração Pública: o que os outros propõem e discutem
Desigualdade, Mérito, Redistribuição, Dotação genética e cultural ...
Recomenda-se, vivamente, a leitura. Ah, e para apimentar a recomendação, sublinhe-se que é um economista, do "main stream", que fala: Do Smart, Hard-Working People Deserve to Make More Money? « The Baseline Scenario.
De como as disfunções da política interna norte-americana, conformam a situação no Próximo Oriente
Glenn Greenwald - Salon.com: "
An Israeli columnist issues a scathing indictment of Israel and calls on the U.S. to apply pressure."
2 de novembro de 2009
Mais um exemplo de colapso, ou de como os humanos alteram os ecosistemas
Ancient Peruvian Nazca turned land to desert | Environment | The Guardian: "Ancient Peruvian Nazca turned land to desert
Lessons to be learned from Nazca civilisation, which exposed itself to floods after mass deforestation, research says".
Sobre a questão do "colapso" fazer um pesquisa no motor de busca que a Google disponibiliza no cimo do blogue.
Ranking das drogas de acordo com a sua perigosidade: existem surpresas!
David Nutt's dangerous drug list | Science | guardian.co.uk: "David Nutt's dangerous drug list: research carried out by the ousted government drugs adviser and his colleagues on the most dangedrous drugs"
Como educar os novos professores a serem bons professores
"First, future teachers should continue studying the subject they hope to teach, with outstanding professors. It makes no sense at all to stop studying the thing you want to teach at the very moment you begin to learn how.
Meanwhile, students should learn their craft the way a surgeon learns to operate: by intense supervision in a real setting with expert mentors. Student-teachers are usually observed only twice during a semester and then given a written evaluation. But young teachers, like young doctors, should work side by side with skilled mentors, getting plenty of feedback, having plenty of opportunities to observe and taking on greater and greater responsibility as they improve.
Teacher training can also learn from family therapy programs. Therapists spend a great deal of time watching videotapes of themselves in action, reflecting on their sessions and discussing the most difficult moments with senior therapists to explore other ways they might have responded. In much the same way, young teachers need to record their daily encounters with their classrooms and then, with mentors and peers, have serious, open-minded conversations about what’s working and what isn’t.
Teacher training can also learn from family therapy programs. Therapists spend a great deal of time watching videotapes of themselves in action, reflecting on their sessions and discussing the most difficult moments with senior therapists to explore other ways they might have responded. In much the same way, young teachers need to record their daily encounters with their classrooms and then, with mentors and peers, have serious, open-minded conversations about what’s working and what isn’t.
Teachers must also learn far more about children: typically, teaching students are provided with fairly static and superficial overviews of developmental stages, but learn little about how to watch children, using research and theory to understand what they are seeing. As James Comer, a professor of child psychiatry at Yale, has argued for years, if we disregard the developmental needs of our students it’s unlikely we’ll succeed in teaching them.
One more thing is required — give as many public schools as possible the financial incentives to hire these newly prepared teachers in groups of seven or more. This way, talented eager young teachers won’t languish or leave teaching because they felt bored, inept, isolated or marginalized. Instead, they will feel part of a robust community of promising professionals. They will struggle and learn together. Good teachers need good colleagues.
To fix our schools, we need teaching programs that are as rich in resources, interesting, high-reaching and thoughtful as the young people we want to attract to the profession. Show me a school where teachers are smart, well-educated, skilled and happy to be there, and I’ll show you a group of children who are getting a good education."
Continuar a ler em Op-Ed Contributor - Teach Your Teachers Well - NYTimes.com.
Alemanha: a experiência dos outros
Mudança de rumo da política económica alemã interessante. Não pode ser seguida por Portugal, mas favorece-nos:
"Faced with the contradictory problems of rapidly emptying state coffers and an economy still reeling from this year’s recession, Ms Merkel has opted to fight the crisis with an injection of funds on an unprecedented scale. The new “black-yellow” coalition between her Christian Democrats and the FDP plans to cut income and corporate taxes by €24bn ($35bn, £21bn) a year up to 2013 – a boost equivalent to about 1 per cent of gross domestic product. “Just saving, saving, saving will not do us any good,” she said when presenting her plan. “This is why we have decided to follow a path that concentrates on growth” rather than focus on fixing the federal budget.”
Though she has been careful not to call it a third fiscal stimulus, this is in effect what Ms Merkel is proposing for Europe’s largest economy. If this programme – the centrepiece of the coalition agreement – works, it should in theory boost growth, save jobs and create new ones, helping generate the tax and social security contributions needed to bring Germany’s fiscal house back into order. If it fails, Berlin will see its margin for manoeuvre constrained anew."
Ler em FT.com / Comment / Analysis - Merkel’s bold gamble.
"Faced with the contradictory problems of rapidly emptying state coffers and an economy still reeling from this year’s recession, Ms Merkel has opted to fight the crisis with an injection of funds on an unprecedented scale. The new “black-yellow” coalition between her Christian Democrats and the FDP plans to cut income and corporate taxes by €24bn ($35bn, £21bn) a year up to 2013 – a boost equivalent to about 1 per cent of gross domestic product. “Just saving, saving, saving will not do us any good,” she said when presenting her plan. “This is why we have decided to follow a path that concentrates on growth” rather than focus on fixing the federal budget.”
Though she has been careful not to call it a third fiscal stimulus, this is in effect what Ms Merkel is proposing for Europe’s largest economy. If this programme – the centrepiece of the coalition agreement – works, it should in theory boost growth, save jobs and create new ones, helping generate the tax and social security contributions needed to bring Germany’s fiscal house back into order. If it fails, Berlin will see its margin for manoeuvre constrained anew."
Ler em FT.com / Comment / Analysis - Merkel’s bold gamble.
Irlanda: a experiência dos outros (II)
Vem no seguimento de outra nota sobre a Irlanda (aqui):
The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Macroeconomic Adjustment and Fiscal Policy in Ireland
The Irish Economy » Blog Archive » Macroeconomic Adjustment and Fiscal Policy in Ireland
O que os outros vão fazendo, e mais um exemplo de um pequeno empurrão ("nudge")
"This fall, 50,000 Massachusetts power customers are getting their first energy report cards in the mail. Just as in school, they’re being judged against their peers, with the model citizens getting smiley faces and the laggards getting advice for cleaning up their acts.
Until now, these homeowners could only judge their own energy use by their month-to-month bills. The new Home Energy Reports (HERs) compare their energy use to that of neighbors with similar demographics and similar size homes.
Officials hope the peer pressure encourages users to take a few simple steps to stop wasting electricity — and money.[...]"
"[...] In 2007, Cialdini and colleagues conducted an experiment that involved placing one of four door hangers on the doors of participants once a week for a month. The door hangers informed residents that (1) they could save money by conserving energy, or (2) they could save the earth’s resources by conserving energy, or (3) they could be socially responsible citizens by conserving energy, or (4) the majority of their neighbors tried regularly to conserve energy. Although residents reported that they would be least influenced by their neighbors’ energy usage, this was the only type of door hanger information that led to significant efforts to conserve energy.[...]"
"[...] In 2007, Cialdini and colleagues conducted an experiment that involved placing one of four door hangers on the doors of participants once a week for a month. The door hangers informed residents that (1) they could save money by conserving energy, or (2) they could save the earth’s resources by conserving energy, or (3) they could be socially responsible citizens by conserving energy, or (4) the majority of their neighbors tried regularly to conserve energy. Although residents reported that they would be least influenced by their neighbors’ energy usage, this was the only type of door hanger information that led to significant efforts to conserve energy.[...]"
Continuar a ler em Keeping Up With The Joneses to Save Energy | SolveClimate.com. Sobre o "nudge", o pequeno empurrão, ver também aqui e aqui.
Sem comentário
"Segundo Carvalho da Silva, no Público (ainda com José Manuel Fernandes), a presença de Valter Lemos no Emprego é um sinal “absolutamente desastroso” do Governo."
Continuar a ler em Canhoto: Défices de fair play e de factualidade.
E continua ...
A tese não é nova - penso que a vi referida, pela primeira vez, no livro de Hansen sobre o aquecimento global (aqui): as democracias poderão não sobreviver às tensões e às disrupções (de todo o tipo) que trará a intensificação do aquecimento global:
The climate of fear | Peter Preston | Comment is free | The Guardian: "Unless our leaders take radical action, global warming could usher in the far-right strongmen"
Canhoto: Como destruir a democracia
De acordo com Rui Pena Pires na apreciação que faz do que diz Vasco Pulido Valente sobre os partidos:
"A permanente manifestação pública de nojo pelos partidos e a sistemática caracterização destes como máquinas de corrupção ameaçam de morte a democracia, pois afastam os cidadãos da prática institucionalizada da política. E fazem, assim, de VPV um inimigo declarado da democracia."
Continuar a ler em Canhoto: Como destruir a democracia.
PS: Como é óbvio outra coisa totalmente diferente é esperar, e desesperar, que os partidos fizessem muito do que precisam de fazer, e não fazem.
"A permanente manifestação pública de nojo pelos partidos e a sistemática caracterização destes como máquinas de corrupção ameaçam de morte a democracia, pois afastam os cidadãos da prática institucionalizada da política. E fazem, assim, de VPV um inimigo declarado da democracia."
Continuar a ler em Canhoto: Como destruir a democracia.
PS: Como é óbvio outra coisa totalmente diferente é esperar, e desesperar, que os partidos fizessem muito do que precisam de fazer, e não fazem.
Investimento público lá e cá
Vital Moreira faz referência ao que é defendido nos EUA quanto à sua infraestruturação e retira daí evidência a favor dos grandes projectos de obras públicas em Portugal: Causa Nossa:
«O presidente dos EUA, Barack Obama, sublinhou este sábado a importância dos investimentos públicos em infra-estruturas, sublinhando que os mesmos permitiram criar centenas de milhares de empregos e que, graças a eles, a economia está no bom caminho."
Não estou nesta de acordo com o Vital Moreira. E isso por três ordens de razões: 1) O parque infraestrutural dos EUA encontra-se em má condição, o que não sucede com o português (é assim mesmo); 2) Em Portugal, a contrário dos EUA, não se discute a bondade da intervenção do Estado na provisão de infraestruturas, mas tão somente a relacção custo-benefíco de alguns daqueles projectos, e a tempestividade da concretização daqueles com mérito social-económico, devido ao endividamento externo; 3) Ora, os EUA não estão confrontados com as restrições com que Portugal se debate, no que concerne ao financiamento interno e externo desses programas de obras públicas.
1 de novembro de 2009
Da dificuldade de governar em maioria absoluta
Miguel Sousa Tavares ao comentar o clima que vive o país face ao seu governo minoritário, no Expresso desta semana - narrativa que cola, convenhamos, em parte - conclui que: "difícil, afinal, é governar Portugal em maioria absoluta e sentir a obrigação e a responsabilidade de mudar o que dramaticamente precisa há décadas de ser mudado". Espero, sinceramente, que Sócrates prove o contrário. Não, que ser minoritário não conforme a latitude das reformas que podem ser feitas, mas porque há muito que pode ser feito, mesmo nas condições actuais.
Mas, existem razões para preocupação. Já as tinha manifestado aqui. A ver vamos.
Mas, existem razões para preocupação. Já as tinha manifestado aqui. A ver vamos.
"That is functionally insane " ou a irracionalidade do "capitalismo" norte-americano
Al Gore tem novo livro sobre o problema do aquecimento global, mas, agora, incidindo sobre as soluções. O que se transcreve abaixo é de um artigo da Newsweek:
"[...]In the obligatory chapter on wind, he writes that it is cheaper and faster-growing than any other renewable except geothermal, and competitive with fossil fuel in some places and for some uses. (Wind supplies just over 1 percent of U.S. electricity, but the DoE projects that could easily reach 20 percent by 2023.) Gore doesn't try to pick winners, instead taking an "all of the above" approach. He is predictably bullish on efficiency, noting that McKinsey & Co. released a report in July concluding that replacing inefficient motors, windows, and other energy guzzlers with high-efficiency ones could cut U.S. energy use 23 percent by 2023.
So, if efficiency is so great and saves so much money (leave aside the CO2 part), I ask, why don't businesses do it? "You know, I was raised in an Enlightenment-influenced family," Gore says. "Both my parents were such believers in the preeminence of reason, and I still believe all that." Other people, not so much. Gore offers a disquisition on how U.S. utility regulations make it more profitable to waste two thirds of the energy in the fuel they burn than to capture waste heat and make it move electrons. But there is also the irrationality factor, which drives him crazy. In a poll, he says, 80 percent of CEOs and CFOs said they would not spend money to make their factories more efficient and save money in the long run if it hurt their next-quarter bottom line. "That," says Gore, "is functionally insane. [...]"
(via The must-read solutions book — “Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis” by Al Gore. « Climate Progress
....
Theodor Adorno (1903–1969)“The conversion of all questions of truth into questions of power … has attacked the very heart of the distinction between true and false.”"
Tirado de The must-read solutions book — “Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis” by Al Gore. « Climate Progress: "
Um destes dias até poderemos encontrar isto no discurso público
"One of the oldest rhetorical tricks is to emphasize a point by pretending to deny it.
This notion is so core to rhetoric that the ancient Greeks even had a few related figures of speech named for it — most broadly, apophasis (from the Greek word for “to deny”), the figure of speech that stresses an idea or image by negating it. [...]
There is a related figure, Paralipsis, [...] is a rhetorical figure of speech wherein the speaker or writer invokes a subject by denying that it should be invoked. [...] Paralipsis is usually employed to make a subversive ad hominem attack.
The device is typically used to distance the speaker from unfair claims, while still bringing them up. For instance, a politician might say, “I don’t even want to talk about the allegations that my opponent is a drunk.”
… Proslepsis is an extreme kind of paralipsis that gives the full details of the acts one is claiming to pass over [...]"
Transcrevi isto porque achei o apontamento pedagógico, e por memória.
Tirado de Meet trash journalist Keith Kloor « Climate Progress:
Transcrevi isto porque achei o apontamento pedagógico, e por memória.
Tirado de Meet trash journalist Keith Kloor « Climate Progress:
Sobre a necessidade da prevenção
"Um estudo observacional de 10 anos demonstra que alterações do estilo de vida que conduzam a uma perda de peso mesmo que modesta e a um aumento na actividade física, podem prevenir ou atrasar o início da diabetes tipo II.[...]"
"[...]A conclusão é que podemos fazer algo simples para prevenir esta doença altamente incapacitante e fatal a longo termo. Claro que programas de educação alimentar e de exercício não dão resultados palpáveis em quatro anos, e por isso também não dão votos…
"[...]A conclusão é que podemos fazer algo simples para prevenir esta doença altamente incapacitante e fatal a longo termo. Claro que programas de educação alimentar e de exercício não dão resultados palpáveis em quatro anos, e por isso também não dão votos…
Os governantes preferem investir somas astronómicas em medicação –
cerca de 75 Euros mensais – e em internamentos ou cirurgias, mas que
dão visibilidade de cuidados médicos e … votos."
Não acredito que o motivo seja o que é indicado no último parágrafo (TPC: vejam porquê), mas é relevante que haja médicos a referir que o SNS (e o SRS) não fazem o suficiente no que diz respeito à prevenção.
Ler a nota completa em (recomenda-se o blogue) DIABETES E ESTILOS DE VIDA - Consultório Anti-Envelhecimento
É uma boa sugestão
"[...] propus que se incluísse, nas normas redactoriais, que as matérias oriundas das agências de comunicação fossem assinaladas como tais, como se faz, aliás, para as notícias das clássicas agências de informação como a Reuters, a AFP, ou a Lusa. [...]"
Um pequeno empurrão ("nudge") [ver aqui)] na boa direcção.
Continuar a ler em Bicho Carpinteiro: As agências de comunicação tratadas como as de informação?
Sobre a hipótese de Gaia - Recensões da The New York Review of Books
- The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning, by James Lovelock, Basic Books, 278 pp., $25.00
- James Lovelock: In Search of Gaia, by John Gribbin and Mary Gribbin, Princeton University Press, 262 pp., $24.95
- The Medea Hypothesis: Is Life on Earth Ultimately Self-Destructive?, by Peter Ward, Princeton University Press, 180 pp., $24.95
Interessante, e com boa informação
- A Great Jump to Disaster? - The New York Review of Books (view on Google Sidewiki)
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